POST COVID 19: CHALLENGES FOR INDIA

Since December 2019, when the first case of Covid-19 (the illness caused by SARS CoV-2) was detected in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei province of China, the spread of the virus, also called the China virus or the Wuhan virus by some, has spread to all corners of the globe, causing death and destruction in its wake and severely disrupting the world’s economy. China, which was the only country impacted when the virus first appeared in Wuhan, has now controlled its spread, but large parts of Europe, the US, Africa and Asia to which the virus spread in a later time frame are still grappling with containing the virus. India, with a population in excess of 1.3 billion people has done fairly well in restricting the spread of SARS CoV-2, but like other countries in the world, its economy has taken a severe hit and India now has to grapple with a fresh set of challenges in an increasingly volatile world.

Till the virus hit India, the nation’s major concerns were getting the economy to double digit growth, with the hope of moving on to a USD 5 trillion economy by 2024 or 2025. This appears to be a distant dream now, with the current years projection for economic growth being pegged at a mere 1.9 percent. However, growth for calendar year 2021 is expected to rebound to 7.4%. How to get the economy back on track in a changed international environment will remain the primary focus of the government, while simultaneously also dealing with the earlier challenges on the security and energy front.

Cross Border Terrorism

Despite the onslaught of SARS CoV-2, the sponsors of terror have shown no let up in their activities. Pakistan continues to support cross border terrorism and has not closed any of the camps it has set up for the training of terrorist groups like the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) and others. Pakistan continues to use terrorism as an instrument of its state policy, as seen by repeated attempts being made to infiltrate such elements into India across the Line of Control (LoC) to unleash violence. Some of these terrorists like Masood Azhar and Mohammed Saeed are on the counter-terror map of the world and remain in the list of the world’s most-wanted terrorists, but they continue to find safe refuge in Pakistan. The period 01 January 2020-23 April 2020 saw repeated attempts by terrorist groups to create mayhem in the Valley, most of which were foiled by effective counter terrorism operations which resulted in 50 terrorists being eliminated including several top commanders of JeM and LeT. In the operations conducted, 17 security forces personnel also laid down their lives. During the same period in 2019, a total of 72 terrorists were eliminated, with 59 security forces personnel laying down their lives. While this shows the positive impact of India’s countering terrorism effort, it also is indicative of the fact that there is no let up in the intent of inimical forces to unleash terror on the hapless citizens of the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir.

Ceasefire violations by the Pakistan military remain a constant feature across the Line of Control (LoC), though the Indian Army continues to give an appropriate response for each and every act of transgression. More insidious however, is the use Pakistan is making of the social media to unleash a vicious propaganda war against India. This is being done not only within India, to create communal discord, but also in the Arab world. An example of one such attempt was the creation of a fake account of the Omani Princess HH Dr Mona Fahad Mahmoud Al Said, tweeting about Muslims getting prosecuted in India. While the Omani princess has come out openly and declared the account as fake, many people fell victim to the subterfuge. Many Pakistanis are also posing as Saudi businessmen, to target the Modi government. Pakistan has been actively using the social media as part of its influence operations strategy since long. A marked increase in these efforts took place post 5 August 2019, when the Indian Parliament revoked the provisions of Article 370 and Article 35A, and divided the erstwhile state of J&K into the Union Territory of Ladakh and the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. To create dissonance in the minds of India’s muslim population, these efforts have now significantly increased, suggesting the need for appropriate countermeasures.

There have also been reports that Pakistan is now pushing Coronavirus infected terrorists into India. As per Shri Dilbagh Singh, DGP, Jammu and Kashmir, “…It is a matter of concern that Pakistan is pushing COVID-19 infected militants from across…Till now, Pakistan had been supporting terrorists and now it is exporting coronavirus patients to infect people of Kashmir. This is something on which there is a need to take precaution”. While no concrete proof of such attempts being made by Pakistan are available, such acts by the Pakistan military appear unlikely. Such personnel would invariably come in contact with the normal public in Pakistan as well as their handlers on the border areas prior to induction. A patient suffering from Covid-19 is unlikely to bear the rigour of the journey and the probability of him infecting his own colleagues is far higher than in infecting any person from the Indian side. Perhaps this is a ploy by Pakistan to spread concern within the Indian security establishment, but its practical manifestation is extremely doubtful

The Regional Security Environment

The region continues to simmer with violence, with the Afghan peace process in tatters, and the situation in the Gulf also remaining extremely tenuous. The US-Taliban peace deal is as good as dead, with the Taliban paying scant heed to observing any sort of ceasefire with the Government forces. In fact, the Taliban has even rejected President Ashraf Ghani’s appeal to the group to lay down arms for the Islamic holy month of Ramzan, which began on 24 April 2020.

With the US deeply committed in addressing home concerns in combatting the Coronavirus, it perhaps is less focussed on what is happening in Afghanistan, where Taliban forces continue to attack government troops. Post the signing of the troop withdrawal agreement with the United States in February, attacks by Taliban on Afghan forces recommenced within a week of the ceasefire, though the Taliban has for now, held back on attacking foreign forces. The attacks come  at a time when Afghanistan is reeling with the Coronavirus outbreak and has limited resources to take the necessary measures to control its spread. As per a New York Times report, at least 262 government troops and 50 civilians have lost their lives in April 2020. These are very high casualty figures and do not augur well for peace in the region. We could well be looking into a scenario where Afghanistan slips into civil war. Indian concerns get magnified as a great deal of political capital as well as treasure has been invested by the government of India in building infrastructure in that country, and all that could well go up in smoke. Also of concern is the fact that instability in Afghanistan would greatly increase Pakistani influence in that region. The possibility of some elements of the Taliban jumping in the fray to fight in the Union Territory of J&K after crossing the LoC, cannot be ruled out.

The situation in the Gulf also remains worrisome, as Daesh (Islamic State) remains active in the region along with elements of al Qaeda. Turkey is in conflict with Syrian Government forces which in turn are being supported by Russia and Iran. Relations between Iran and the US continue to remain tense, though thankfully, after the killing of Maj Gen Soleimani in January 2020, the region did not slip into war, which could well have led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and caused serious shortage of energy resources across the world. On 22 April, in a move that could once again stoke conflict, the US President ordered the US Navy to “shoot down and destroy” any Iranian gunboats that harass US ships. This has created yet another flashpoint in the region on the high seas, which could potentially impact the transportation of energy resources through the Strait of Hormuz.

Another factor for consideration is the hostility that exists between Iran and Israel. Israel feels threatened by Iran’s nuclear and precision guided munition (PGM) programme. In Mid-April, Iran also unveiled a range of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), with a range in excess of 1000 kms and which could reach Israel from Iran. Israel considers increased Iranian capability to target Israel as an existential threat and thus could respond unilaterally against Iran to obviate the threat at source. Israel is cognisant of the fact that it was a drone attack by Iran’s proxies that destroyed the Saudi Aramco oil facilities on 14 September 2019, which led to a fifty percent loss of production for about a month and highlighted Iranian drone technology. They thus cannot take lightly, any potential threat from Iran. According to Jonathan Schanzer, Senior Vice President Research of FDD (Foundation for Defence of Democracies), Iran’s PGM programme could be the issue that prompts the region's next war.

All this is taking place in the Gulf in the backdrop of heightened tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with both countries jostling for increased influence in the muslim world. This is playing out in Yemen, where the Saudi forces are embroiled in a military campaign against the Houthi rebels. A unilateral ceasefire was declared by Saudi for two weeks which ended on 22 April, but which was rejected by the Houthi’s. As a condition for agreeing to a ceasefire, the Houthis are demanding a lifting of air and sea blockades imposed by the Saudi coalition to the regions which the Houthis control, but that as yet is not forthcoming. In the meantime, the Saudi led coalition has extended the ceasefire for another four weeks, to support efforts to contain the spread of Covid-19. Yemen is perhaps one of the poorest countries in the world and the conflict is another potential flash point which could spin out of control.

The region is also witnessing a serious slump in the prices of crude oil which will adversely impact all the major oil producers. The Coronavirus pandemic across the globe has led to a slash in demand for oil, which in turn has led to a global economic contraction. Oil prices have tumbled by half this year and saw Brent crude prices hovering between USD 31 - USD 32 per barrel, as the spread of the coronavirus coincided with a bitter price war that saw producers flood the market. Despite a deal reached by oil cartel and allies – known as Opec+ to end the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, oil prices have halved from the 2019 average price of Brent crude which stood at USD 64.26 per barrel and which further slipped to below USD 10 per barrel on 21 April 2020. The drop in oil prices will see a rise as world demand picks up in a few months, but the prices are likely to stabilise at around USD 30 per barrel for Brent crude, well below the average price for Brent crude in 2019. While this will provide some solace to the consumers, especially to India and other countries in South Asia who are not oil producers, it will impact seriously on the economies of West Asia which are dependent of export of crude oil.

Chinese Intransigence

The impact of Covid-19 across the world has not deterred China from seeking to impose its influence in the South China Sea. As the virus originated from China, that country was the first to suffer its consequences, but since then China has recovered from the impact and while its economy has taken a hit, it is still projected to grow at 1.2 per cent for the current year and rebound strongly to 9.2 per cent in 2021. Of concern is the fact that Beijing has ratcheted up pressure on Taiwan, which it seeks to reunite. On 9 February 2020, Chinese fighters and bombers flew around the Taiwan in an apparent show of force—what the Chinese call “island encirclement” drills. The exercise was described by China’s Eastern Theatre Command as a “completely legitimate and necessary action aimed at the current situation in the Taiwan Strait and safeguarding national sovereignty”. Next day, in yet another provocative act, Chinese jets, including J-11 fighters, crossed an unofficial middle line in the Taiwan Strait, forcing the Taiwanese Air Force to scramble its F-16 fighters, duly armed, to counter any potential threat. In early April, a Chinese naval flotilla led by the country’s first aircraft carrier passed by the eastern and southern coasts of Taiwan to carry out drills. These acts are coercive and designed to put pressure on Taiwan at a time when the world is battling the Corona virus.

China is also ramping up pressure on its claim areas in the South China Sea. Chinese trawlers, guarded by China’s coast guard, have been fishing in waters which form part of the EEZ of Indonesia, off the Natunas. In April, a Chinese coast guard ship rammed and sank a Vietnamese fishing boat. China has also approved setting up two districts in areas claimed by Vietnam—the islands and reefs of the Paracel and Spratly Islands, to which Vietnam has lodged a protest. A Chinese government survey ship was also involved in tagging an exploration vessel operated by Petronas, Malaysia's state oil company, in disputed waters in the South China Sea. Chinese belligerence is a deliberate show of force, cocking a snook at the world—and this at a time when the world is engaged in battling the Corona virus.

India: Challenges and Opportunities

India’s internal and external challenges have not undergone any changes, but stand further magnified with the onset of the Coronavirus and its debilitating effect on the nations economy. Internally, attempts continue to be made to weaken the nations synthetic fabric by inimical elements within the country, primarily as an attempt to discredit the government with an eye on the next general elections, slated for 2024. In the event of the ruling dispensation winning the same, it would mean that the main opposition party would be out of power for 15 years—a situation they find unpalatable. External agencies too, do not find the prospect of a strong national government in India to be conducive to their self interest, so such forces also lend support to fissiparous tendencies within the country. The agitations seen on the issue of the Citizenship Amendment Act are a pointer in this direction. A rational criticism of the actions of the Tablighi Jamaat, which paid scant heed to government directives on preventing the spread of the Coronavirus became a vehicle for propaganda, with government actions being seen as targeting India’s muslim community. How a small group of the Tablihji Jamaat became conflated with the larger muslim society of India, of which it does not form even a fraction of one per cent, is a matter of concern, but it points to insidious forces at work to weaken the national fabric. Such efforts to create a communal divide will only gather momentum as we move closer to the 2024 elections, and addressing this issue will remain a major challenge for the government.

The economy has taken a severe hit with the lockdown imposed since 25 March 2020 for a period of three weeks, which was then extended to 3 May 2020. This has led to high disruptions, especially in the unorganised sector, with millions of daily wagers and migrant workers facing the brunt. While all sections of the economy were impacted, the MSMEs (Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises) were the hardest hit and would require special schemes to get back on their feet. Also hit to the verge of collapse are the hospitality and aviation sectors, which will continue to bear the brunt, well after the lock down is lifted. How these sectors are revived will remain the defining challenge for the government.

On the positive side, the handling of the pandemic by the government has been outstanding. The casualty figures, which many thought would be in the millions, have been effectively contained. As of 26 April, while the world has suffered close to three million cases of Covid-19, resulting in over 200,000 fatalities, India has just over 26,000 cases of Covid-19 and  just over 800 fatalities. The lockdown period has given India enough time to educate the public on preventive measures as also to build up its health infrastructure. As of date, India has 700 Covid hospitals and has built up a capacity of 190,000 beds, exclusively for Covid-19 patients. 12,000 ventilators are also available across the country for Covid-19 patients, which are being augmented by another 10,000 ventilators by the end of April. While 80% of the patients report mild symptoms or are asymptomatic, the remaining 20% do need oxygen support and in extreme cases the use of ventilators. Less than 3 per cent of the total cases in hospital would require ventilators and as such, India is adequately placed to deal with any emergency in the months to come.

As the stock markets have taken a hit, with both the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) suffering huge losses, predators are on the prowl to pick up a stake in the Indian market when the prices have bottomed out. In the March quarter, People’s Bank of China (PBoC) bought 1,74,92,909 shares, or 1.01 percent of HDFC limited, at a time when the share prices had dropped significantly. The government was quick to prevent further Chinese predatory moves into India’s financial system and revised India's Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) policy, which now requires approval from the Central Government for all countries bordering India. Such proactive measures augur well for India’s financial stability.

Externally, cross border terrorism remains a major threat for peace and stability in the region. Pakistan, while no longer a conventional military threat, is unlikely to stop using terrorists as an instrument of its foreign policy. The government has taken firm steps in the political, diplomatic, economic and military spheres to counter Pakistani designs, but such measures will need to be persisted with over a period of time and further enhanced to bring about a qualitative change in Pakistani behaviour. More importantly, India would need to negate the vicious propaganda war unleashed by Pakistan to subvert the minds of a section of Indians as also to show India in a negative light across the world. India’s counter measures through influence operations, encompassing both public affairs and public diplomacy, would require an organisational structure for effective execution. It may be worth considering the creation of a perception management organisation for the purpose.

With respect to China, India’s major concern is China’s predatory moves along its land borders and its increasing presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). India is committed to free and open navigation in the Indo-Pacific and is coordinating its efforts towards this end with all concerned countries to achieve this outcome. Of particular interest is the Quad, a grouping of US, Japan, Australia and India, which is likely to grow in momentum and capability in the years to come. India will also have to be mindful of its land borders with China and sustain an adequate force to dissuade China from any hostile action. It is appreciated that the government would require huge inflow of funds to get the economy back on its feet in a quick time frame and it has been suggested by some that the defence budget could be slashed. This however will prove to be counter-productive in the long run as India faces a multitude of security challenges from its inimical neighbours. It must also be remembered that military capability takes years to build and for short-term gains, it would not be advisable to weaken our defence capability.

In conclusion, India’s handling of the pandemic has raised its stature on the world stage. A revised world order, following the pandemic, could well see the world’s acceptance of India as a country deserving a seat on the High Table.

Published in IF Journal, May June 2020.

MILITARY DIMENSION TO THE CORONAVIRUS

In December 2019, the first case of Covid-19 (the illness caused by SARS CoV-2) was detected in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei province of China. The Chinese media has stated that the virus originated from bats, pinning the source of origin to the food market in Wuhan which sold a number of wild animals including bats. But all this is in the realm of speculation. It would not be out of order to consider other possibilities of the source of outbreak of the virus, especially one having military connotations.

Could the virus have originated from one of the virology laboratories located in Wuhan? Could this have been a planned trial by the Chinese of a biological weapon which could carry out mass destruction? Or was this an accidental leak? This too, is a matter of conjecture, but as the potential consequences of the spread of the Wuhan virus are so cataclysmic, each and every possibility needs thorough examination and cannot be brushed under the carpet.

Let us examine the hypothesis that this was a planned Chinese biological warfare weapon, which they let loose on the world, first exposing their own residents to the virus, but restricting its impact so that neither Beijing nor Shanghai was impacted. The capacity of the virus to kill is limited, and the data from China shows that over 80% of COVID-19 cases are either asymptomatic or have mild disease. But the fact that the virus spreads very fast once it is introduced to a population, makes it lethal. As an example, if one million people are infected in an area, while 80 percent will recover quickly, most not even knowing that they are sick, at least 200,000 will require hospitalisation, which is a very large number putting a huge strain on the civic infrastructure and causing governments to impose a lockdown to prevent further spread. The fatalities will be even lesser, perhaps in the range of 20,000 or so, but the impact on the nation’s economy will be crippling. Today, besides India, the US, Europe, Japan, ASEAN, the Gulf countries and others have been serious impacted, with their economies taking a severe hit.

The Chinese economy, while hit to some extent, appears to have recovered and is projected to grow at 2.5 per cent. While this is the lowest rate of growth for China in decades, it is far better than the projected rate of growth in Europe and India, which is close to zero percent. So, if this was a planned biological attack by the Chinese, then they have succeeded in full measure as the Western economies stand crippled and may well go into recession. This puts China in pole position.

Major stock exchanges across the world have taken a drubbing with the  Coronavirus pandemic shaving off nearly a third of the global market cap. But interestingly, the Chinese stock exchange has emerged almost unscathed amid the global market rout. With  supply chains and global demand being disrupted, a great deal of uncertainty has been created over the long term. China appears to be in a good position to weather the storm and emerge as the market leader, post the pandemic. With stocks tumbling, China is being stocks at reduced rates and in India, has already picked up a one per cent stake in HDFC. 

In mid January, President Trump signed an initial trade deal with China, bringing to a close, the first chapter of a protracted and economically damaging trade war, which was hurting China’s economy. Based on the terms of the agreement, China agreed to buy USD 12.5 billion in U.S. agricultural products in 2020, and a further USD 19.5 billion in 2021. However, with the pandemic raging across the world, the trade deal is as good as dead, which will be a source of dissatisfaction to the US.

Beijing has ratcheted up the pressure on Taiwan, which it seeks to reunite with the mainland. In February, while carrying out military drills, Chinese jets crossed an unofficial middle line in the Taiwan Strait. A day earlier, Chinese fighters and bombers flew around the island. Then in early April, a Chinese naval flotilla led by the country’s first aircraft carrier passed by the eastern and southern coasts of Taiwan to carry out drills. These acts are coercive and designed to put pressure on Taiwan at a time when the world is battling the corona virus. China is also ramping up pressure on its claim areas in the South China Sea. Chinese belligerence is a deliberate show of force, cocking a snook at the world.

Coincidentally, at this time, the US naval fleet has been hit by the coronavirus. Of the 11 aircraft carriers in the U.S. Navy's fleet, the crew in three of the aircraft carriers are reported to have been infected. More than half the crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt have been disembarked at Guam, which shows how a virus can impact military capability. So, at a time when the Chinese are getting belligerent in the Indo-Pacific, the US naval fleet finds a part of its crew disabled due to the coronavirus. The USS Ronald Reagan, presently docked in Yokosuka, Japan, is for the moment the only available aircraft carrier to project power in the western Pacific, to counter potential hostilities from China.

India needs to be concerned as China claims large chunks of Indian Territory in Arunachal Pradesh and is in illegal occupation of the Aksai Chin. If China is moving in the direction of using biological weapons, then India needs to be prepared accordingly. This is no longer in the realm of science fiction as portrayed in the film Contagion. Biological weapons can destroy a nations economy and seriously degrade its military potential. It is a reality thrust upon us, which we can ignore only at our peril.

Social Media: A Tool for Influencing Attitudes

From time immemorial, information has played a vital role in preserving the security of the state. In India, a veritable treatise was written on the subject by Chanakya in his Arthashastra, some time between 200-300 BCE. In China, the writings of Sun Tzu, who preceded Chanakya by about two hundred years, also expounded on these principles. The importance of information in statecraft and warfare thus has historical roots.

In the present times, the centrality of communications and information technology in war-fighting capability has led to the concept of Information Warfare (IW), presenting both new opportunities and new vulnerabilities in conflict. IW had three traditional focus areas. These were (a) Denial and protection of information; (b) Exploitation and ability to attack enemy information and data systems. This also embraces Electronic Warfare (EW) and attacks on computer networks and enemy power systems; and (c) Deception by various means, including spoofing, imitation and distortion. To this has now been added the fourth element: The ability to influence attitudes. All activities carried out under IW are called information operations.

Influencing Attitudes

The great Indian scriptural text, the Mahabharata, gives an account of how information influenced the course of the war. On the tenth day of the battle, when Bhishma fell, Dronacharya was made the commander of the armies of King Dhritarashtra. Drona was a mighty warrior with exceptional prowess in the battlefield and the Pandava’s felt that he would be insurmountable in battle. So a ruse was initiated whereby Drona was informed that Ashwatthama had been killed in battle. It was an elephant by the name of Ashwatthama which had been killed, but Ashwatthama was also the name of Drona’s son. When Drona was given the news, he assumed his son had been killed and in his grief stricken state, he became vulnerable and was killed. This was perhaps one of the earliest instances where information was used to influence attitudes and decision making.

The ability to influence attitudes is part of what is termed as psychological operations. While this has been part of warfare since ancient times, as seen by the manner in which Drona was killed, in today’s environment, the overarching spread of communications has made psychological warfare a very potent tool of statecraft. The Chinese strategist Sun Tzu laid emphasis on this aspect of warfare in his famous treatise, The Art of War.

“To fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting”.

The above strategy as expounded by Sun Tzu, aimed to subdue the enemy’s troops without fighting, in capturing their cities without laying siege to them and in overthrowing their kingdom without lengthy operations in the field. Psychological warfare was an important component of such a war fighting philosophy.

Centre of Gravity

Along with information operations of which influencing attitudes is a subset, another term—Centre of Gravity needs to be expounded upon. The concept enumerated by Clausewitz in his theory of war, was “A Centre of Gravity is always found in where the mass is concentrated the most densely, and which presents the most effective target for a blow”. This implied looking for the strongest mass of the enemy and destroying it thus making it easier to subdue the enemy. The emphasis was on determining the critical strength of the enemy. Over the years, an understanding of what constitutes the Centre of Gravity, has undergone a radical change. Today, the Centre of Gravity is viewed not so much as the source of the enemy’s strength, but his critical vulnerabilities. In the present age, the population of a nation is oft conceived as a critical vulnerability to be exploited and information operations are increasingly being targeted against indiscriminate population groups to influence attitudes, perceptions, and behaviour within the country and externally in favour of national goals and objectives during peace-time and in times of conflict. As an example, in the Vietnam War, the centre of gravity was correctly perceived as being US public opinion. The image of the Americans as imperial forces facilitated the fading support for the American war in Vietnam. The Social Media plays an important role towards this end.

Role of US, China and Others in India’s Neighbourhood

Today, influencing attitudes is an important part of the war fighting doctrine of all major powers. The United States seeks to influence the peoples of foreign countries through public diplomacy (PD) efforts. Attempts to influence the home audience is termed as Public Affairs. These activities are carried out by different organisations. Public diplomacy is viewed as often having a long-term perspective that requires working through the exchange of people and ideas to build lasting relationships and understanding the United States and its culture, values, and policies. The tools used are social and cultural and also the exploitation of the media, especially the internet.

Influencing Attitudes is also an important component of Chinese strategic thought. This was first enunciated in the Political Works Regulations 2003, for the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA), and updated in 2010. It addresses the importance of waging the “three warfares” - psychological warfare, public opinion warfare, and legal warfare, committing the PRC to expand the political areas of conflict from the purely military to the more political, with the foundation for the same being laid during peace time. This enables exploitation in war to seek an early end to conflict on favourable terms, and if possible to win without fighting. The Chinese tried this in the India-China face off at Doklam in 2017, where they resorted to threats and coercion, but as India held firm, the Chinese were forced to back down.

Pakistan too employs the usage of psychological warfare to influence attitudes, especially against India as also to promote its interests in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), coordinates all such activities. The United Kingdom, Russia, Israel and other powers too, employ their agencies to promote their respective national interests. Of late, the Islamic world, though not a monolith, has also become a major player in the game of influencing attitudes, especially on communal lines. Terrorist groups like al Qaeda, Islamic State (IS) and others also make extensive use of social media to reach a wide audience, which has been made possible by advances in communication technologies.

The Indian Experience

The social media can influences the hearts and minds of a target audience, and cause severe disruption. Low-cost, easily accessible social media tools act as a force multiplier by increasing networking and organising capabilities. The ability to rapidly disseminate graphic images and ideas through applications such as WhatsApp, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, blogs, and many others has put the power to shape narratives in the hands of the individual. This has both positive and negative consequences. While a more open and democratic spread of information is a necessary component to informed decision making, it can also transform into a strategic weapon in the hands of terrorists, insurgent groups, anti social elements or governments engaged in conflict.

India finds herself in a very vulnerable position today. As a young democracy, with a heterogeneous population, the nation is susceptible to divisive forces, which seek to divide the country on caste, communal, linguistic and racial faultiness. Individual misuse of the social media is really not a matter of great concern, though that too can cause fissures in society. The real threat arises when groups, organisations and states conspire to use the social media in an organised and systematic manner to promote a specific narrative against India.

An example of a systematic campaign to vilify the government could be seen in the events of 2015, when the media was agog with news that Churches were being attacked across the country. Much was made of a minor fire which broke out in a church in Dilshad Gardens on 1 December 2014, or the pelting of stones by a couple of people in a drunken brawl in January 2015, a fire which charred a crib in a church in Rohini, and a handful of other such instances. Minor theft in a church in Vasant Kunj was blown up to such an extent that the Home Minister ordered a full scale investigation, when all that had been stolen was a vessel costing no more than Rs 250. Exaggerated claims that all churches were under attack was a well designed media campaign by interested groups to embarrass the government and vitiate the environment before the Delhi elections scheduled for 7 February 2015. In March 2015, a 71 year old was raped in a church in Ranaghat, near the India-Bangladesh border, which falls in Nadia District of West Bengal and this too was attributed to the policies of the Central Government, though subsequent events proved that it was a case of rape and dacoity carried out by criminals from Bangladesh, all of whom were arrested. It was no surprise that after a few months, the entire campaign died down, but a lot of damage had been done to India’s secular credentials.

The social media was also exploited to create a rift between Hindus and Muslims. A barrage of misinformation was let loose that certain Hindu groups were deliberately targeting Muslims for killing of cows. While a few incidents did take place, a case in point being that of Mohammad Akhlaq, who was beaten to death by a mob in September 2015 on suspicions of stealing a cow calf and slaughtering it on the occasion of Eid, much of what has come out in the print, audio visual and social media, has ben exaggerated, pointing to forces at work, intent on destabilising the country. Instances of cow smugglers, firing and killing villagers do not find mention, but villagers protecting their flock come in for harsh treatment. In October 2018, a group of Muslim boys got into a tussle with an adjoining group of Valmikis and in the tussle, an eight year old Muslim boy lost his life. This was made into a case of mob lynching, despite all evidence being available that it was a brawl between kids, aged between 12 to 14 years. Such incidents gain mileage during elections, in order to polarise society and cater to the vote bank of certain political parties. They lose salience when the elections are over, pointing clearly to nefarious designs by certain groups and organisations.

The social media has also been used to aggressively peddle the narrative of attacks on Dalits. While cases of abuse do exist, most cases are random brawls, where one of the victims is later found to be a Dalit. And then the narrative is blown out of proportion. The case of suicide by Rohith Vermula, a PhD candidate in the University of Hyderabad in January 2016 is telling. The Wire headlined the unfortunate suicide as “My Birth is My Fatal Accident: Rohith Vemula's Searing Letter is an Indictment of Social Prejudice”. The BBC picked it up, headlining the event as “Rohith Vemula: The student who died for Dalit rights”. Many others followed suit and the social media had a field day in keeping the issue alive. But in all this, the facts somehow were conveniently forgotten. An investigation into the incident by a one-man judicial enquiry commission setup by the HRD ministry revealed that: “Rohith Vemula was not a Schedule Caste, action by university authorities didn’t trigger his suicide, there was no undue pressure from former HRD minister Smriti Irani or BJP leader Bandaru Dattatreya in the case”. The party in power in the state at this time was the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), led by KC Rao, which was in opposition to the Centre. Yet, it was the Centre which received the flak for so called anti-Dalit policies. Obviously, there was an attempt to create a caste divide, with ulterior motives.

On an equally insidious note, we had the case of communal riots in Kokrajhar, Assam, becoming a cause for targeting people from Northeast India in Bengaluru and Hyderabad, forcing thousands of them to flee for their lives in 2012. Rumours were spread by word of mouth, text messages (SMS) and social networking sites such as FaceBook, with many students from the Northeast receiving threat messages on their mobile phones. In Mumbai, hoodlums struck at the heart of the nation's pride, when they vandalised the iconic Amar Jawan Jyoti memorial near CST. If an incident in Assam can lead to retaliation in Bangalore, Hyderabad and Mumbai, then it indicates serious flaws in our security structure which are open to exploitation by both external agencies and hostile forces within the country.

The above examples highlight how the mainstream media as well as the social media are being exploited by vested interests to create discord and ill-will within the national polity. By the time the truth comes out, certain prejudices have already been imprinted in the minds of the citizen.

Pakistan has been active in the social media in spreading disinformation and in inciting Kashmiri Muslims. They have an organisation created for the purpose, which is used to create mistrust and fuel fear in the minds of the muslim community on a whole range of issues through planned misinformation and disinformation. The project is led by their inter services intelligence (ISI). While Indian agencies are aware of what Pakistan is doing, countering the same in a world where the media is open and free is proving to be a herculean task.

The Road Ahead

In the effort to shape the information space, the ‘softer’ elements of power, in both public diplomacy and public affairs play the dominant role. Shaping attitudes, both for external and domestic audiences requires a strategic focus and must be carried out at the national level. There is a need for information dominance which perhaps points to the requirement of the Prime Minister also having a National Information Advisor on the lines of the National Security Advisor. Message articulation remains an important function. As Josef Joffe, editor of Die Zeit has written, “Today, the most interesting types of power do not come out of the barrel of a gun’” and that a much bigger payoff can be achieved by “getting others to want what you want”. It must also be understood that influencing attitudes is not a substitute for capability. In advertising terms, the product has to live up to its brand image, otherwise it will lose its credibility. 

The social media as a tool is value neutral and could be used by any player. Fake narratives and propaganda unleashed by hostile agencies thus need to be countered in real time. So, what can be done to stem the misuse of the social media and the involvement of external agencies in India’s internal matters? Freedom of the press is a given and no action should ever be contemplated to curb the same. What may appear to be a very benign attempt to curb press freedom, for the very best of motives, will eventually lead to muzzling of the press and should not be resorted to. The media, despite its many weaknesses remains one of the strongest pillars of Indian democracy. In any case, seeing the diversity of the country and the proliferation of media channels, there are self-correct mechanisms within the system.

To prevent subversion of the Indian public by external agencies and by vested interests within the country, the foremost weapon is communication of the truth in real time. Post the abrogation of Article 35A and the provisions of Article 370, a vicious propaganda campaign was unleashed by  Pakistan and others, denigrating the Indian action. To counter the lies spread by such agencies, DoorDarshan gave live coverage of the ground situation in Kashmir through daily programmes called “The Kashmir Truth,” and its Hindi version, “Kashmir Ka Sach”. Lies propagated by external agencies on the social media were busted by DoorDarshan, especially when hostile actors used fake images from other parts of the world and passed them off as coming from Kashmir. More such initiatives are the need of the hour.

The spread of fake news in WhatsApp, Face Book and other portals is another cause of concern. While shutting down the App is an option, it would also deprive the millions of bonafide users from using the same. In 2019 itself, Facebook removed over 5.4 billion fake accounts, along with removing millions of hate speech posts. Fake Twitter handles have also been removed through government intervention. WhatsApp has also limited the number of forwards to five entities and this has now been further reduced to one. The receiver now comes to know that the message is forwarded as the same is imprinted in the message. It is a matter for consideration whether the name of the original sender should be in the forward along with the date and time such message originated. This would eliminate a large number of hoax and fake messages.

But perhaps the need of the hour is media literacy to combat the menace of hoax messages. Besides the government, concerned citizens groups as well as popular platforms could help citizens discern between real news and hoaxes. India’s legal structures also need to gear up to the challenge. If offenders are prosecuted in a quick time frame, it would help in creating an appropriate deterrent. Through education and updated cyber laws, citizens would tend to be more responsible and digital literacy across the board would increase. That perhaps, is the best way forward to combat this menace.

For SPMRF

THE TYRANNY OF THE MOB

The Constitution of India, adopted on 26 November 1949, is perhaps one of the most liberal documents which affirms the idea of India, with the Preamble to the Constitution making a powerful statement of intent. The words are indeed stirring and bring out the grandeur of a process of thought which encompassed a set of beliefs and principles that encapsulated the idea of Dharma and Righteousness and which have, since ages, been the bedrock of India’s civilisational ethos.

The Preamble to the Constitution, when it was adopted read as under: 

WE, THE PEOPLE OF INDIA, having solemnly resolved to constitute India into a SOVEREIGN  DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC and to secure to all its citizens:

JUSTICE, social, economic and political;

LIBERTY of thought, expression, belief, faith, and worship;

EQUALITY of status and of opportunity;

and to promote among them all

FRATERNITY assuring the dignity of the individual and the unity and integrity of the Nation;

The words SOCIALIST and SECULAR were added by the 42nd Amendment to the Constitution in 1976, to make the preamble read as "sovereign, socialist, secular, democratic republic" and the words "unity of the nation" was also changed to read “unity and integrity of the nation”.

At its very commencement, hence, the idea of India being a state for all communities and for all religious groups was enshrined in the Constitution. This, of course, was applicable to citizens of India and not to non-citizens. The partition of India, however, happened on religious grounds and Pakistan was created on the basis of religion, as a Muslim state. This left a large number of Hindus, Christians, Sikhs and other religious minorities in Pakistan, who were vulnerable and whose very existence was threatened.

In 1955, the Government of India passed the Citizenship Act which provided two means for foreigners to acquire Indian citizenship. People from the earlier undivided India, who had come across from Pakistan as refugees were given a means of registration after seven years of residency in India. Those from other countries were given a means of naturalisation after twelve years of residency. The Citizenship Act was further amended after the Assam Accord of 1955, when the Rajiv Gandhi led government agreed to identify foreign citizens, remove them from the electoral roles, and expel them from the country. The Citizenship Act was further amended in 1992, 2003, 2005 and 2015.

In December 2003, the Vajpayee led NDA government passed the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2003, wherein illegal immigrants were made ineligible to apply for citizenship by registration or by naturalisation. Their children too were declared as illegal immigrants. The 2003 amendment also mandated the Government of India to create and maintain a National Register of Citizens. The Bill received support from all sections of India’s polity, with the then leader of the opposition, Dr Manmohan Singh stating, during the debate in Parliament, that conditions for grant of citizenship to refugees belonging to the minority communities in Bangladesh and other countries who had faced persecution, should be made liberal.

After the BJP led NDA alliance came to power in 2014, a Bill was introduced in parliament to  amend the citizenship law, to make the non-Muslim migrants from Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh eligible for Indian citizenship. The Bill was passed by the Lok Sabha but could not be passed in the Rajya Sabha. It was reintroduced in the Lok Sabha on 19 July 2016 as the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2016 and was thereafter referred to a Joint Parliamentary Committee on 12 August 2016, which submitted its report to Parliament on 7 January 2019. While the Bill was passed by the Lower House on 8 January 2019, it was pending for consideration and passing by the Upper House, but lapsed consequent to the dissolution of 16th Lok Sabha.

With the formation of the 17th Lok Sabha, the Union Cabinet cleared the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2019, on 4 December 2019 for introduction in Parliament. The Bill was introduced in the 17th Lok Sabha on 9 December 2019 and was passed on 10 December 2019, with 311 MPs voting in favour and 80 against the Bill. On 11 December 2019, the bill was passed by the Rajya Sabha with 125 votes in favour and 105 votes against it. After receiving assent from the President of India, the Bill became an Act on 12 December 2019.

Protests have broken out by some sections of society on the Citizens (Amendment) Act (CAA), mostly by people who are unaware of what the Act actually entails. Imaginary fears have been aroused and despite repeated assurances by the government, including by Prime Minister Modi himself, that the Act is not intended against any Citizen of India, but is only intended to grant citizenship to a small group of people who have faced religious persecution in the Islamic Republics of Pakistan and Afghanistan and in Bangladesh which has Islam as its state religion, the protests continue in some parts of the country. This gives rise to the belief that indeed, the protests are motivated, with a hidden agenda behind them.

It is worth noting that the CAA does not violate any provision of the Constitution, as is being suggested by some. Here, false concerns have been flagged that the CAA is in violation of Articles 14, 15 and 21 of the Constitution of India. The CAA simply defines who can be considered an immigrant and has reduced the time period of legitimate stay for consideration for citizenship from 11 years to 5 years. A clause has also been introduced that such people cannot be prosecuted. This in no way is violative of Article 14, which states "The State shall not deny to any person equality before the law or the equal protection of the laws within the territory of India”. The Indian citizen faces no discrimination on this count. With respect to the illegal immigrants, the CAA again is not violative of Article 14 as the concept of equality applies to those who are similarly placed. The CAA is for persecuted minorities from Islamic countries and all such minorities are being treated equally. Article 15 is only applicable to Indian citizens, so its provisions have not been violated. Similarly, Article 21, which states “No person shall be deprived of his life or personal liberty except according to a procedure established by law” has also not been violated. There was also no infirmity with respect to the passing of the Bill as it was done after due diligence and debate and was passed by both Houses of Parliament. In any case, whether the CAA is constitutionally valid is a matter which has been placed before the Apex Court and therefore, it would behove all concerned not to pre-judge the issue. 

It is also being alleged that the CAA violates India’s secular character, as enshrined in the preamble to the Indian Constitution. It does not take away any rights of Indian citizens and has only been enacted to give citizenship rights to the hapless minorities of three Islamic countries who faced religious persecution, being non-muslim. No less a person than Mahatma Gandhi had given such an assurance to the Hindus and Sikhs who had been left behind in Pakistan due to the division of the country on a communal basis. This assurance was also repeated by Mr Nehru, so it is not something new. The CAA thus seeks to address a historical wrong and provide some element of relief to a small group of people who have been eking out an existence in India. It was not their fault that they were forced to stay behind in an Islamic country due to force of circumstances. They deserve empathy and support and that is what the CAA intends to give. In any case, the CAA does not prevent Muslims from other countries getting Indian citizenship for which separate provisions of the Citizenship Act exist.

Within India, the coordinated nature of the protests once again indicates a great deal of prior planning to enable simultaneous execution at multiple points across the country. Interestingly, most people who form the large crowds collected at various places are for the most part unaware of what the issue is about against which they are protesting. Obviously, the crowds have not come spontaneously for a cause in which they believe in, but have been collected together through financial or other inducement to partake in the protest. 

What is being witnessed in the protests against the CAA is a classic case of information warfare, to shape the information environment. The opinion of a large segment of India’s youth, especially its students have been influenced to believe that the CAA will deprive millions of Muslims from their Indian citizenship. Many students also believe that the CAA is aimed at appeasing Hindu nationalists. Nothing could be further from the truth but the way false information has not only been spread but found a great deal of credibility among vast segments of society, points to forces which are inimical to Indian interests and which are working to destabilise the country. Innocent youth have been caught up in this vicious propaganda, as have other segments of society, especially segments of the Muslim community

The manner of protests also points to forces at work which are working against India’s unity and integrity. While Article 19 of the Indian Constitution guarantees the right to freedom of speech and expression and to assemble peaceably without arms, such rights are not absolute and cannot impinge on the rights of other citizens. Blocking off of public roads as a symbol of protest thus violates Article 19, as the rights of others to use that road have been compromised. Burning of buses and public and private property also does not come within the ambit of freedom of expression. But most importantly, when such protesters demand turning back a validly passed Act in Parliament, and state that they will not allow the government to function unless such an Act is abrogated, they are striking at the very heart of Indian democracy, with a view to derailing India’s democratic structure. Under no circumstances can a few thousand people getting together to spread anarchy, be allowed to derail the will of the people of India. This is clearly unacceptable. 

This is not to state that dissent is an illegitimate activity. Dissent against the government is clearly permissible by the Constitution and is a legitimate part of democratic functioning. This facet was reiterated by Justice DY Chandrachud, a sitting Judge of the Supreme Court of India. Speaking on the 15th Justice PD Desai Memorial Lecture, on ‘The Hues That Make India: From Plurality to Pluralism,’ Justice Chandrachud said: “The blanket labelling of dissent as anti-national or anti-democratic strikes at the heart of our commitment to protect constitutional values and the promotion of deliberative democracy”. He further added, “The destruction of spaces for questioning and dissent destroys the basis of all growth–political, economic, cultural and social. In this sense, dissent is a safety valve of democracy.”

What Justice Chandrachud said is all to the good, but it implies also that the means of protest and the means used to dissent must be in conformity with law. When protesters assemble in public spaces and deny to the rest of the populace the right to use those public spaces, then it is not dissent but anarchy. When protesters misuse their freedom of expression to spread hate and vitriol and sow divisions among communities, it is again not dissent but anarchy. And when protesters use public platforms to publicly seek the break up of India, it is, once again, not dissent but anarchy.

The Government is duty bound to uphold the Constitution of India. It is duty bond to ensure the unity and integrity of India. It is duty bound to ensure to all its citizens, Justice, Liberty and Equality. It must therefore do its duty with diligence and secure the maximum good for the maximum people. It must never ever submit to the tyranny of the mob.

Published in the India Foundation Journal, March April 2020.

NEED TO COUNTER MALICIOUS CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE CAA

The protests against the Citizens Amendment Act have been going on for quite some time, with most protesters having little idea of what they are protesting about. The issues relating to the Amendment of the Citizens Act have been discussed in the print and audio-visual media in detail. In effect, the amendment merely seeks to provide relief to minorities of three Islamic countries, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh, who have fled and sought shelter in India on account of religious persecution. All that the amendment has done is one, define who can be considered a migrant. Two, reduce the time period of legitimate stay for consideration for citizenship from 11 years to 5 years and three, to bring a clause that such people cannot be prosecuted. But despite the factual position being known, imaginary fears are continually being fuelled, which has created a sense of unease in the minds of a section of society.

One of the canards being spread is that the amendment to the Act violates Articles 14, 15 and 21 of the Indian Constitution. This is patently false. The amendment is only designed to assist persecuted minorities from the relevant countries to acquire citizenship in a faster time frame and does not discriminate amongst that class of people. Therefore, it is not violative of Article 14. As the Act is not applicable to Indian citizens, it does not violate Article 15. On similar grounds, it is not violative of Article 21, as the amendment to the Act has no bearing on the citizens rights and liberties which remain intact as hitherto fore. It must also be noted that the amendment to the Citizenship Act was passed by both houses of Parliament, and there is no infirmity with respect to the procedures involved. Whether the CAA is constitutionally valid is a matter which is before the Apex Court and therefore, it would behove all concerned not to pre-judge the issue. 

Another canard being spread is that the amendment violates India’s secular character, as enshrined in the preamble to the Indian Constitution. This again is false. The amendment is designed to give citizenship to those hapless minorities, who have been religiously persecuted in countries which have become Islamic states. It caters to address a historical injustice, for which no less a person than Mahatma Gandhi had given such an assurance. This assurance was also repeated by Mr Nehru, so it is not something new. The amendment also does not prevent Muslims from other countries getting Indian citizenship for which separate provisions of the Citizenship Act exist.

The third canard is that many citizens will be deprived of their citizenship. This canard is absurd, with the Prime Minister himself reiterating time and again that the amendment to the Act will not impact any Indian citizen, but still this fear mongering is being encouraged. It is evident then, that the protests are being engineered with a motive to deliberately invoke a feeling of insecurity amongst a section of society, create communal disharmony and fuel discontent.

The coordinated manner in which false information is being spread points to sinister designs at work to weaken the credibility of the government and to undermine the secular ethos of India. The protests being carried out across the country receive continuous media coverage, but every event shown by the media may not be a true reflection of Indian society. It only represents those who have come out on the street. Apprehensions appear to have been propagated by vested interests  to give an impression that all is not well. In this, the backing of foreign powers also appears probable. People are being instigated to protest, which may not be in the best interests of society.

An analysis of the social media indicates that a large part of messaging in Facebook and Twitter is coming from across the border in Pakistan. While a Pakistani citizen has full rights to comment on events in India, it seems inconceivable that so many citizens of a foreign country will suddenly get so involved in the affairs of a neighbouring country. The systematic and coordinated manner in which this activity is being carried out, points to an organisation at work, which is actively producing content and then disseminating it.

Within India, the coordinated nature of the protests once again indicates a great deal of prior planning to enable simultaneous execution at multiple points across the country. Interestingly, most people who form the large crowds collected at various places are for the most part unaware of what the issue is about against which they are protesting. Obviously, the crowds have not come spontaneously for a cause in which they believe in, but have been collected together through financial or other inducement to partake in the protest. 

What is being witnessed in the protests against the CAA is a classic case of information warfare, to shape the information environment. The opinion of a large segment of India’s youth, especially its students have been influenced to believe that the CAA will deprive millions of Muslims from their Indian citizenship. Many students also believe that the CAA is aimed at appeasing Hindu nationalists. Nothing could be further from the truth but the way false information has not only been spread but found a great deal of credibility among vast segments of society, points to forces which are inimical to Indian interests and which are working to destabilise the country. Innocent youth have been caught up in this vicious propaganda, as have other segments of society, especially segments of the Muslim community. 

There is a need for an effective perception management campaign by the government as also by vast segments of civil society to counteract this vicious propaganda unleashed against the CAA. This is the knowledge age, where information is a key determinant. We need to ensure that information is not used as a weapon against the state. It would be appropriate if the right lessons are now learnt from the protests that have take place on the issue of the CAA so that preventive action is taken before hand, before the situation can get out of control.