A VISION FOR BHARAT

The Union Budget 2023-24 has been characterised as the first budget for "Amrit Kaal"— A vision to see a transformed Bharat by the time the nation celebrates its Independence centenary on 15 August 2047. For the first time, we have a long-term road map of what Bharat should be in terms of its human and developmental index, with clear markers for reaching the desired end state over the course of the next quarter century.

This, by itself is a quantum leap forward from the incremental development policies followed for the most part since 1947. There was a hesitancy in envisioning a great and prosperous Bharat, which perhaps was a result of a socialist mind-set, mired in a philosophy that pedalled poverty as virtue and derided wealth as being sinful and corrupting. For decades since independence,  the state set about controlling the means of production and telling the people what, how and how much they could produce and at what cost. The bureaucracy became all powerful as the arbiters of the nation's destiny and this soon morphed into a political-bureaucratic-criminal nexus. 

This was a recipe for disaster and by 1990, the nation was on the verge of bankruptcy. Then came the era of reforms, which since the last decade, have taken on a more focussed approach with major initiatives like the rolling out of the GST and the JAM trinity (Jan Dhan Yojana which has provided access to India's poor to the banking sector, Aadhar—a unique biometric identifier and the Mobile penetration). This has enabled targeted provision of benefits to millions below the poverty line with near zero pilferage and brought about a sense of inclusivity to an unparalleled extent. Rural housing, electricity access, toilets for all, are but a few of the myriad schemes which has seen wide penetration across the length and breadth of Bharat in a truly transformative manner. 

Budget 2023-24 builds on the India story which saw a rejuvenation in 2014 after a decade of stalled economic reforms. There is renewed focus on digitisation, indigenous defence manufacture, green energy, transparency in government, skilling of the work force, education sector reforms and the like. A host of initiatives have been announced to unleash the full potential of all citizens. In this new Bharat, there  is little doubt that every citizen will stand up to be counted. But a slew of challenges remain.

It would be naive to think that the major powers will look on benignly as India moves ahead. A strong and economically powerful Bharat poses a threat to the economic interests of other powers. An Atmanirbhar Bharat would be an economic challenger, and with defence indigenisation taking place at a rapid rate, a rival to the worlds military industrial complex as an arms exporter. So, there will be attempts made by both India's enemies as well as those with whom India has friendly relations, but who may view India as a serious competitor in future, to sabotage the Bharat growth story. An inkling of what the coming year holds can be seen in attempts being made to create rift in society by inciting the public. The ham-handed manner in which the BBC tried to inflame passions by making a documentary on the post-Godhra riots of 2002, is a case in point. Another is the hit job done by a US based short-seller on the Adani business group. We are now seeing fringe Khalistani elements raising their ugly heads in a clear bid at destabilising the country. We are likely to see radical Muslim elements within the country creating discord over inane issues. There will be others with perceived grievances, who will be funded by external actors like the George Soros Open Society Foundation, the Ford Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation, all of whom, through a network of NGOs, will attempt to spread a divisive agenda. And in all this they will receive support from both China and Pakistan, who have their own axe to grind. Unfortunately, there will be elements of certain political parties who have their own agenda, who will also lend political support to such groups.

But these challenges are an intrinsic part of trying to create a strong and vibrant Bharat. While the Government can provide the vision and the policy support, it is also up to each and every citizen to rise to the occasion, to achieve the objectives of Atmanirbharta. The nations public and private sectors too will have to play their role. The same goes for the nation's bureaucracy. Can they measure up to the Prime Minister's vision and play an enabling and supportive role? Therein lies the challenge. 

Published in the India Foundation Journal, 1 March 2023

The Ongoing Russo-Ukraine War: Taking Stock after one Year

On 24 February 2022, the Russian military carried out a four pronged attack on Ukraine, setting in motion a string of geopolitical events which reverberated across the globe. Today, as a consequence of the Russian invasion, new alliances are being formed, Russia has been placed under sanctions, Europe and Japan are militarising, China has moved closer to Russia and India is poised delicately, having to balance its relations with Russia which has been a long-term friend and ally as also with the United States and the West, with which India is seeking closer collaboration in the defence and economic spheres, especially with respect to cooperation in the field of upper end technology.

The four-front Russian invasion of 24 February was marked by a ground attack with mechanised forces from the North from Belarus towards Kyiv, another assault from the Northeast towards Kharkiv, a Southeastern thrust towards the Donbas region onto Donetsk and Luhansk and a Southern thrust from the South, from Crimea. All the attacks were supported by air power. The objective was not simple capture of territory, but to execute a regime change in Kyiv and instal a government which would be friendly to Russia. 

Most Russians regard Ukraine as a country with which they are strongly interwoven with many Russians expressing the view that Ukraine is ‘an inalienable part of Russia itself.’ President Vladimir Putin had stated of Ukraine that ‘We are one people.’ Post the Euromaidan protests of 2014, which Moscow believed were triggered by the Western powers inimical to Russia and which led to the overthrow of the Yanukovich regime, Russia captured Crimea in a swift retaliatory operation and after a referendum, merged Crimea with the Russian Federation. From a Russian perspective, the regime change carried out via the Euromaidan protests implied nothing less than ‘an existential threat,’ to Russia, which explains why the Russians moved swiftly to capture Crimea. It is important to mention that Crimea, which till the 1950s was a part of Russia, was ceded to Ukraine when the entire region was under the USSR. It has, for the most part, a Russian speaking population, but its importance to Russia lies also in the fact that the Naval base at Sevastopol hosts the Russian Black Sea Fleet. This area had been leased to Russia by Ukraine.

The Donbas region, on Ukraine's South-Eastern border with Russia, which too has a large Russian speaking population, also declared independence from Ukraine and sought help from Moscow, soon after Russia annexed Crimea. The fighting that ensued in the Donbas led to the Minsk Accord on 5 September 2014, but it was violated soon thereafter and fighting resumed. A new ceasefire, Minsk II was negotiated on 12 February 2015, but the Accord remained unimplemented for the most part, and the conflict remained stalemated and unresolved. Russian fears intensified over the years due to measures being taken by Ukraine to officially join NATO. That was a red line for Moscow and was the causative factor for Russia to carry out a military campaign against Ukraine, primarily to instal a more friendly regime in Kyiv. This was the causative factor for the Ukraine war which began on 24 February 2022 and which continues till date.

The war has, however, shown the Russian military as well as its military leadership in poor light. The operations conducted by the Russian military in February and March 2022 made little headway. More importantly, the political objective of executing a regime change were not only not successful but resulted in uniting the Ukrainian nation against Russia. After one year of conflict, Russia has captured most of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts of the Donbas region as also Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts. These were important operational objectives which has given the Russians a land link to Crimea, besides providing greater control over the Black Sea and providing depth to Crimea from an invasion from the North. President Volodymyr Yelenskky of Ukraine is, however, doggedly holding on and continues to fight, largely with liberal supplies of arms and ammunition from US and the West. Large parts of Ukraine have however been destroyed by the war, which has also led to 10-15 million Ukrainian refugees seeking shelter elsewhere.

The war appears to be stalemated as of now, but the picture could change from March this year, when the winter recedes. Ukraine has the wherewithal to fight for a prolonged period of time as they are fighting for their country and as such, their motivation levels are high. Europe, however, is fast getting tired of the war and their commitment to keep supporting Ukraine is increasingly coming under strain. The destruction of the over 1200 km. long Nord Stream natural gas pipeline has added to European woes as they are facing huge and critical shortages of energy and shifting to energy sources from other suppliers is adding on to the costs. The US, however, is not directly impacted by the war and will continue to support the Ukraine war effort. This suits their long-term strategic interests as a prolonged war will weaken Russia and energise the military industrial complex of the US. The recent unannounced visit of US President, Mr Joe Biden to Kyiv on 20 February 2023, is a pointer in this direction, wherein Mr Biden stated that the US will back Ukraine in its fight against Russia for "as long as it takes".

The Russians have the wherewithal and the will to fight a prolonged war, but the number of casualties they are suffering may soon turn public opinion against the war—a prospect that would not be to the liking of the Russian President, Mr Putin. They will still aim at regime change to end the war, but the prospects of the war coming to a close are dim, largely because neither side is prepared to back down. A ceasefire along the existing front line would not be acceptable to Ukraine who would insist on a restoration of the status quo as it existed on 24 February 2022. Russia may accept a ceasefire on the existing frontline, but they will not accept a ceasefire which demands a return of the captured territories to Ukraine. That is an untenable proposition, as it would mean giving back hard fought gains where the Russians have sacrificed thousands of lives. The war could however end if one side faces a military defeat, with the victor forcing terms on the vanquished. This appears unlikely as of now.

Predicting the future is always hazardous and so it is with the Ukraine War. I would assess that sanctions have had limited impact on Russia, but Europe has been a major sufferer of the impact of sanctions. High energy prices have led to a worsening of most economies leading to severe shortages in many countries in the West. They are looking for an early end to the war. One impact which the war has had on Europe, is that NATO has been energised. Japan and the European Union will now be spending more on defence— a prospect that pleases the US as it keeps the EU outside Russian influence, especially after the destruction of the Nord Stream gas pipelines, which many analysts believe has been the handiwork of the US.

This summer, Russia may continue with a limited offensive and attempt to capture Odessa. That would effectively cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea and make it a land-locked country. From a position of strength, Russia could then declare a unilateral ceasefire. Alternately, it may attempt to take the entire area East of the Dneiper River, making the river the new boundary line with Ukraine. This will, however, be hard to sustain.

Internationally, new power alignments are taking place, which are reflective of a return to the period of the Cold War. On one side we have an axis appearing encompassing China-Russia and Iran. On the other we have an alignment of the US, Western Europe and Japan. India will pursue its national interests which at times may be in sync with one side or the other, but will be driven by national interest.

India's interests in the Indo-Pacific align closely with the US and hence it remains an important part of the Quad grouping. However, India has a different set of interests in the Eurasian heartland, which spells divergence from US views. There is no dichotomy in pursuing different interests on the continental shelf and in the maritime domain, as in both cases, India's policies are aligned to suit India's national interest. Navigating the same in the coming years will require a great deal of dexterity.

The geopolitical outlines of tomorrow’s world remain undefined for now, but will become clearer in the years ahead. For the moment, the war has notably catalysed European integration and has pushed Russia closer to the Chinese embrace. But India will not be drawn into the power play of any one group and will continue to pursue its national interest. This reflects the emergence of a new, vibrant and confident India, which is ready to stand by itself, on regional and international issues. On Ukraine, India will push for peace, without getting entangled with any side. That perhaps is the best option to bring about peace between the parties to the conflict. 

Published in Organiser - 24 Feb 2023

Government-Change Toolkit Launched for 2024

A notable feature of global events as they unfolded since the turn of the century was the occurrence of mass protests aimed at paralysing governments with the underlying purpose of carrying out regime change. This was another form of colonialism by major powers to get a more favourable and pliable government in power. As an example, the 2003 Rose Revolution in Georgia which forced President Eduard Shevardnadze to resign also marked the end of the Soviet era leadership of the country. But the process to achieve this outcome had begun three years earlier, with huge funds being received by opposition parties and NGOs in Georgia from foreign governments and international organisations, to drum up anti-government sentiment. One such organisation was the Open Society Institute funded by George Soros. 

The Orange Revolution in Ukraine in 2004 again led to the annulment of the election result and the inauguration of Viktor Yushchenko as the new President in January 2005, after an election rerun. A decade later, the Euromaidan protests in 2014 once again led to a regime change as the incumbent President chose to have closer ties with Russia rather than with the European Union. The present war in Ukraine, which began a year earlier on 24 February 2022, can largely be traced to Russian concerns of the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, which would impinge directly on Russian security concerns.

The wave of pro-democracy protests and uprisings that took place in the Middle East and North Africa beginning in 2010 and 2011, are now commonly termed as the Arab Spring. This led to a change of regime in Tunisia and Egypt and spread to Yemen, Bahrain, Libya, and Syria in the early months of 2011. The protests led to bloody and protracted struggles between opposition groups and ruling regimes and the area remain volatile till date. 

It would be naive to believe that these protests were the result of a sudden awakening and desire for democratic norms among the local population. Local grievances were repeatedly highlighted and protests were conducted over long periods of time to bring about a magnification effect which resulted in regime change. We can see the same happening in India, ever since the NDA government was swept into power in 2014. Since then, deliberate attempt being made to create discord in society as seen by the protests on the alleged attack on churches, the CAA protests which led to some parts of the capital being placed under siege for months, protest by farmers groups, protests by climate activists, environmentalists and the like. These protests were organised, agenda based events which had huge funding from interested parties. The aim was regime change. The efforts of those who wanted a compliant government in the Centre could not fructify in 2019, where the ruling dispensation won an even bigger mandate than in 2014. Now, with the elections to the Lok Sabha just a year away, the process to create discord and disharmony in the country has started once again in earnest. This is a typical toolkit operation, the first salvo of which was fired by the release of a documentary by the BBC on the post Godhra riots, followed soon thereafter by a hit job on a leading industrialist of India by a US based firm called Hindenberg.

The BBC documentary was released a few days before India's Republic Day. It was a one-sided production, filled with inaccuracies, innuendo, hyperbole and downright distortion of facts, in an attempt to attribute culpability to the then Chief Minister of Gujarat and his government as being complicit in the riots. The people interviewed in the documentary were all ideologically motivated with slanted views, and were working towards promoting an agenda aimed at political destabilisation. So it was not surprising to see the names of people from discredited organisations like the Wire, Caravan and Newsclick as also individuals with far-left leanings like Arundhati Suzanne Roy and Christophe Jaffrelot spewing venom, devoid of facts. It was also no surprise that Karan Thapar chose to interview Jack Straw, a discredited British politician who was the then foreign secretary under Tony Blairs government. Conveniently left out of the documentary was the fact that it was muslim mobs which set fire to the train, killing innocent men, women and children, which was the causative factor of the riots. But surprisingly, the very mature and focussed role of the government in acting quickly to diffuse the situation was left out. Communal riots of far worse nature have taken place in India earlier too, but this was the first time that the Army was called out within 24 hours of the riots breaking out on 28 February. By 1 March, the Army was deployed and by late evening had started dousing the flames. They would have been deployed in an even faster time-frame, but at that time, the troops were deployed in the border and getting them together and sending them by air took some time. A lot of false reporting took place later stating that it took four days for the army to be called in. That was a blatant lie, with the spin doctors conveniently forgetting to tell people that February had only 28 days.

The documentary is a hit job by the BBC and a badly executed one. This organisation, which boasts of its credibility has played to an agenda, as it conveniently left out the fact that India's Apex Court has reviewed every aspect of what happened during those troubled times and has conclusively debunked the lie that the state was complicit in the riots. The timing of the documentary, over two decades after the riots, when the matter has been thoroughly investigated and the guilty have been punished, stands testimony to its biased nature. Why the BBC also chose to make a mention of the revocation of Article 35A and the operative parts of Article 370 as also of the CAA boggles the mind. These later events have no connection with what happened in Gujarat.

So, what was the BBC documentary aimed at? It appears to be an attempt to whip up communal passions before the 2024 elections. Ram Madhav has rightly called the documentary a damp squib, but nevertheless, it is merely the first of many such attacks that are likely to come up over the months ahead, leading to the 2024 elections. The aim appears to be to cause communal polarisation and the coming days will see an escalation of this trend. A responsible journalist like James Dorsey has also written two articles in which he characterises the RSS as a regressive anti-Muslim organisation. While Dorsey is too respectable a journalist to be a part of the toolkit gang, his views do tend to widen existing cleavages, when the Indian establishment is trying to bring communities closer together.

The hit job on Adani by the Hindenburg short seller group is also aimed at weakening India economically. We can expect other leading industrialists to be targeted, albeit in different ways. Ram Dev's Patanjali could be next on the list, but even prominent and well established business conglomerates like the Tata group and the Birla group will be on the radar of foreign entities. Economic turmoil, in conjunction with mass protests on the social front, whipping up sentiments on communal and caste lines will be the likely targets of the tool kit operators, looking at regime change. A politically strong and economically dynamic Bharat is anathema to those external powers that would like a subservient and pliable India. They have the money power to instigate protests and violence within the country. Keeping such forces and their Indian supporters at bay, will be the defining challenge for the coming year.

Published in the Sunday Guardian 5 Feb 2024.

 

The Infantry: Looking into the Future

 The Infantry: Looking into the Future 

Maj Gen Dhruv C Katoch

Introduction

Todays battlefield is no longer a clearly defined two-dimensional piece of ground. The country's entire land mass, coastal areas, island territories, ocean depths, air space, space and the cyber domain constitute the new battle space. It is all encompassing and now also includes the psychological domain: the minds of the political and military leadership and the population at large. The spectrum of conflict too cannot be perceived in terms of a neat, easily comprehended, linear escalator – with peace at one end and war at the other. It is a continuum within which lie a range of military and non-military conflict prevention, conflict and post conflict activities. The distinction between these is blurred. It is in this environment that the Infantry, colloquially called the 'Queen of the Battle' has to operate.

For the infantryman, the fight is always close and personal. It is the infantry which is involved in close quarter combat, captures ground and fights proverbially to the last man and last round. It is the skill, ingenuity and raw courage of the infantryman that constitutes the infantry’s core strength and raison d’être. Technology acts as a force multiplier to make the soldier truly invincible.

In the Indian Army, transformation of the infantry has been underway for some time now. The aim remains to exploit the phenomenal advances that have been made in the field of advanced weapons and communication systems so as to give the soldiers the winning edge in battle. But while transformation is underway, what remains constant is the ethos and spirit of the soldier. That is a function of training, regimentation, discipline, unit élan and esprit de corps. For the infantry, the soldier is the weapon, and he has to be enabled to fight successfully, in all weather and terrain conditions to defeat hostile forces.

The Challenges

India is confronted by two hostile neighbours and thus will always have to be prepared for conventional conflict. Maintaining our forces in a high state of operational readiness remains the best deterrent to war. It is also the mantra for victory in battle. For the infantry, this would imply the ability to mobilise and deploy in an acceptable time frame, and to thereafter, dominate the  battlefield. Information superiority and battlefield transparency will be the keys to winning tomorrow's wars. For the infantryman, this means knowing the location of friendly forces to achieve synergy in operations as also the location and capability of enemy forces and having the means to destroy them. This is a function of battlefield transparency, area dominance through advanced weapon systems and well trained, highly motivated soldiers. 

India has also been afflicted with internal security issues since independence. The infantry is the prime arm which combats insurgents and terrorists. Over the years, many volatile situations have been successfully addressed, maintaining at all times the unity and integrity of the nation. Today, the Infantry is actively involved in bringing peace and stability to J&K and to some parts of Northeast India. In both these areas, normalcy has been brought in to a very large extent, though stray cases of violence occur sporadically.

The Technological Edge

As part of protective gear, the Ministry of Defence is now procuring better quality bullet proof jackets that are able to shield a soldier against 7.62 mm armour-piercing rifle bullets and steel core bullets shot from a distance of 10 metres. The Army has opted for level 4 bulletproof jackets (BPJ) following instances of the use of steel core bullets by terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir. A tender for 62,500 bulletproof jackets was placed in November last year, of which 15,000 BPJs are being procured under the emergency procurement procedure. This will ensure that casualties in anti terrorist operations are further reduced.

In terms of firepower, the infantry will get the most advanced version of the AK series of rifles, the AK-203 assault rifle. The rifle is the soldiers personal weapon and while the indigenously manufactured 5.56 mm INSAS rifle has served the Army well, the need for a better personal weapon for the soldier has now become a prime requirement. A joint venture with Russia was set up in 2019 to produce the AK-203 rifle in Korwa Ordnance Factory in Amethi district at a cost of over Rs 7,000 crore. The production of these rifles will greatly enhance the ability of the Infantry in operations, both in the conventional as well as in the sub conventional domain. As there was a delay in finding a replacement of the 5.56 mm INSAS rifle, the US-made Sig Sauer rifles was procured as an emergency option in 2019. Now, over 671,000 AK-203 rifles (7.62×39mm) will be manufactured at the Korwa Ordnance Factory in Amethi. 100 percent localisation of these rifles will be achieved by the time 120,000 rifles have been manufactured in Korwa. The Infantry will also shortly be getting new carbines to replace the outdated and ageing 9mm British Sterling 1A1 submachine guns. This will give the infantry an edge in close quarter battle situations. In addition, there has been a quantum improvement in terms of grenades issued to the infantry, as also in the quality of battalion support weapons which are now held by the Infantry, especially in terms of mines and anti tank weapons.

Mobility is a prime requirement of the Infantry. Strategic mobility is now available to transport the Infantry, with the Indian Air Force procuring the C-130J Super Hercules transport aircraft. For tactical mobility, we have the CH-47F Chinook heavy-lift helicopter that is among the heaviest lifting Western helicopters. In a big boost to Atmanirbharta in defence, the Light Combat Helicopter (LCH), designed and developed by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) has been formally inducted into the Indian Air Force (and has been named as “Prachanda”. This will also provide invaluable close air support to the Infantry in conventional operations.

But perhaps the greatest transformation has taken place in the field of information superiority. Capability has been enhanced in intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance (ISTAR) systems. There is also enhanced capability in C4 (command, control, communications and computers) systems to facilitate better decision-making, planning and execution of operations. The Infantry has been greatly enabled in all these aspects over the last decade. India now has the Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS), with an operational name of NavIC (acronym for 'Navigation with Indian Constellation). This is an autonomous regional satellite navigation system that provides accurate real-time positioning and timing services which covers not just India, but an area extending over 1,500 kilometres from India's borders. Enhanced situational awareness will greatly facilitate commanders in the conduct of operations.

In the transformation process, the infantry is also moving towards greater use of unmanned systems. Unmanned aerial vehicles/ combat aerial vehicles (UAVs/UCAVs), as also unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) are being used for reconnaissance, intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and destruction.

Human Resource Development

The Infantry continues to stress on building the ethos and mental and physical toughness required for the modern battlefield environment. We now have a new system of recruitment for the Army called the Agnipath Scheme. While the scheme has just started, it will have certain teething problems which the Armed Forces will address as the time goes by. But it will lead to the Infantry having a younger age profile and more importantly, only the best of the lot being retained. For the Infantry, this will be a major game changer. But, it must be understood that, at the basic level, the stress on the regimental ethos and emphasis on physical fitness, field and battle craft, and good shooting standards will remain. The coming decades would see the infantry soldier as more of a sensor or a caller for effect than the deliverer of firepower through individual or crew served weapons. The Agnipath scheme will ensure that the soldier has the requisite ability to come up to the requirements of what is required in the future battlefield.

Conclusion

While transformation of the Infantry is taking place apace, it must be remembered that transformation is both about training soldiers to the requisite degree and also about equipping the soldier with the best weapons and equipment. While maintaining and further enhancing the tenets and ethos of the infantry, the need is to exploit technology and adapt to changing circumstances to defeat the enemy in battle. The Indian Army and the Infantry are well set to meet all operational requirements and will continue to strive to maintain the edge over its enemies in battle. 

Published in Organiser - Jan 2023

CELEBRATING ARMY DAY

 CELEBRATING ARMY DAY

On 15 January 1949, Lt Gen (Later Field Marshal) Kodandera Madappa Cariappa was appointed as the Commander in Chief of the Indian Army. He was the first Indian Army Officer to be so appointed. Subsequently, 15 January was chosen to be celebrated as Army Day, as it marked an epochal moment in the history of the Indian Army.

When India achieved independence and was split on religious grounds into two countries, the erstwhile British Indian Army was also split into the Indian Army and the Pakistan Army. What was strange about this arrangement was that both the armies had British officers as their Commanders in Chief! The command of the Pakistan Army devolved on General Sir Frank Walter Messervy, who served as the First Commander-in-Chief of Pakistan Army from 15 August 1947 to 10 February 1948. He was succeeded by another British officer, General Sir Douglas David Gracey, who served till 16 January 1951 and was the last British Commander in Chief of the Pakistan Army.

In India, the story was not too different. The command of the Indian Army devolved on General Sir Robert McGregor Macdonald Lockhart, who served as the Commander in Chief from 15 August 1947 till 31 December 1947. He was succeeded by General Sir Francis Robert Roy Bucher, who served as the Commander in Chief of the Indian Army till 14 January 1950. Next day, with the appointment of Lt Gen Cariappa as the Commander in Chief, India finally had an Army Chief from amongst its own people.

The first India-Pakistan war which began in October 1947 and continued till 1948 was thus fought by two armies, both of which had British officers as their Commanders-in-Chief! This surely must count as a first in the annals of military history. Another first was a conversation that took place between General Lockhart and Prime Minister Nehru, soon after India achieved independence. When Lockhart went to Nehru asking for a strategic directive on the defence policy, Nehru took one look at his paper and blew his top. 'Rubbish! Total rubbish!' he shouted. 'We don't need a defence plan. Our policy is ahimsa (non-violence). We foresee no military threats. Scrap the army! The police are good enough to meet our security needs'." The First India-Pakistan War which started later in October 1947 paid put to any such thought, which in hindsight appears fortuitous.

The Indian Army has since then, acquitted itself creditably in defending the nation, be it from external aggression or internal disorder. Saving the state of Jammu and Kashmir from the Pakistani marauders was done under extremely adverse circumstances. The declaration of a UN sponsored ceasefire stopped the first war which the Indian Army was engaged in, but there are many who believe that had the war continued, India could have wrested back the entire state of J&K from Pakistan. That of course is a matter for a separate debate. In September 1948, the Indian Army, in a swift operation codenamed Operation Polo, forced the surrender of the Nizam's forces commanded by a Hashemite Arab officer, Major General El Edroos, with El Adroos surrendering to Major General (Later General) JN Chaudhuri of the Indian Army. The Indian Army was also used to liberate Goa, Daman and Diu in 1961, thus eliminating the last vestiges of foreign rule from Indian shores. 

The India-China war of 1962 marked a low in the Army's history, but the causative factors that led to the debacle were political. Within three years, India's Armed Forces successfully thwarted Pakistani aggression for the second time, rendering void Pakistan's dream of annexing Kashmir. This was followed in 1971 by the Liberation of Bangladesh, which resulted in the break-up of Pakistan and the emergence of India as a power of consequence in world affairs. But Pakistan continued with its perfidy and yet again attempted to change the status quo by infiltrating troops across the Kargil heights. There too, they were outplayed, and were forced to beat a humiliating retreat.

Against China, the Indian Army retrieved its respect in the clashes which occurred in Nathu La and Cho La from 1-14 September 1967, when Indian troops drove back Chinese forces. Chinese aggression was again repulsed in Sumdorung Chu in the Tawang Sector, in the stand off which took place between Indian and Chinese troops in 1986-87. The Chinese were resisted in Doklam in 2017, in Galwan in Eastern Ladakh in June 2020, and more recently, in Yangtse in Eastern Ladakh in December 2022. While tension still prevails across the LAC with China, the Indian Army remains suitably poised to give a befitting response to any Chinese aggression.

On the internal front, the Army has contributed in a major way in bringing peace and tranquility to violence affected regions in Northeast India, in quelling the decade long Punjab insurgency from the mid 1980s to mid 1990s and in bringing peace and stability to Jammu and Kashmir. Today, the Army is moving forward in its modernisation thrust, which will change the face of the Army by 2030. As per Army Chief, General Manoj Pande, the current equipment profile of the Army has 45% ‘vintage’ equipment,  41% ‘current’ equipment & 14% ‘state-of-the-art' equipment. This by itself is a huge improvement over what existed in 2014. But even this is set to further improve to close to 35% ‘current’ & 44% ‘state-of-the-art’ equipment by 2030, making the Army a credible instrument of deterrence. 2023, stated the Army Chief, will be a year of transformation.

In terms of manpower, the Agnipath scheme has been started which will give the Army a younger age profile as well as the option to retain only the best among the recruits. A well motivated, well equipped and well led Army is the need of the times and the Indian Army is well set to defend the country against all threats. Today, the Indian Army will is transforming into a future ready, technology driven, lethal and agile force. On this occasion, we pay our tributes to those who defend the motherland and also pay remembrance to all those who have sacrificed their lives for the defence of India as also to the veteran community for their sacrifices over the years.

PUBLISHED IN CHINTAN - 15 JAN 2023

India's Preparedness in the Age of Information Warfare

 India's Preparedness in the Age of Information Warfare

Thank you for the very warm introduction, Prof Pramod Kumar,

Prof Sanjay Dwivedi, DG, IIMC, members of the IIMC faculty, friends.

Namaskar

I am very happy to be here this afternoon to share my thoughts on this very interesting subject. I will give you my perspective on the challenges which we face today as far as information warfare is concerned and how best we can deal with those challenges.

But let me begin with greeting all of you on the occasion of Vijay Divas. On this day, 51 years ago, the Indian Armed Forces and the Indian nation won for itself the biggest victory in the last one thousand years when, in a swift 13 day operation, the Liberation War was brought to a successful conclusion, culminating with the surrender of 93,000 soldiers from the Pakistan military - the largest military surrender after the second world war.

The war was necessitated due to the brutal repression of the Bengali population by the Pakistan army in a crackdown called Operation Searchlight, which began on 25 March 1971. Innocent men, women and children were taken out of their homes and shot, the orgy of killing, rape and loot continuing for months on end till the Indian Armed Forces, along with the Mukti Bahini intervened militarily on 3 December and in a swift 13-day war, forced the Pakistani military to unconditionally surrender. 16 December is commemorated as Vijay Divas since then, to pay homage to the gallant soldiers of the Indian Armed Forces and the Mukti Bahini who fought for freedom, and for all those who laid down their lives for the cause. On this auspicious occasion, I join all people from both India and Bangladesh, in paying homage to all those who fought for freedom and who laid down their lives for the cause. Such commemoration is also important to keep alive the memory of what brutal regimes can do and to ensure that such history is never repeated again.

Why do genocides happen? Why is it that in some conflicts, there is a failure to account for the crimes of sexual violence against women? A look into recent history in South Asia is revealing. There is little mention made of genocides and sexual abuse of women in war, which is why there is so little knowledge available in the public domain of this dark side of history. it is precisely because of a lack of accountability that genocides have occurred in the past and will continue to occur in the future too. Denial of information and putting forth an alternative narrative has much to do with the way events are perceived across the world. That is why, all those who profess to be the staunchest defenders of democracy across the world, remained chillingly silent on the genocide that took place in Bangladesh in 1971. It suited their national interest to do so. Post the Liberation war, Pakistani military officers were not tried for genocide. This gave an impression to Pakistan that India is a soft state. Perhaps, that was the reason that the Genocide of the Kashmiri Hindus took place in 1989-90. And as the perpetrators of the Kashmiri genocide are still at large, are we looking at another genocide taking place in India, at some time in the not too distant future? That is something we need to ponder about.

Now, coming down to the subject proper. 

Information has always been used as a tool of war since ancient times. Here, the story in the Mahabharata of how the great sage warrior Drona was killed is instructive. When informed that Aswatthama is dead, Drona thought that it was his son who had been killed in battle, though in reality it was an elephant by that name. Drona became despondent and in that moment of weakness he was killed. This brings out two important aspects of Information Warfare. One, the art of deception and two, the psychological impact of information on the mind. 

Protecting own information means and attacking those of the enemy are part of standard military operations. The third prong is deception. In modern times, the rapid growth of information technology has led to the empowerment of the individual as never before, with information being available at the click of button. The advent of the social media is truly empowering but comes with a lot of negative fallouts also. This has led now to the fourth pillar of information warfare, wherein we can shape the perceptions and attitudes of a large body of people using information as a tool. 

How do we protect our information systems? In the cyber domain, information travels from satellites to ground stations and thence to servers across the country and across the world. Satellites provide geo-mapping of the world, information about the weather and terrain, enable long distance communication and impact on every aspect of our life today, from education to entertainment to business and any thing else we can presently conceive. Disrupting these links can be very damaging for a country and can bring down a country's banking sector, or the rail and air networks, water supply and a host of other facilities. Recently, we had the servers of the AIIMS being hacked and the hackers demanded a ransom to restore the system. A few years ago we have seen how Stuxnet, a malicious computer worm, damaged the centrifuges that Iran  was using to enrich uranium as part of its nuclear programme. Both in peace and war, the enemy will use all means at its disposal to gain information about us and these are not necessarily military targets but civilian targets as well. War then, is no longer confined to the front lines. Information operations hence will take place over our land territory, water ways, Islands and sea coasts, and space and outer space. The first attack by an enemy will most likely be in the cyber domain where we could see an attack taking place on a civilian target. It could be the Mumbai stock exchange! Or on any of our vital economic assets. Off course military assets too will be targeted, especially communication nodes, but future war will be all encompassing and will include both civilian and military targets, in which the enemy will use both hard kill and soft kill options. As an example, the physical destruction of a satellite or earth stations would be part of the hard kill, whereas making systems unusable through non-kinetic means would form part of the soft kill options.

Protection obviously involves hardening our systems and creating adequate redundancies. It also includes deterrence. Towards that end, India successfully conducted an anti-satellite (ASAT) test on March 27, 2019, which was announced to the world by Prime Minister Modi in a televised address. In this test, a ballistic missile defense interceptor, the Prithvi Delivery Vehicle Mark-II (PDV MK-II), developed by the DRDO struck and destroyed an Indian Microsat-R satellite in a flight that lasted just over half a minute. This test, called Mission Shakti, was a counter to China's ASAT test conducted in 2007. Krishnaswamy Kasturirangan, ISRO’s chairman from 1994 to 2003, summarized New Delhi’s concerns succinctly in September 2009, “India has spent a huge sum to develop its capabilities and place assets in space. Hence, it becomes necessary to protect them from adversaries. There is a need to look at means of securing these.” Mission Shakti was a step in that direction. 

The test carried out yesterday of  the long-range “Agni-5” intercontinental nuclear-capable ballistic missile, was also expected to strengthen India's deterrence capability against China. All this signals capability and is part of information warfare to promote deterrence. It only works when there is real capability and not just empty threats. India's information systems are thus reasonably well protected, though off course protection involves being constantly on the watch out, checking and improving on own systems to ensure that they are safe from hostile attacks. Eternal vigilance is the price we have to continue to pay to remain secure.

The other aspect of information warfare is attacking enemy information systems. Such capabilities are kept under wraps and are seldom discussed in the open domain. It is hoped that India has the capability to monitor enemy systems and to bring them down if necessary. That would add to deterrence capability.

At this stage I would like to address the fourth prong of information warfare - shaping attitudes and perceptions of target populations, both of the home audience and abroad. India's performance here has been a mixed bag, but that is true for all countries, even those having huge resources such as the US and China. 

A rough audit check of India's success or otherwise in shaping the information environment indicates that we have been reasonably successful in having a broad acceptance of India's concerns to the international audience especially on issues related to terrorism. The performance as far as the domestic audience is more nuanced. The challenge really lies in the fact that individuals today are really empowered, even those living at the lower end of the economic spectrum carry. They carry out digital financial transactions with consummate ease, converse in social groups such as FaceBook and WhatsApp and are reasonably well informed of current happenings in their immediate neighbourhood as well as on issues which impact the country. 

The benefits of digitisation are immense especially in the field of governance. However, just as the smart phone and the internet have empowered the individual, the ubiquitous nature of information technology has also thrown up a range of opportunities for their misuse through disinformation, distortion of the truth, false flag operations, spoofing, spam mail, and the like, to create divisions and turmoil within society. 

The Information Environment (IE) is truly global in nature, with information flows cutting across physical and artificial boundaries and impacting all segments of society. This is both enabling as well as has potential for misuse. The wide range and diversity of actors in the global IE has great aggregate influence, much akin to that of a state and more often, even far in excess of what the modern state exercises. Non-state actors have also made their presence felt and seek to create influence in furtherance of their objectives. Towards this end, influencers are used, who unwittingly or otherwise lend their name to a social cause or movement, sometimes unknowing of the real intent of the provocateurs and at others, because of monetary inducement or being ideologically aligned to the cause. Non-state actors also use the media and exploit advances made in information communication technology to undermine governments and exert influence in furtherance of their aims.

An example of the above is the efforts made by interested groups to undermine the BJP led NDA government ever since it won the Lok Sabha elections in 2014. A concerted campaign was launched by motivated groups in the months following the 2014 elections to showcase India as an intolerant nation. Here, an attempt was made to create religious discord by highlighting certain isolated incidences of vandalism that had taken places in churches as deliberate targeted attacks, when in fact they were nothing more than cases of petty theft, the likes of which were routine and had taken place in earlier years too. When viewed holistically with data analysis over the past ten years, there was no upward spiral of such cases, as alleged. Such incidents had also happened with Hindu places of worship but that fact was glossed over. By the time the truth finally came out, India's image stood tarnished, with even the then US President, Mr Barack Obama, who had come to India as the Chief Guest for the 2015 Republic Day Parade, making remarks on 'religious intolerance' and repeating the same on his return to Washington. The vicious attacks against India were motivated and designed to pressure India on its foreign policy and domestic policy options, with religious intolerance being used as a tool to make India conform to Western dictates.

The subsequent years saw protests on various issues, fanned by interested groups exploiting the social, audio-visual and print media. The year 2016 witnessed a series of agitations by student groups, who shouted slogans in support of a terrorist who was convicted for his role in the attack on India's Parliament in 2001 and who was executed in 2013! The agitating students, supported by left wing and islamist groups, raised slogans seeking the break up of India and calling the act of execution of the convicted terrorist an act of murder. Similar agitations continued on various pretexts over the next two years. Then in 2019 there were huge protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) which brought parts of the nation's capital to a standstill, peaking in February 2020, to tarnish the nation's image when US President Donald Trump was visiting India. And in September 2020, massive protests broke out against the three farm laws passed by Parliament, which peaked during the Republic Day celebrations in 2021. In all these protests there was a hidden agenda of undermining the elected Indian government, India's democratic framework as well as India's composite cultural ethos. Information was weaponised and used to draw crowds to disrupt normal life. This remains part of the agenda of external forces to exacerbate internal issues and fault lines. In this, segments of the opposition parties within India lend a helping hand in their bid to get back to power. In the end, it is the people of India who suffer.

The desire to shape opinions remains the key motivator for organising mass movements against the elected government. This suits the agenda of foreign powers who view India's rise as a potential threat to their economic interests. It is therefore incumbent on the state to preempt hostile agendas by anticipating what disruptors might do and taking preventive action well in time. This can be done by shaping public perceptions through a long-term vision and with strategic patience.

We need to look into potential future flashpoints and have systems in place to address the concerns of the public. Narrative building and propagation with thus be essential to avoid social upheaval which can negatively impact India. Suitable narratives which are gender neutral and religion and caste neutral need to be propagated to get wide acceptance from all segments of society and to change behaviour patterns. A proactive stance in shaping perceptions will go a long way in reducing friction and in addressing societal fault lines to prevent internal and external hostile forces from creating disruptions in society. This assumes importance as the spotlight will be on India for the coming year, when it takes on the Presidency of the G20 this December.

Talk - Virtual- 16 Dec 2022

Book Review RUSSIA UKRAINE WAR: THE CONFLICT AND ITS GLOBAL IMPACT

 RUSSIA UKRAINE WAR: THE CONFLICT AND ITS GLOBAL IMPACT

By Ajay Singh

Ukraine became an independent country in 1991, following the break up of the Soviet Union. On 24 February 2022, Russian forces moved into Ukraine, to halt what Moscow perceived to be a deliberate attempt by NATO to continue with its eastward expansion, which could potentially result in Ukraine joining the grouping. That was a red line which Moscow would not allow to be crossed, and was presumably the trigger that led to Russian forces invading Ukraine. But the events leading up to the Russian attack had been brewing since the Orange Revolution of 2004. Ukraine became an area of contestation between the European Union and Russia, which in turn divided the country into two blocs: A pro-European Western Ukraine and a pro-Russia Eastern Ukraine. This tussle led initially to the Orange Revolution, then to the Euromaidan protests of 2014 and finally to the Russian invasion of 2022.

 In 1954, the Russian-populated oblast of Crimea was transferred from the Russian to the Ukrainian Soviet Republic. At that time, since both were part of the Soviet Union, it mattered little, but control of Crimea, which had a 75 percent Russian ethnic majority was vital to the security interests of Russia as its Black Sea Fleet was headquartered there. Following the Euromaidan protests in 2014, Russian forces seized control of the Crimean region on 18 March 2014. In April of that year, fighting broke out between the Ukraine army and pro-Ukraine forces on one side against those supporting an independent Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LPR), which had been self-proclaimed in April 2014. That conflict, since then has led to thousands of people being killed and over a million being internally displaced. 

The Minsk accords, first agreed in September 1914 and later revised in February 2015 as Minsk II, could have led to peace and stability but they were violated and the self governance promised to the Donbas region did not come about. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine continued to rise, till on 22 February, Russia formally recognised the DPR and LPR and then two days later, invaded Ukraine. 

Most military observers were of the view that the Russian military would bring the war to a quick closure. Russian aims were initially limited to affect a quick change in regime and instal a government which was not hostile to Russian interests and which would commit Ukraine to not joining NATO. A combination of military ineptness on the part of the Russian military leadership plus the rallying of the people by President Zelensky has seen the war drag on now for over 10 months, with no signs of the conflict coming to an end any time soon. Russia has taken most of the Donbas region, and the Zaporizhzhiya and Kherson oblasts to give it control over the entire northern coastline of the Black Sea bordering Ukraine, less the city of Odessa. This has linked Crimea to the Russian mainland by the land route, passing through Donbas and Zaporizhzhiya, and has secured Russian access to the Atlantic via the Mediterranean  Sea. But at the same time, a fresh set of challenges, which make conflict resolution a distant dream have been thrown up.

For Russia, it would be politically unacceptable to give back what it has gained on the battlefield. Similarly, for Ukraine, the minimum acceptable solution is a return to the status quo. How such irreconcilable positions can be addressed remains to be seen.

This book, "Russia Ukraine War: The Conflict and its Global Impact" delves a bit into history, but for the most part is focussed on the conduct of military operations. The last quarter of the book looks into the geo-political impact of the war and the economic consequences for the world which the war has caused, especially as it comes just when the world was emerging from two years of an economic slowdown caused by the Covid Pandemic. 

How the war has been fought so far has been analysed with clinical professionalism, to include the planning and preparatory phase of operations, followed by the actual conduct of operations by the Russians as well as the counter offensive by Ukraine. The wealth of details brought forth in the book makes it a delight for the military professional to understand various aspects of the war-fighting that has taken place as also, where things went wrong for the Russians in terms of conduct of operations at the operational and tactical levels as also weaknesses at the military leadership level. The host of military and political lessons which the war has thrown up need to be seriously studied, for they have application for India as well as all other militaries and governments across the world.

The last quarter of the book gives out a set of scenarios which could bring about the end game, but the book also looks into the possibility of the war degenerating into a nuclear conflict which could have horrific consequences. The Russia-China convergence has also been covered as has the NATO angle in this war. Importantly, the book looks into the global impact of the war and how this could lead to a new world order. It ends with a well-thought essay on the lessons which India could learn from the war.

The war is not over and doubtless, much of the information about the conduct of operations remains classified and not open to the public. But even so, the book remains an important source document, with a wealth of analysis on different aspects of the war as well as on its geo-political and geo-economic impact. The author, Col Ajay Singh as well as those who contributed to it deserve to be congratulated on taking out this very educative volume. Meticulously researched and impeccably presented, the book is strongly recommended for all those who have an interest in the military and in international relations as also for the lay reader.

Published in IFJ Jan-Feb 2023