OF BLACK SWANS AND GREY RHINOS

Asia is a veritable cauldron of conflict. While the Af-Pak region continues to remain the epicentre of terrorism, conflict in the Gulf now has increasingly worrying dimensions. Besides the Af-Pak region, South Asia appears more stable, but random acts of Islamic terrorism occasionally come to the fore, as in the case of the Easter bombings in Sri Lanka. In India, the overall security environment remains stable, with violence levels in the Northeastern region as also areas impacted by Left Wing Extremism dipping considerably. Kashmir appears stable after the abrogation of Article 35A and of some provisions of Article 370.

Within the ASEAN countries, the Islamic State (Daesh) has made limited inroads into Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. Terror groups are increasingly decentralised, use sleeper cells and resort to lone wolf attacks. The process of recruitment makes use of the social media and other forms of advanced technology, in what may be termed as “third generation threats”. Further East, China continues to deal with its Uighur Muslim population in Xinjiang in a high handed fashion which may invite a future blowback. Tibet too is restive, though both Xinjiang and Tibet are relatively stable as of now. China is also facing mass protests in Hong Kong over some of its policies.

The above violence levels are localised and are being contained by the respective governments. However, of deep concern is the happenings in the Gulf, especially in respect of targeting of oil facilities. The war in Yemen has been ongoing for a few years now, with the Saudi coalition forces trying to dislodge the Houthis who are backed by Iran. If the situation gets out of hand, it could lead to regional instability with the supply of oil becoming the critical determinant. The Saudi oil facilities were attacked by the Houthis (as claimed by them, though evidently, the Houthis would have been supported by an external power). The attack crippled Saudi oil supply by 50 percent for over a month till the supply was eventually restored. The ferocity, suddenness and pin point accuracy of the attack led many to call it a Black Swan event, but a cursory analysis points otherwise. Over the past two years, the Houthis have carried out over 18 attacks on Saudi facilities and so an attack on Aramco should not have come as a surprise. It was thus a Grey Rhino event—one that could have been foreseen but was ignored.

The danger signals are now all around us. Besides the attack on Aramco, ships carrying oil have also been targeted While regional conflicts can be contained, a conflict which results in the antagonists attacking each others oil facilities could be disastrous, especially if it leads to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. That would be disastrous for the Asian economies, especially for India and could spell the end of the much heralded Asian century.

(India Foundation Journal: Nov-Dec 2019)