Thank you Gen Srivastava, for giving me this platform to share some of my thoughts with this very distinguished audience on the CPEC, Gwadar and Balochistan - the game plan.
We have seen the freedom movement in Balochistan play out since 1948, albeit with different levels of repression by the Pakistani state. But what we are seeing now is perhaps one of the most vicious elements of suppression of a people by the security forces of Pakistan. It would be worth dwelling why this is happening and how the future is likely to unfold.
Let me begin with a small anecdote. On 19 October 1977, the Corps of Engineers set off on a historic boat voyage in a small sailing boat, the Albatross, from Mumbai to Bandar Abbas in Iran. The crew of three halted at Karachi and from there sailed along the Makran coast to Iran. They crossed Gwadar by night and were surprised that hardly any lights were visible, though so much had been heard about its strategic importance. The complete lack of fishing activity along the long coastline also mystified them.
The truth of the matter really was that Gwadar remained undeveloped for a very long time till President Pervez Musharraf approached the Chinese in 2001 and they got on board to build the deep sea port. Pakistani fears were amplified after the Kargil War, and they wanted a second port in case Karachi was blockaded by India.
The first phase of the port was completed in 2007 after a delay of three years, but the movement of cargo was limited, Karachi remaining the main port for trade purposes. Things changed dramatically post 2015, when Xi Jinping launched his Belt and Road Initiative of which the China Pakistan Economic Corridor was the crowning jewel.
The CPEC is not really a commercial concern. Nor is the route likely to be used an alternate energy supply route in case of closure of the Malacca Straits. The reasons for the CPEC have more to do with GeoPolitics rather than Geo Economics. China’s objective has perhaps more to do with its desire to establish a foothold in the Indian Ocean Region, to balance India - what some call geo strategic balancing. Chinese presence in Gwadar also gives them access to the nearby Strait of Hormuz as a point of influence. In any case, if Malacca is closed, the Chinese can move further south to the Sunda and Lombok passageways, though at a slightly higher cost. The Gwadar project is hence for the Chinese military. It is estimated that half a million Chinese professionals will be settled in Gwadar by the end of 2022, and that Gwadar will be used as military base. This has caused great concern to the local Baloch, who fear becoming a minority in their own homeland.
There are also Chinese concerns regarding their investment in the CPEC, as it passes through Gilgit Baltistan which is Indian territory, illegally occupied by Pakistan. Post the revocation of the provisions of Article 370 and splitting the state into two union territories, the Chinese concern over the future of CPEC has been heightened. The announcement by Pakistan on 1 November 2020, to grant Gilgit Baltistan the status of a full province has perhaps been done under Chinese prodding, to protect their commercial interests. Post the elections held in the same month, and which were won by the ruling PTI, there is the possibility that the region may be declared as the fifth province of Pakistan. What impact this will have on Pakistan’s claims on Kashmir remain to be seen but the Chinese are hoping that it will lead to a permanent settlement of the border dispute between India and Pakistan, and this will secure their commercial interests.
Finally we have Chinese fears about the activities of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, who are fighting for an independent East Turkestan. This is the occupied region of Xinjiang, which the Chinese are ruling by brute force. The activities of the ETIM have merged with that of the Taliban in Afghanistan, making the situation more volatile for the Chinese. Allied with this is the future of Afghanistan, in the event of a total US withdrawal from the region. This could well plunge Afghanistan into instability, with consequences for all other countries in the region.
In this backdrop, I will now give my assessment on certain scenarios that may play out.
Let me start with the possible future of Balochistan. The likelihood of the Baloch people getting independence appears bleak. The situation cannot be compared to what happened in Bangladesh in 1971. For starters, Bangladesh or the then East Pakistan was totally surrounded by India, and the battlefield was isolated. This hampered the actions of the Pakistan military, but was conducive for the operations carried out by the Mukti Bahini and later, by the Indian Armed Forces. The population of Bangladesh was more than the population of then West Pakistan, and suppressing a people’s movement of such proportions was a virtual impossibility for the Pakistan army.
Balochistan has a small population - about 1.2 crore, which is about 5 percent of the total population of Pakistan. However, it comprises about 40 percent of the area of Pakistan. The Baloch is 52 percent of the population, with the Pashtuns accounting for 36% and others the remaining 12%. With these statistics, it appears a virtual impossibility for Balochistan to become an independent entity, unless there is external aid.
Here, geopolitics comes into play. The two foreign neighbours of Balochistan are Iran and Afghanistan. Iran has a restive Baloch population in its Sistan-Balochistan province and will not fan the flames of independence in Balochistan. Similarly, Afghanistan has a large Baloch population bordering Balochistan and it will do nothing to fan the flames of Baloch separatism for its own interests. India does not have a land border, so can de precious little to assist the people in their just demands.
On the flip side, however, the Pakistan military will be unable to regain total control of the area, precisely for the same reasons. Insurgency in Balochistan will hence continue unabated in the region, with varying levels of violence.
CPEC will remain disturbed and will require protection. As of now, over 30,000 Pakistani troops are deployed in its protection and this level of commitment will only increase in the days to come. The economic miracle that Pakistan is hoping for from the CPEC is not likely to materialise, considering the volatile security situation that prevails over much of Pakistan. Added to that is the bleak economic situation of Pakistan, which is worsening by the day. High inflation, coupled with low growth, increasing joblessness and an ever growing population adds to the cocktail of poor governance within the country.
Gwadar, in my view, will at some point of time, be taken over by the Chinese, who will use it as a naval base. Such a scenario, to my mind is at least a decade in the horizon and things may change by then. But the Indian security establishment needs to factor in growing Chinese presence in the area and build its naval assets accordingly.
What can change the above hypothesis is an implosion within the Pakistan military or a rapprochement taking place between India and Pakistan on the one hand and the warring Afghan groups on the other. An India-Pak rapprochement does not suit the Pakistan military narrative as their place in the Pakistani governance structures will come under question. In Afghanistan, the Taliban will not settle for anything less than total control over the country and the present establishment will not be willing to meekly surrender. So the possibility of a civil war looms large in the country. But stranger events have taken place, so peace, though unlikely, is not an outcome that can be ruled out.
The Pakistan military can implode, if the levels of radicalisation within the rank and file cross the tipping point. As of now, the Pakistan military is stable, but an implosion within the military could have possible fallouts in the further bifurcation of the country. A possible scenario could be a tie up between Sindh and Balochistan for an independent state. Together, it is a viable proposition.
The options for India remain limited. Whatever commitment the Govt of India gives to the people of Balochistan must be on a long tern basis and should be sustainable. It should continue to support an Afghan peace process which is Afghan owned and Afghan led. And it should concentrate on increasing its economic and military might, to remain a relevant player in future.
Thank you. Jai Bharat, Jai Hind
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