In the history of warfare, the high ground has always provided a position of advantage over an opponent occupying lower ground as the observation provided over the battlefield enabled better situational awareness. In the modern battlefield, Space is the ultimate high ground. Today, space is getting increasingly democratised with the inflow of a myriad range of space applications, making the space sector a tool for global influence and diplomacy and space the fourth operational domain after land, sea and air. While control over the seas and the air was always considered as an essential element in power play, today it is the ability to exploit space to one's advantage which is the new game changer. Hence the race to achieve dominance in space.
Since ancient times, conflict has revolved around two principal facets which are essential for gaining victory. The first is situational awareness and the second is having the means to act on the knowledge so gained. This is the essence of warfare, which encapsulates all other facets of war fighting. The former involves battlefield transparency—that is having the knowledge of the location of friendly, hostile and neutral forces, their weapon and equipment holding, means of communication, and information about terrain and weather. The latter involves advanced technology giving one the capability to destroy or disrupt enemy assets with pin-point accuracy over long distances, using kinetic or non-kinetic means. Space capability enables both these aspects.
Technology has enabled interconnection of participants and the distribution of sensors on the battlefield at a reliability, continuity and data transfer rate never before imagined. When integrated with precision long range weapon systems, the lethality which can be achieved at the point of decision gave rise to the concept of Network Centric Warfare (NCW). Future conflict is moving towards this end as witnessed in the conflicts which have taken place over the last three decades in West Asia, Afghanistan and parts of Africa. Networks, however, do not alter the fundamental nature of warfare, but simply alters its character. So, while direct and indirect engagements will continue to exist, the network has enabled collaborative engagements in which the sensor is not always identical to the shooter. Mass is still useful, but it can leverage far greater precision. Because sensors can be linked to distant shooters, entire systems can be used to eliminate platforms rather than symmetric platform-on-platform engagements.
As I stated earlier, networks are not a substitute for the fundamentals of warfare. They do, however, provide significant additive advantages. While warfare is progressing towards net centricity, in the Indian context, the linearity of the land battle with respect to conflict on the borders with Pakistan and China will remain a reality though the battle space will get extended in depth. A major concern for India will also be on the high seas, where the battle space is not confined to India's territorial waters, island territories and its EEZ but across the vast expanse of the Indian Ocean, also stretching on to the Pacific. On the land frontiers, Information Warfare, especially with respect to cyber attacks will transcend the linear space and assume an all encompassing character. In the context of sub-conventional conflict the zone of conflict will remain non-linear and will cover the entire affected population at large.
Warfare as we see it, will not be so much about dealing with the biggest threat in the environment but in dealing with the environment of threats. There will be multiple threats which will have to be dealt with in real time, requiring great agility. In his pioneering work on the Origin of Species, Darwin postulated his theory of the survival of the fittest. In modern warfare we are looking at the survival of the agile. Agility hence will be a key feature of future conflict and will largely depend both on the quality of decision making as well as the speed at which decisions are taken. In this process, societies which are knowledge driven will have the edge as power has shifted to knowledge based real time actors. As we move towards self synchronisation of forces we may well be looking at a future in which decision making and action will take place at electronic speed. ‘War at the speed of thought,’ is no longer outside the realm of what is possible though its actualisation is still far from the horizon. With greater availability of information at our fingertips we are also looking at information overload, and its consequences, but that is a far better situation to be in than to be in a state where there is a paucity of information. Space will impinge on the entire gamut of operations on land, sea and air and will play a major role in all aspects of future conflict.
The Threat
Let us take a look at a hypothetical war which takes place between India and China over the Himalayas. Whatever strategy China pursues to prosecute war, the opening round will be the launch of an aggressive high intensity information campaign. This is an ongoing process and takes place at all times, but its intensity increases when hostilities are imminent and thereafter continues for the duration of the conflict. The next step will be the launch of intense cyber attacks on both military and non-military targets. This requires exploiting space capabilities. Along with cyber attacks, we could well see the PLA launch precision missile attacks on military targets. These missiles will require terminal guidance which again will require space capabilities. We will see aerial combat to gain control over the skies over Tibet. Again, space assets will come into play. For the build up and concealment of forces, and for ground operations, the Chinese would be looking to exploit space for reconnaissance and communication. Every facet of war fighting will have enabling content from space. India will have to be prepared to respond accordingly. Space capabilities hence need to be developed to match what China can throw against India. A similar scenario can be painted for the Indian Ocean Region where Chinese naval and air assets will be in play. India must be in a position to match Chinese capability, both as a war winning strategy as well as a strategy of deterrence.
So, where does India stand in space capabilities.
India's Space Programme
India's political leadership had the wisdom to visualise the benefits that could accrue to the country from space based assets. Consequently, the Indian Space Research Organisation was set up in 1969, barely a decade after the US had set up NASA in 1958. But there was an element of diffidence in India's space programme, a hesitation to use the power of space for India's defence—and so it was confined to civilian use only, and was focussed on development activities. Since the launch of India's first satellite, numerous satellites have been launched by India with applications for broadcasts, communications, weather forecasts, disaster management, Geographic Information Systems, cartography, navigation, telemedicine, distance education and the like. ISRO has also gone in for space expeditions like the moon probe—the Chandrayan 1 and 2 missions which took place in 2008 and 2019 and the Mangalyaan mission to Mars in 2014. Importantly, launch capabilities have also been developed. India presently has three launch sites: we have the Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre at Thiruvananthapuram in Kerala, the Satish Dhawan Space Centre at Sriharikota in Andhra Pradesh and the Dr Abdul Kalam Island, about 150 km East of Bhubaneswar, off the coast of Odisha. India's first satellite the Aryabhata was completely designed and fabricated in India but was launched by a Soviet Kosmos-3M rocket from Kapustin Yar on April 19, 1975. This site is about 100 km East of Volvograd in Russia. Since then, India has launched a total of 135 satellites for its own use. Most of these were launched using Indian Launch vehicles. In addition, India has launched 345 satellites for 36 countries till date: truly, an outstanding feat.
The Launch vehicle used by India was the Satellite Launch Vehicle or the SLV and the Augmented SLV. These went through various upgrades and now the operational launchers are the PSLV, GSLV, GSLV Mk III and Sounding Rockets. For the future, India is looking at reusable launch vehicles. The Technology demonstration for such a vehicle was done in 2016 and at some point in the future, India will have commercially viable RLV technology. The RLV-TD is India's first uncrewed flying testbed developed for the Indian Space Research Organisation's Reusable Launch Vehicle Technology Demonstration Programme. It is a scaled down prototype of an eventual two-stage-to-orbit reusable launch vehicle. The RLVs use Scramjet Technology Engine — This is an Air Breathing Propulsion System.
GSLV with indigenous Cryogenic Upper Stage has enabled the launching of up to 2 tonne class of communication satellites. The next variant of GSLV is GSLV Mk III, with indigenous high thrust cryogenic engine and stage, having the capability of launching 4 tonne class of communication satellites. Sounding Rockets are smaller rockets from the Rohini series on suborbital and atmospheric flights for aeronomy and meteorological studies.
In essence, India's space programme has the capacity to make satellites indigenously, and launch them using indigenous launchers in the Low earth orbit (LEO), Medium earth orbit (MEO), High Earth Orbit (HEO) or in Geo-stationary orbit. Despite sanctions which were put on India after the nuclear tests of 1974 and 1998, India has persevered, and has even made the cryogenic engine which is extremely credible. In addition, India through GAGAN and IRNSS has made a significant breakthrough in navigation capability. GAGAN stands for GPS Aided GEO Augmented Navigation. This was launched in 2008 for the Airports Authority of India. GAGAN augments GPS signals over the Indian sub continent and is similar to the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) which is used by the US. Similarly, the European Union has EGNOS, the European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service as its Satellite-Based Augmentation System.
The IRNSS which is the Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System is a cluster of seven satellites over India in the Low Earth Orbit, and is more accurate than the GPS. It is called NavIC or Navigation by Indian Constellation. Both have dual use capability. GAGAN is dependent on GPS while NavIC is independent of GPS.
Space as a Military Domain
Once satellites were launched into space, there was a need felt for a space treaty. Consequently, a Treaty came about in 1967 called the Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies. This is referred to as the Outer Space Treaty, 1967. 112 countries have signed this treaty, which forms the basis of international space law. The Treaty bans the weaponisation of space. This means that putting weapons of Mass Destruction in space is banned. It also prohibits military activities on celestial bodies and details legally binding rules governing the peaceful exploration and use of space.
There is however great dichotomy in these rules as it does not ban use of space assets in warfare such as GPS. There is also no ban on anti satellite destruction from earth. Thus, satellites can be used to further a whole host of military objectives such as military intelligence of an adversary, pin-point targeting, military communications etc. Another point to be understood is that while the air space over a country is sovereign territory, there is no sovereignty attached to any part of outer space. As a general rule, anything above 100 kms from the earths surface is outer space, so when satellites in low earth orbit fly over any country, they can provide legal intelligence. The killing in Afghanistan of Zawahiri, the al Qaeda head, by a US Predator missile strike is a classic example of the manner in which space stands militarised. While the predator was flying in air space, the precision targeting came from GPS systems via satellites. There is thus a fine distinction between militarisation of space and weaponisation of space.
In the on-going Ukraine War, when Russia hacked the network that was providing the communication link to the Ukrainian front line troops, Elon Musk the private operator of StarX used his Starlink satellites to restore communication. Within a matter of days he set up over 500 ground terminals to restore the data links. Considering the utility of space for military purposes, India has now set up, in 2019, the Defence Space Agency and the Defence Space Research Organisation (DSRO). Prior to that, in 2013, for the first time, India launched a dedicated military satellite called GSAT-7 which was named Rukmini. This satellite covers a footprint of about 2000 nautical miles and is designed primarily to provide secure, real time communication links between the land establishments, surface ships, submarines and aircraft of the Indian Navy. Five years later, GSAT-7A, also called Angry Bird, was launched in 2018 from Sriharikota, for the IAF. The satellite helps in boosting the connectivity between the ground radar stations, airbases and the airborne early warning and control aircraft (AEW&C) of the IAF. It also helps in satellite controlled operations of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) which gives a great deal of reliability to the operations as compared to ground controlled operations. The Army will soon be getting its own dedicated communication satellite, the GSAT-7B. As of now, it shares 30 percent of GSAT-7A transponder capacity.
In 2020, the EMISAT was also launched through a PSLV launch for electromagnetic intelligence gathering. It has an Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) package called Kautilya, which allows the interception of ground-based radar and also carries out electronic surveillance across India. This satellite circles the globe pole-to-pole, and is helpful in gathering information from radars of countries that have borders with India. India also has a RISAT 2BR1 synthetic aperture radar imaging satellite, which was launched in December 2019 from Sriharikota. Presumably, there are over a dozen Indian satellites which are dual use and have military applications.
A significant advancement in military capability was the successful test carried out in March 2019 of India's anti-satellite weapon. India is the fourth country in the world after the US, Russia and China to develop this capability. The significance in the Indian context is that such a capability will deter a hostile power from attempting to destroy Indian satellites as they could be faced with retaliatory measures.
Defence Space Agency
India established two new space agencies in 2019: the Defense Space Agency (DSA) and the Defense Space Research Organisation (DSRO). Existing military organisations such as the Defense Imagery Processing and Analysis Center and the Defense Satellite Control Center have now been merged into the DSA. The Agency formulates space strategy for the military with a focus on leveraging communications and reconnaissance satellites to integrate intelligence and firepower across the range of Indian military capabilities. The DSRO facilitates the development of civilian space technology for military purposes.
The DSA will probably be focussed on the Indian Ocean where China is increasing its influence and the Himalayas where there is increasing Chinese intransigence. On India's land border, satellite coverage would, at the very minimum, be required over the whole of Tibet and Xinjiang Province. As of now, India has limited satellites in the sky and military applications can be said to be in their infancy. To that extent, India is a much smaller player as compared to the US, Russia and China. However, with the space sector now being opened up to the private sector, we can expect to see in the coming years a quantum leap in space applications in the civil, commercial, and defence verticals.
Chinese Space Capabilities
China on the other hand is aiming to be a global leader in space by 2050. In 2015, China established the PLA Strategic Support Force (PLASSF), under which function all of China's military space assets. It is structured to engage in the information space, with emphasis on electronic countermeasures, network offence and defence and satellite management. Focus areas are on target acquisition, reconnaissance, navigation operations and electronic and cyber warfare and countermeasures. China aims to have a permanent space station by the end of this year, a lunar research base by 2036 and solar power satellite (SPS) transmission capability from geostationary orbit (GEO) by 2050. China also has its own navigation system, BeiDou.
Indian Initiatives
Currently, India possesses more than a dozen military satellites. The Indian military also uses a variety of commercial satellites and those run by friendly foreign nations in its operations. Many of these are prohibitively expensive and carry the danger of service interruption in the event of emergencies. A heartening development now is the creation of Indian Space Association (ISpA), in October 2021, This is an apex industry body, which provides a platform to the private space industry and heralds the opening of the space sector to private entities. ISpA will be the collective voice of the Indian Space Industry, with an aim to create an enabling environment to strengthen the private industry in the Indian Space Sector. What ISpA hopes to do is to make India a global hub in all areas related to space technologies. It will energise business growth, interface with defence and security agencies and enhance international partnerships and cooperation in space. The entry of the private sector into space is a major initiative and will greatly enhance India's space capabilities. In essence, ISpA seeks to make India a global space manufacturing hub with participation of Indian private industry and startups and provide space based solutions both for the domestic and international market while also meeting the space aspirations of the security and strategic sector. Many startups have also entered the space sector despite the risks involved. The effective leveraging of the private sector can be a game changer and ensure that India catches up quickly with the big three in space. This would require financial support and continuous policy reforms to create an enabling climate.
Conclusion
Space is the frontier where the course of future war will be decided. It is crucial to aggressively improve defence space capabilities as part of the “militarization of space”. How this plays out over the next decade will determine India's relative standing in the comity of nations. Space assets are by nature dual use assets. India should not shy away from using them for the defence of the motherland. With this I conclude. Thank you, Jai Bharat, Jai Hind. I am open to questions now.
Q&A
Some in the Indian defence community have advocated for more drastic changes, such as creating a military space service akin to the Space Force in the United States. This would make protecting India’s expanding satellite network easier and set the stage for coercive measures against adversary networks. India is still well-positioned to benefit from its positive relations with Russia and the United States, the two most developed space powers in the world, even though it is still unclear whether India has the long-term technological and financial foundations required to support a separate space force.
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