BUILDING THE RIGHT NARRATIVE

Introduction

We are living in the information age. The advent of the smartphone and the internet has placed information at the tip of our fingers and communication has never been so easy. In India, smart phone penetration stands at over 66 per cent, and is expected to be as high as 95 per cent by 2040. An individual today is instantly connected with family and friends—indeed with the whole world through the social media. Today, mobile devices enable practically everything a person wishes to do, from listening to books, taking pictures, playing games, editing documents, getting medical opinion or carrying out financial transactions. While this has empowered the individual like never before, it also comes with certain risks. Information consumed may not be true. It may be used to incite target groups to violence, create social discord, subvert populations and create anarchy. The Armed Forces too are not immune from this phenomenon.

India’s military has traditionally been viewed with great respect in the country. In a study carried out by market research firm Ipsos, over 70 per cent of Indians in urban areas stated that the armed forces were the most trustworthy, followed by scientists and teachers. Even in areas where the Army has been deployed for a long time in Counter Insurgency and Counter Terrorism (CICT) operations, the local population has always held the Armed Forces in great esteem. That goes to the credit of the Armed Forces personnel and to the military leadership. It is essential that the trust level between the people and their Armed Forces be maintained at the highest level. It is also essential that nothing should be done to dent the morale of the soldier, as the military is the final bastion in the nations defence structure. Service grievances, hence, need to be dealt with expeditiously, as these can be exploited through the social media to create tension. Personnel also need to be protected from fake news and false narratives. This is a matter of serious concern that would require focussed attention by the military and political leadership.

Concerns of the Armed Forces: Parity in Pay and Allowances

Over the years, concerns have been expressed by both serving personnel as well as by the veteran community of a perceived dilution in the status and entitlements of the Armed Forces. While the people of India have great respect for the Armed Forces, the same cannot be said of the nations bureaucracy. An example is the manner in which successive pay commissions have handled the issue of pay and allowances of Armed Forces personnel.

As equivalence in seniority between armed forces personnel and the civilian bureaucracy is equated with pay scales, the manner in which pay and allowances are looked into by each pay commission, plays a critical role in determining such equivalence. The first pay commission was established in 1946 and it gave its report in May 1947 to the interim government of India. The commission was set up with a retired judge of the Supreme Court of India as the chairperson and with members from the Indian Administrative Service. There was no representation from the military, and this has remained the trend since then, in all the pay commissions that have been held thereafter, at intervals varying from 11 to 12 years. However, the gap between the sixth and seventh pay commissions, established in 2006 and 2013 respectively was only nine years, perhaps to leverage electoral advantage in the 2014 general elections. 

It was the third Central Pay Commission (CPC) that for the first time was tasked to enquire into the structure of emoluments of both the civilian employees of the Government and the Armed Forces. Prior to this, the matter was entrusted to departmental committees. It was the third CPC which resulted in pension anomalies  for military veterans. The fact that military personnel retired at an early age was not given due consideration. The fourth CPC came out with the concept of rank pay, but deceitfully deducted the amount from the basic pay. This led to a decrease in basic pay, which created huge anomalies in equivalence between military officers and their civilian counterparts and was akin to a fraud being committed on the Armed Forces. 

The fifth CPC recommendations for lateral transfer of Armed Forces personnel remained on paper and were not implemented. The seventh CPC recommended Non-functional Financial Upgradation (NFU) for IAS and other Group A Services, but denied the same to the Armed Forces as well as to the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF). the seventh CPC also mandated time-scale promotions to defence civilians from audit and account services, police, and other officers at regular intervals of 4, 9, 13, 14, and 16 years of service but did not do so for the armed forces officers. This has created absurd equivalences, with very junior officers from the civil services being equated with senior officers from the Armed Forces and throwing up functional problems where both have to work in the same organisation.

In the matter of allowances, the seventh CPC, recognising the need for compensating soldiers who served in difficult areas like the Siachen Glacier, increased the allowance for serving in such areas to Rs 31,500 per month for officers and Rs 21000 for JCO’s and below. However, they at the same time, gave a Special Duty Allowance to civilians serving in the Northeast amounting to 30 percent of basic pay. Group A officers posted in state capitals like Aizawl, Guwahati, Shillong and Kohima were entitled to such allowance, which in real terms was more than what the military got for serving in the hardest battlefield like the Siachen! The Service Chiefs wrote a letter to the Raksha Mantri pointing out these and other anomalies but no action was taken and the 7th CPC was implemented without rectification.

The issue of One rank One Pension (OROP) has also caused a lot of heartburn to the Armed Forces fraternity. Promised more than five decades ago, it was conveniently brushed under the carpet. The BJP led NDA government finally granted OROP on 7 November 2015 and to a large extent, met the requirements of the Forces. However,   there are still some issues which need resolution and it is hoped that a more constructive approach is adopted to resolve the issue in its entirety.

The issue of NFU, parity in allowances and anomalies in the seventh CPC also need to be addressed. It would be best to have a service member as part of the next CPC, which is likely to be held in 2026, to ensure that the interests of the Armed Forces are not compromised in future. 

Counter Insurgency and Counter Terrorism Operations

The long periods in which the Army has been engaged in Counter Insurgency and Counter Terrorism (CICT) operations has also led to an increasing spotlight being focussed on the military with respect to its functioning, especially on the issue of Human Rights. Many activists as well as some members of the judiciary, the media and others, continue to question the conduct of the Army in CICT operations, mostly due to a lack of understanding of the environment in which the Army has to operate as well as on the nature of the threat and response mechanisms required to negate the same. More insidious is the attempt by a coterie which deliberately targets the Army as part of an agenda to denigrate India’s Armed Forces. 

On 9 April 2017, Maj Gogoi used a civilian as a human shield to extricate some security forces personnel from stone pelters in Kashmir. This incident received a lot of media attention, with political parties in J&K castigating the Army and calling its action inhuman. A few senior veterans who should have known better also got into the bandwagon to criticise the incident. The central point however, was that the extrication was carried out without any loss of life or injury. The officer acted in good faith in terms of the law, in the circumstances then prevailing, but it suited a section of people to politicise the incident. A former judge of the Allahabad High Court, Justice Devi Prasad Singh however put the incident in the correct perspective when he said that the action taken by Major Gogoi was correct and in conformance with Sections 76, 78, 79, 80 and 81 of the IPC. 

On 3 November 2014, military personnel manning a vehicle check post fired on a car which did not stop when asked to do so. There were five occupants in the car, all teenagers, two of whom were killed in the firing and two were injured. The incident was extensively covered in the media and given a political hue. To defuse tensions the Army, after conducting a swift inquiry, indicted nine soldiers who were part of the vehicle check post. This was unfortunate. All vehicles have to stop at check points as a security measure in the prevailing environment and firing on the car which was speeding away was in order as the occupants of the car could well have been terrorists. Indicting the military personnel sent a wrong message to the security forces that a person can be punished for simply doing his duty. Military personnel would be loath to act in future which would result in worsening the security situation.

The recent incident of 4 December, 2021, wherein troops of 21 Para SF fired on a vehicle in the Tiru-Oting area of Mon district in Nagaland after receiving wrong intelligence inputs about move of a terrorist groups, highlights the challenges faced by security forces in CICT operations. Six villagers were killed in the ambush, which was unfortunate, but such occurrences are rare and need not be blown out of proportion. In high intensity operations carried out over many years, there will be cases where human error comes into play. This has to be understood both by the judiciary as well as by political parties. India’s enemies will try to make political capital of such incidents, but these have to be effectively countered with facts. The Indian Army has consistently focussed on ensuring that the civil population suffers no collateral damage during CICT operations and its record has been exemplary, but there will be times that mishaps will occur. Such incidents are rare and the Army takes immediate corrective action. Interference by the judiciary in the Army’s conduct of CICT operations will have long-term negative consequences and will simply embolden terrorists and their sympathisers. The judiciary hence must be sensitised to this aspect as passions will be whipped up to stigmatise the Army and seek the repeal of AFSPA. In any case, if the security situation can be handled by the state police, then AFSPA will have no relevance. On this issue, the Army Chief, Gen MM Naravane was quite candid in an interview he gave to a news channel. “We are only the instruments in implementing AFSPA” he said. “I will be most happy if a call (to repeal AFSPA) is taken as the Army can focus on the conventional role of the Army” he added.

Shaping Perceptions and Attitudes

There is evidently a need to shape the perceptions and opinions of the citizens along with ensuring the morale and welfare of the Armed Forces. The two issues are complementary and aren’t mutually exclusive.

With respect to issues which impact the Armed Forces and veterans, there should be a degree of circumspection exercised by the veteran community on matters which impact on the Armed Forces. It is inappropriate, to say the least, for veterans to pass critical comments on the senior military leadership or on military operations which the Armed Forces undertake. Those at the helm in the military should also tread carefully when dealing with issues that concern the veterans. Perhaps institutionalised interaction on a quarterly basis between the veterans and the serving personnel could smoothen matters to a great degree. This would keep the serving personnel informed of the concerns of veterans, and the veterans would likewise be sensitised to the working environment of the decision makers and the challenges therein. 

The military fraternity functions on trust, camaraderie and morale. Ill conceived words and actions can greatly damage the military’s internal cohesion. This is not to state that disagreements should be swept under the carpet. Rather, it is a call to the veterans, to develop circumspection in the manner in which they deal with the media and it is an appeal to the military leadership for empathy in policy decisions impacting both serving and retired personnel.

The creation of the office of the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), has met a long-felt need of the Armed Forces. The CDS has also been made a Secretary in the newly created Department of Military Affairs (DMA). There has been uninformed criticism of making the CDS also don the hat of the Secretary, DMA. The criticism is focussed on protocol issues, but what is not appreciated is that earlier,  the services had no say in decision making and now, with the CDS being Secretary, DMA, this lacuna is finally addressed. Now, being a part of the government and not just a mere department of the Ministry of Defence, the Armed Forces have a much greater role to play in their own affairs. This will impact positively on the modernisation process, and hopefully should lead to better civil-military coordination. Also, it can now be expected that when the eighth CPC is constituted in 2026, it will have a representative from the military. This will eliminate discrimination against the Armed Forces as seen in the seventh and earlier CPC’s. The office of the Secretary DMA as well as the CDS will henceforth play an important role in the modernisation of the Armed Forces as also in ensuring that soldiers are not short-changed in future.

There is also a need to sensitise the judiciary as well as civil rights groups and the public at large on the issue of the Army’s functioning in CICT operations. Think tanks can play a great role in this regard. The veteran community can also play a major role in shaping perceptions and attitudes in this regard in TV debates and discussions and through their writing on the subject in the print media, especially in the regional language. For this, the serving fraternity should be upfront in providing data so that the facts can be presented in a timely manner and in the correct perspective.

Let us remember that we are now living in the information age. Information is being weaponised to bring out a sense of insecurity within the military fraternity and create a wedge between the Armed Forces and the civilian population. Such actions can be countered through a proactive approach, by laying the correct facts before the people and allaying their misgivings. The Armed Forces are the final instrument of the state and have served the nation with distinction. We must be cognisant of the attempts being made by the enemies of India to blunt the instrument of last resort. The consequences of the same can seriously impact our independence as Indian history since the 8th century CE has shown. We cannot afford to go down that path again.

Published in Scholar Warrior, Spring 2022

A SHAMEFUL NATIONAL SECURITY BREACH

The events which unfolded on the morning of 5 January 2022, over a period of five hours, are indeed very troubling. India’s Prime Minister was on an official visit to Punjab where he was to  pay homage at the National Martyrs Memorial at Hussainiwala and thereafter lay the foundation stone for the PGIMER’s satellite centre in Ferozepur along with some other projects. Later in the day he was to address an election rally. The Prime Minister landed at the Bhatinda Air Force base at 10.30 am, but could not move by helicopter to Hussainiwala due to bad weather. Prime Minister Modi thereafter decided to continue the journey by road via the Faridkot-Moga Highway, a distance of 120 km, which takes about two hours. 

Leaving Bhatinda at 10.50 am, the PMs cavalcade proceeded smoothly without incident for over a 100 kilometres, when a large group of protesters, squatting on the flyover near Piareana village in Ferozepur district prevented them from going any further. The time was 1.40 pm and after waiting for about 20 minutes on the road, the Prime Minister’s convoy turned around and headed back for Bhatinda at 2 pm, reaching the Air Force base at 3.20 pm. The Prime Minister thereafter left by air and returned to Delhi.

What is shocking about this whole sordid affair is the total apathy and incompetence displayed by the Punjab government and its administration. The Punjab Chief Minister, Mr CS Channi,  attempted to wash his hands of the affair, when he told the media that his government had no intimation that the Prime Minister would move by road. In the same interview, he contradicted himself saying that he worked till 3 am in the night, convincing farmers to clear all routes! Was Mr Channi really so naive or was he simply incompetent? Or worse still, was he complicit in what transpired? There are well laid down drills whenever a VIP movement by helicopter takes place and one of them is to cater for bad weather. A road convoy is always kept at stand by, to enable move by road should the weather not permit move by helicopter. This was known to all in the Punjab administration, which was why the road move had been catered for earlier, as part of contingency planning. 

The lackadaisical attitude displayed by the civil administration and the Punjab police is equally baffling and suggests utter indifference and total incompetence. Why was the route not sanitised and picketed? This should have been done as part of contingency planning, even if the Prime Minister was moving by helicopter. But there are two more breaches which defy comprehension. Was the administration not aware of what the protesters were up to? And how did the protesters come to know that the Prime Minister was moving by road? The first implies intelligence failure and the second a security breach, wherein someone in the know, informed the protesters of the Prime Minster’s move to include the route and time plan. Both these aspects need to be thoroughly investigated.

It is also surprising that protocol was not followed when the Prime Minister landed in Bhatinda. As per protocol, when the Prime Minister visits a town outside the state capital, the Chief Minister or a minister nominated by the state government must be present to receive the Prime Minister. The two senior most executives and police officers of the district must also be present to receive the Prime Minister. In this case, anticipating the possibility of a road move, there should have been a senior police officer present to accompany the Prime Ministers cavalcade to Ferozepur. It was his duty to see that the road was clear for the Prime Minsters move and he should have moved ahead of the Prime Minster’s cavalcade. The SPG Act empowers the Director SPG to issue directives on all authorities to assist him in providing fool-proof security to the P.M. It was thus the responsibility of the Punjab administration to have ensured that the route taken by the Prime Minister was clear.

The Prime Minister of India was stranded on the middle of a highway for about 20 minutes, with 200 odd protesters blocking his route. Anything could have happened, for even the public moving on the road below, knew the Prime Ministers cavalcade had stopped. And if Khalistani groups were also involved, then, as they are in cahoots with Pakistan’s ISI, the possibility of a drone attack on India’s Prime Minister, on the lines of what happened in the Air Force Base in Jammu was also a possibility. The Punjab administration must be held to account for the multiple lapses that have occurred, for it was not just the Prime Minister who was exposed to unnecessary risk, but the entire edifice of India’s democracy.

What is needed is a quick investigation into the lapses that occurred and holding to account, all those who compromised the security of the Prime Minister. In the charged security environment in which we are at present, only quick and firm action will send the right signals, both to India’s external enemies as also to those who continuously undermine India’s security from within.

The author is a retired Major General and is presently Director, India Foundation.

Population ControlAddressing the Core Issue: Reducing Population

The debate on the impact of population growth essentially centres around two contrary views. The Malthusian view is predicated on the proposition that human population grows in geometric progression whereas food supply grows in arithmetic proportion. Food supply will hence run out, giving rise to the need to curtail population growth. Malthus believed that high rates of population will permanently condemn societies to a perpetual state of under development. This theory received the support of economists such as JS Mills and JM Keynes. Karl Marx, however, gave a contrary view, which was supported by sociologists. Marx stated that the widespread poverty and misery of the working class people was not due to an eternal law of nature as propounded by Malthus but to the misconceived organisation of society and by the unequal distribution of the wealth and its accumulation by capitalists.

The debate essentially revolves around four key issues:

Do small families improve the prospects of children.

Is a rapidly growing population detrimental to economic growth?

Is high fertility a result of low income and poverty?

Is rapid population growth a symptom, rather than a cause, of poor economic performance?

Food shortages, of which Malthus expressed concern have been largely overcome by advances in science and improved agriculture. However, this does not take away from the fact that larger populations require greater consumption, which stresses the environment, pollutes the atmosphere and causes environmental degradation, which is already causing concerns to people across the globe.

The population of the world, which stood at around 2.6 billion in 1950, took just 37 years to nearly double to 5 billion in 1987, adding an additional 2.4 billion people to the planet. The next billion was added in just 12 years, making the world’s population touch the 7 billion mark in 1999. By 2050, the world’s population is expected to increase to 9.7 billion, and peak at a round 11 billion by 2100.

In the Indian subcontinent, an examination of the populations of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, between independence in 1947, to the present times, reveals that the population of India increased fourfold during this period. The population of Pakistan, for the same period, increased seven times and Bangladesh, six times. In India, the rate of population increase was not uniform, increasing about six times among the Muslim population and three times among the rest. There is a view that the unbridled growth of population in India and in other parts of the world has adversely impacted development initiatives to reduce poverty and has also led to substantive environmental degradation.

In her book, Building the Population Bomb (Oxford University Press, 2021), Emily Klancher Merchant states that overpopulation has been blamed for everything from climate change to poverty. She however posits that it is not population growth but global socio-economic inequality and environmental degradation that are the causative factors and that society incorrectly blamed a "population bomb” for problems that had other causes. “A wrong diagnosis,” she avers, produces ineffective solutions. In this, she echoes the Marxian viewpoint.

That is perhaps an oversimplification of a problem which has multiple dimensions, but Ms Merchant is not the only one who believes that reducing poverty will ipso facto, lead to a reduction in population. In their book, ‘Population and Development, Dennis Ahlburg and Robert Cassen note that, while it is believed that more rapid population growth increases poverty by reducing real wages, the relationship with poverty is ‘neither obvious nor well established’. They question the assumption that an increase in the labour force necessarily reduces wages, but caution that the relationship between population and poverty varies considerably across regions, countries, growth sectors and policy environments.

In a study carried out, examining the link between population and per capita income growth and poverty, a case study of Uganda is instructive. Uganda achieved reasonable economic growth while also experiencing high population growth. However, the evidence garnered in the study also suggested that “the currently high population growth puts a considerable break on per capita growth prospects in Uganda”. The study further went to state that high population growth led to low achievement in poverty reduction, which concomitantly, made it very difficult to make substantial improvements in poverty reduction and per capita growth.

There is no gainsaying the fact that unbridled population growth hinders poverty alleviation programmes, attenuates consumption and waste and has a negative impact on societies and the worlds eco-system. The examples of South Korea and Taiwan—two countries which have successfully controlled population growth, are instructive in this regard. Both these countries have seen rapid increases in per capita incomes as birth rates declined, giving them a positive demographic dividend.

There is a need to control population growth through policy initiatives through expanding education and health care, especially for the girl child, and on implementing voluntary family planning programmes. This can succeed, as seen in an experiment conducted in the Matlab region of Bangladesh, in a controlled population group, a portion of which was provided with free services and supplies, home visits by well-trained female family-planning workers, and comprehensive media communication. The programme also had an outreach to husbands, village heads and religious leaders to obviate any backlash from the male population. The results indicated a substantial decline in fertility rates—1.5 percent— between the targeted population and the non-targeted population in the controlled area. This shows that family planning programmes can succeed in conservative societies. Other countries such as Iran and Rwanda too have shown similar results.

Over the years, based on empirical data, a causal relationship has been established between rising prosperity and declining fertility. Both East Asia and some countries of South East Asia are examples of this trend that as incomes rise, fertility tends to fall and between national income growth and falling birth rates as also between family incomes and fertility. Improved economic conditions, therefore, do lead to a decline in birth rates. But for the converse to hold true, would require good governance models. In any case, the debate should now focus on both aspects: Good governance and taking measures to reduce the birth rates. Both should go hand in hand, simultaneously. 

India should lay emphasis on population control measures that are enlightened and in the interest of women. Improved education and health care for the girl child, better and improved access to reproductive health control, a concerted media campaign on the need and necessity for small families, sensitising religious and local leaders on the issue and making them part of the programme, are some of the initiatives which could be taken. Alongside, must be legislation to encourage the small family norm, through incentives and disincentives. The recent bill passed in parliament, bringing the age of marriage of girls on parity with boys to 21 years is a welcome step. 

The resources of the earth are limited and population control is the need of the hour. This is also in conformity with the goals as laid down by the United Nations. While population trends are not explicitly mentioned in the SDGs, but several of the SDGs are directly or indirectly related to future demographic trends. As humans are the only polluters in the planet, restricting their unbridled growth must remain the core issue for India and the world.

Published in IFJ, 1 January 2022

REMEMBERING THE LIBERATION WAR ON ITS GOLDEN JUBILEE

Today, on 16 December 2021, we commemorate the Golden Jubilee of Vijay Divas—the Liberation War. This is also a time to introspect and remember all those who fought for freedom and pay homage to those who laid down their lives and who were wounded in action in this war.

The perfidy of the West Pakistan dominated ruling elite in refusing to hand over power to Sheikh Mujibur Rahman after he had won the elections in 1970 was the final straw that led him to declare independence. And to suppress the surge in Bengali nationalism, the Pakistan military began the infamous ‘Operation Searchlight’ at the stroke of midnight on 25 March 1971, resulting in the worst genocide in modern times. Over the next nine months, the Pakistan military killed over three million Bengalis and raped over two million women.

Brutality, unfortunately, has been the lexicon of the Pakistan army, ever since Pakistan came into existence. It started with the rape and killing of innocents in Kashmir in October 1947 and then continued with the murder, abduction and rape of  civilians in Balochistan during the first, second and third Baluch resistance movements in 1948, 1958 and 1962-1969 respectively. The US and the West maintained a quiescent silence, overlooking the barbarity of the Pakistan military, simply because Pakistan was, to them, a frontline state in the Cold War against the Soviet Union. The genocide of the hapless Bengalis was thus a continuation of Pakistan military brutality which was ingrained in their psyche. They knew that they could get away and the world would remain a silent spectator, sacrificing human rights and dignity on the altar of political expediency. It is a sad fact of history that even after the defeat of the Pakistan military in 1971, the perpetrators of genocide were not tried for crimes against humanity. That is why Pakistan continues to remain a troubled state and is embroiled with myriad insurgencies. The Pakistan military has never been held accountable for  its actions.

Over ten million people crossed over to India as refugees and from among their ranks were formed the Multi Bahini, which was raised and trained in India and from which rose a resistance movement. The Multi Bahini constantly harassed the Pakistan military, leaving them no respite and forcing their units to disperse. By mid November, the Indian Army was fighting alongside the Mukti Bahini, after receiving orders to capture weakly held BOPs and secure lodgement areas to establish the Bangladesh government on its soil to gain political credibility and mileage.

The Mukti Bahini's initial operations along the border set the stage for the offensive operations of the Indian Armed Forces, which began on the night of 3-4 December 1971. Moving on four thrust lines against the Pakistani defence network which comprised three infantry divisions plus a large number of Wings of East Pakistan Rifles and West Pakistan Rangers, the operations culminated in 13 days with the surrender of the Pakistan military in Dhaka.

It was however the Eastern thrust from India’s IV Corps commanded by General Sagat Singh that made spectacular progress and broke the back of Pakistani resistance. On 9 December, 4 Guards had been lifted by MI-4 helicopters and dropped across the mighty Meghna River, South-West of Bhairab Bazar. Next day, as 4 Guards had secured the bridgehead across the Meghna, 19 Punjab and a battalion of the East Bengal Rifles, commanded by Lt Col Shafiullah, who later rose to be the Chief of the Bangladesh Army were ferried across the River. By 11 December, two more battalions, 18 Rajput and 10 Bihar had been airlifted by helicopters to Narsingdi. The road to Dhaka now lay open.

On 11 December, 2 Para Battalion Group, taking off from the Dum Dum and Kalaikonda airfields, was para-dropped into Tangail, 70 miles North-West of Dhaka. The battalion captured Poongli Bridge and later that night set an ambush for the retreating Pakistani troops from Jamalpur, causing heavy casualties to the enemy. By 12th evening, a link up had been established by 95 Mountain Brigade of 101 Communication Zone Force (CZF), thus opening another axis to Dhaka. On 14 December, the Indian Air Force mounted an attack on the Governor’s house, after Indian intelligence intercepted a message about a high-level meeting of the civil leadership, taking place there. While the meeting was in progress, four MiG 21 aircraft of 28 Squadron based in Guwahati fired their rockets which ripped through the massive roof of the main hall. The Governor, Mr AH Malik was shell-shocked and tendered his resignation with immediate effect. This proved to be the proverbial last straw that broke the camel’s back. On 15 December, 311 Brigade was close to Gulshan Model Town next to Dhaka Cantonment and 301 Brigade was in the area of Adamji Jute Mills in Narayanganj. 101 CZF was at Mirpur Bridge over the Bhuriganga River and early next morning was at Kurmitola. The Pakistani Army in Dhaka was now hemmed in from all sides and it was simply a matter of time and form, on how they would surrender.

The initial plans of Army Headquarters and of the Eastern Command did not envisage Dhaka as the terminal objective. It was General Sagat’s brilliance and strategic foresight which made him turn the direction of his thrust towards Dhaka as against his orders to advance towards Chittagong. His crossing of the Meghna on 9  December was a master stroke, and could well have led to the end of the war at that stage itself. Gavin Young, a British correspondent reported that General Niazi, soon after getting information of the crossing of the Meghna, informed Army HQ in Rawalpindi that he was no longer in a position to stop the Indian advance and asked them to arrange for a ceasefire. He was prepared to surrender on the 10th itself, but was given false hopes of American and Chinese intervention held out by Yahya Khan, and so he desisted.

Recently, two books on the Liberation War have been published, one by Mr Jairam Ramesh, a politician and the other by Mr Chandrashekhar Dasgupta, a retired diplomat, both questioning the narrative put forth by Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw that the then Prime Minister, Smt Indira Gandhi, delayed the start of the war from April-May to December, based on his advice. It is likely that Indira Gandhi had received advice on the timing of the war from many quarters, and not only from the Army Chief. But it was the Chief’s advice which would have been binding. Politicians do not set the date for military operations without military advice as that is a sure recipe for disaster and Indira Gandhi was much too shrewd a person to fight a war which could be lost. She would have listened to advice from her Chief. A needless controversy really to undermine an iconic Army Chief, but such barbs cannot dent the image of the Field Marshal. 

In the final analysis, the Liberation War was a victory for humanity, won by the combined efforts of the Indian Armed Forces, the Mukti Bahini and the people of Bangladesh. With the surrender of the Pakistan armed forces, an era of unprecedented brutality committed by the Pakistan military came to an end. Today, as we commemorate the Golden Jubilee of the Liberation War, let us also build on this spirit of cooperation to make the region a safer and better place for the people of the two countries and also for the region.

SUPERSONIC: A THRILLER THAT REWRITES HISTORY By Murali Murti Book Reviewed by Maj Gen Dhruv C. Katoch

On 6 August 1945, Colonel Paul Warfield Tibbets, the 30 year old commander of 509 Composite Group, US Army Air Force, flew a mission which was to bring World War II to a quick close and change the course of world history. Flying the B-29 Superfortress—an American four-engined propeller-driven heavy bomber, named Emola Gray by Tibbets after his mother, the mission was to release a 10,000 pound atomic bomb, dubbed “Little Boy,” over the Japanese city of Hiroshima. The bomb was dropped at 0815 local time, the blast killing about 100,000 people and injuring countless more. Japan surrendered nine days later, on 15 August, bringing World War II to an end. But a new era of atomic warfare had begun. 

The US effort to build an atomic weapon had been designated as the Manhattan Project. The Soviet Union soon followed with its first atomic test on 29 August 1949, code-named RDS-1. Britain tested its first nuclear device in 1952, France in 1960 and China in 1964. The nuclear race had well and truly begun. But it was destined to be within these five powers, for none of them wanted nuclear technology to further proliferate. And thus began under the radar operations to prevent other countries from acquiring these technologies—and India was in the crosshairs of such attempts.

Towards the end of World War II, a brilliant Indian nuclear physicist, Homi Bhabha, conceived the idea of setting up a school of research in fundamental physics, with special reference to cosmic rays and nuclear physics. He hoped to set up such an institute in Bombay, with support from the Tata group through their trust funds. And thus began India’s journey in this very exotic branch of science. Unknown to him, there were forces at work which would go to any length to see that he did not succeed.

Along with India’s nuclear ambitions, was the quest to produce its own fighter jet aircraft. This became another bone of contention with the nuclear haves, who wanted to deny India not only the means to produce a nuclear weapon, but also the means to deliver such a weapon.

In this backdrop, Murali Murti has set the stage for his novel, “Supersonic - A Thriller that Rewrites History”. The plot is nothing short of a Frederick Forsyth pot-boiler, which keeps the reader glued to the book. Set as a novel, it makes the reader wonder where truth ends and fiction begins. Or is this simply truth telling, disguised as fiction? It is a fact that people who were involved in India’s nuclear programme died under mysterious circumstances. Homi Bhabha, in an interview he gave to All India Radio in October 1965, stated that if given the green signal, India could make a nuclear bomb in 18 months. Three months later, Bhabha was dead, killed when the Air India Flight 101 he was travelling in—a Boeing 707 airplane named Kanchenjunga—crashed near Mont Blanc on 24 January 1966. A few days earlier, on the night of 11 January 1966, India’s Prime Minister, Lal Bahadur Shastri died in Tashkent, after concluding a peace deal with Pakistan, under Soviet auspices, post the 1965 India-Pakistan War. The cause of Shastri’s death remains a mystery till date. No autopsy was carried out of his body, even after it was brought back to India! Significantly, Shastri had given the green signal to manufacture the bomb. These deaths cannot be put aside as mere coincidence. Neither can the death of Vikram Sarabhai in December 1971. Sarabhai was the Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission when death came to him in a quiet room in a Kovalam resort on 30 December 1971. His death too was not investigated. That India still tested its first nuclear device in Rajasthan’s Pokhran desert on 18 May 1974—an operation code named Smiling Buddha—is a testimony to the grit and determination of India’s scientific community and the support it received from every Prime Minister of India, who upheld the national interest above all else.

Along with hostile attempts to sabotage India’s nuclear programme, there were attempts to scuttle the building of India’s first fighter jet aircraft. The story of Kurt Tank who helped India make its first fighter jet, the HF 24 Marut, and the devious attempts to sabotage India’s nascent fighter jet programme cannot just be wished away. Could India have had a robust aerospace sector today, had things been done differently then? One wonders! The lessons are stark and clear. In the realms of upper end technology, other nations will be out to scuttle India’s programmes. The Nambi Narayanan case, though not part of this book, is just an example to show the extent that foreign agencies can go to, to scuttle cutting edge technology development in India. Nambi Narayanan was in charge of the cryogenics division at ISRO and he was falsely implicated on trumped up charges and imprisoned. That set back India’s quest for a cryogenic engine by a good two decades. 

The world of shady defence deals, and the death and destruction it brings in its wake makes for spine-chilling reading in this book, and starkly brings home the truth about the Indian defence public sector’s shoddy performance, which is why India has remained dependent on imports for meeting its defence requirements. Much of the development effort for a vibrant defence industry was scuttled by officials who could be bribed for a pittance or lured through other means. This is a story of corrupt politicians and government officials, shady arms dealers, of spies and killers lurking in the shadows, a story which makes one sad to see how national interest can be compromised for a handful of silver. But it is also a story of hope, of rejuvenation, of women and men with unimpeachable integrity, of those occupying high office in the political realm, and also in government and in the private sector, who could not be bought and for whom the country came above all else. Many such people remain unacknowledged, primarily due to the nature of work that they were then doing and which many continue to do in the present times. It is a mix of the Good, the Bad and the Ugly, all juxtaposed in a seamless web, to come to what most certainly is a fascinating twist in the tale, in the very last chapter.

Do read this book. It is a thriller. More importantly, it gives an insight into what India is up against, both from external agencies and from fifth columnists within. The book could have done with better editing at a few places and the language used is prosaic, akin to a Chetan Bhagat novel, but that is a minor inconvenience. So go out, get yourself a copy, sit on the cockpit and enjoy a Supersonic Ride. You will not regret it. 

 

The Killings in Kashmir: A Shift in Terrorist Strategy

The recent killings of non-muslims in Kashmir bespeaks of a new strategy being adopted by Pakistan’s ISI to foment fear and discontent in the Union Territory and to unhinge the return of normalcy in the Valley.

Gen Zia-ul-Haq’s sinister strategy to “bleed India through a thousand cuts” gave form to Bhutto’s promise of a thousand-year war. At that time, provocative statements made by both Bhutto and Zia were not mere rhetoric, but formed the core of a war fighting strategy which sought to use terrorism as an instrument of state policy. Today, this facet of Pakistan’s foreign policy remains a key component of its ideology and the very raison d’être for its existence. Thus began the era of cross-border terrorism in the late 1980s, with Pakistan pushing in armed and well-trained groups of terrorists into India. Pakistan referred to these terrorists as “freedom fighters,” and claimed that they were only providing moral support to such groups, but the truth tumbled out when a Director-General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) told the Pakistan National Assembly that the ISI had been sponsoring such support in Kashmir.

But even before the onset of terrorism in J&K, a more insidious process to radicalise the people had started in the 1960s, with the introduction of Salafi Islam, which gradually displaced the earlier Sufi school of thought. The Jamaat-e-Islami came onto the Kashmir scene in the late 1960s, and intoxicated the young minds about establishing a Caliphate. The Indian state, in a false sense of secularism, allowed the Jamaat to have its own schools, which over the years indoctrinated the young minds to a toxic jihadist ideology. In a comedy of errors, in 1992, the state government banned the Jamaat-e-Islami and its Falha-e-Aam trust (educational wing), for indulging in anti-social activity, but at the same time, issued an order for absorption of teachers of the Falah-e-Aam Trust in government schools. In one fell swoop, the Jamaat onslaught on government schools began.

It took great effort on the part of the Indian Army to bring Pakistan sponsored terrorism to manageable levels. By 1996 the situation had been brought sufficiently under control to permit the holding of state elections. For the next 22 years, elections were held regularly with political parties holding sway, except for a brief interregnum of six months in 2008 when Governor’s rule was imposed. In June 2018, Governor’s rule was once again imposed as no party could form a government.

A fence along the LoC, built in 2003-2004, under the directions of General NC Vij when he was the Army Chief curtailed the movement of terrorist groups. This, in conjunction with effective anti-terrorism hinterland operations, contributed to bringing down terrorist-related violence. This prompted a shift in strategy by the ISI. From 2008 onwards, stone pelting by the youth became the norm to bolster unrest in the state. Dealing with unarmed stone-pelting mobs became a new threat to the security forces, and even the use of non-lethal means raised a hue and cry by human rights activists. Stone pelting mobs were also used to extricate terrorists entrapped in encounters with the security forces, with hundreds of mobsters collecting at the site. The situation was not helped by the fact that the regional political parties often took a soft separatist stand, which further emboldened the terrorists as well as their Pakistani handlers.

The abrogation of the provisions of Article 370 and the splitting of the state into two union territories on 5 August 2019 created a new dynamic. The stone pelting mobs practically disappeared from the streets, the number of such recorded incidents in 2020 reducing by over 90 percent. A combination of security forces operations against terrorist groups, actions to curb terrorist fundings and a focus on the developmental agenda, helped bring about normalcy. This clearly was not to the liking of the Pakistan military, which has thriven on creating disturbance in the state. And so, a new strategy to promote violence in the state has now been formulated by the Pakistan military establishment. 

The new strategy aims to target the non-muslim civilian population in the UT. Killing non-muslim civilians at random throws up huge security challenges for the state. While the targets may be chosen at random, the killings of innocent civilians is not a random act but is part of a well designed strategy to promote fear through the use of violence.

The killing of Makhan Lal Bindroo, owner of a prominent Srinagar pharmacy on 5 October was hence carried out to instil fear in the minority Hindu population. Two other civilians were killed that day, one of whom was a labourer from Bihar. The killing of two people on 7 October, Ms Supinder Kaur, the principal of a local government school and Mr Deepak Chand, a school teacher, was part of the same nefarious design. The former belonged to the Sikh faith and the latter was a Hindu. Such targeted killings will now form part of the larger strategy being used by Pakistan to prevent the return of normalcy to the UT.

Obviously, the new methodology to stoke violence in the state will not be easy to address. A terrorist can simply walk up to a non-muslim, identified earlier, shoot the individual at point-blank range and disappear into the crowds. As mentioned earlier, the targets may be random but the act of killing is planned. This now opens up a totally new security paradigm for the state, which if not effectively handled, will have severe repercussions. At the tactical level, the need of the hour is effective policing and ground intelligence, to eliminate the terrorists. But at the strategic level, it is necessary to make the Pakistan military pay a heavy price for its support to terrorism. The coming winter will be a long, cold and dangerous one, with exceptionally high levels of violence, not seen since August 2019.

India China Relations: One Year Post Galwan

Tensions between India and China over continued Chinese attempts to encroach into Indian territory in its border with occupied Tibet, both in Eastern Ladakh and in Arunachal Pradesh, have been ongoing now for over a decade, largely due to the fact that China has not ceased creeping forward surreptitiously, in what is commonly referred to as ‘salami slicing’ tactics. Post the ice-breaking trip by India’s then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1988 to China, and the Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility along the Borders of September 1993, the two countries managed to deal with volatile situations without resorting to the use of kinetic force and without the loss of lives. This changed on 15 June 2020 when the Chinese attacked a small party led by the Commanding Officer of 16 Bihar, Colonel B Santosh Babu, which had gone to check whether the Chinese had dismantled a post in Galwan, as agreed upon in the meeting held earlier at the level of the Corps Commanders. While firearms were not used, the Chinese attacked the Indian party with metal spiked clubs and barbed-wire-wrapped rods. Indian troops rushed in reinforcements and in the ongoing clashes over the night, 20 Indian soldiers including Colonel Babu lost their lives, fighting on the narrow ledge. The Chinese, by various accounts lost between 35 and 100 men, but no formal acknowledgement of casualties was forthcoming from the Chinese political and military leadership.

This by itself tells a tale. Writing in ‘The Washington Post’,  Jianli Yang, the founder and president of Citizen Power Initiatives for China, said, “Beijing fears that admitting that it had lost troops, that too more in number than its opponent, could lead to major domestic unrest that can even put the regime of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at stake.” After a gap of eight months, in February 2021, China finally admitted it lost four soldiers in the Galwan clash. This was under reporting on a humungous scale, and led to many in the Chinese social media, ridiculing the Chinese claim. This also brought back memories of consistent Pakistan denial of the loss of its troops in Kargil  in 1999, which was equally shameful and condemnable. 

One year down the line after the Galwan clashes, relations between India and China remain frosty. Both sides mobilised their air and ground forces post the clashes and while disengagement has taken place in some areas, deescalation is still a far cry away. Post the Galwan clashes, India put a ban on 267 Chinese Apps on security concerns, with the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology giving out a press statement, "Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology has issued the order for blocking the access of these apps by users in India based on the comprehensive reports received from Indian Cyber Crime Coordination Center, Ministry of Home Affairs.” 

India’s External Affairs Minister (EAM) has stated on multiple occasions that relations between the two countries cannot be separated from happenings on the border. As recently as on 20 May 2021, in an event hosted by the Financial Times and the Indian Express, the EAM said that India’s relations with China are at a crossroads, and that the future trajectory of ties will depend on whether Beijing will adhere to pacts aimed at ensuring peace on the border. This insistence by India of linking the normalisation of trade, economic and other ties with China with peace and tranquility on the border marks a major shift in Indian policy, and is at stark variance with Chinese attempts to delink the two. 

Chinese intransigence has much to do with increasing Chinese nervousness with the Indian growth story, India’s refusal to join up with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and India’s closeness with the US. The Quad is viewed with great concern by Beijing, despite the fact that it has yet to form a charter and as of now, it is not a security grouping. But it is the potential of the Quad to derail Chinese ambitions in the South China Sea and in the wider Indo-pacific that is a matter of great concern to China. 

India’s push back against China in Eastern Ladakh has greatly disconcerted Beijing, which had not anticipated such a firm response. China had hoped that its threat of the use of force would force New Delhi to adopt a more conciliatory tone, especially as India was battling with the Covid-19 pandemic, which had spread from a virus which originated in Wuhan in China. As the Indian political and military leadership held firm, China was not willing to escalate to a limited level conflict, as failure to win would have impacted on the credibility of the CCP leadership. A quick victory in a limited conflict would require air dominance over the Tibetan plateau, which as of now the PLAAF does not possess. India would do well to ensure an edge in air capability over Tibetan air space to deter China.

Sino-Indian relations are unlikely to improve in the near to medium term as Chinese aims and objectives are not restricted to mere grabbing of territory along the Indo-Tibetan border but extend to achieving control over the entire Himalayan massif, which would give them control over the waters which flow into South Asia. While a conflict at this point of time between Indian and China appears unlikely, the probability of such an occurrence in the next decade or so appears high. India would have to prepare accordingly, especially in terms of building adequate infrastructure in all its areas of interest, enhancing its capability in the C4I2 domain, countering Chinese missile capability and in maintaining a credible air deterrence.

There is also a need to look Southwards towards the Oceans, where credible deterrence can be imposed on China on select choke points. India would have to invest more in sea capability and strengthen its naval arm accordingly. Greater focus would also be required on improving India’s defence industrial base, especially in terms of cutting edge technologies. Finally, on the political and diplomatic front, India would have to lead in strengthening the Quad and in countering Chinese moves in the area. Peace with China can only come about if India remains strong and vigilant, ready to impose costs on Chinese intransigence. India must prepare accordingly.

Published in Chintan: 18 June 2021