Wednesday, July 15, 2015

J&K: SHAPING THE INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT



Perception Management is increasingly being viewed as an essential tool to win the battles we are currently engaged in or are likely to face in the future. While shaping the information environment is not a substitute for hard power, its absence can diminish the result of hard fought success or amplify the impact of failure.   
Perceptions can be shaped through an understanding of the viewpoint of all stake holders involved. Today, the most interesting types of power do not come out of the barrel of a gun;  much bigger payoffs can be achieved by ‘getting others to want what you want’.  That is the essence of a successful perception management campaign. 
In counter insurgency or counter terrorism operations, a key component of perception management is the requirement to reach out to the hearts and minds of those people who directly or indirectly support the terrorist or who are simply sympathetic to the ‘cause’. At the strategic level, this would involve addressing causative factors through political, social and economic tools. Without this effort, a network can actually be defeated military, but still maintain support for the ‘cause’ whilst in a period of hibernation. At the operational level, activities which foment divisions within a terrorist network, undermine the morale of its members (particularly those on the fringe), and drive a wedge between the network and its support base will pay dividends. While direct action (military, law enforcement, intelligence, political, economic activities) will assist in this effort in the short term, long-term success will only come about when such support is withheld willingly because the people providing it have been convinced that it is no longer in their best interests to do so. 
With this as a backdrop, what should we do in the state of J&K? The situation has multiple complexities, especially when viewed in the context of identity, statehood and rights. Within J&K, perceptions vary in each of the three divisions of the state, the administration, the security forces and the political parties. An understanding of each viewpoint is essential to form a coherent and effective perception management campaign.
Objectives
While military force will remain an instrument to put pressure on the insurgent groups, the need to change mindsets is becoming increasingly relevant for conflict resolution. The end objective of a perception management plan would have to be considered at the strategic, operational and tactical levels. At the strategic level, Perception Management operations would entail creating a belief in Indian democracy, promoting religious harmony and the idea of ‘Kashmiriyat’ and preventing the Islamisation of society. This would have to be dealt with by the Centre and the state government. Actions at the operational and tactical level would involve isolating the insurgents from the population support base, neutralising the support which social and other organisations give to the insurgents,  educating the public on the need for laws such as AFSPA and creating a bond between the Indian Army and the local populace. It is important at this stage to understand what perceptions currently exist in the state and then look at measures to affect a change in the same.
Perceptions of Stakeholders

In the Valley, a small group of hardline Kashmiri activists remain vocal in their dual demand of removing the Army from Kashmir and having a plebiscite to decide their future. In this, they echo the line propagated by Pakistan but are silent on the status of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK). Many people in the Valley view the Army as being overly aggressive when moving around in public areas. They feel that the soldiers on the ground (as defined separately from the officers) operate from a position of permanent suspicion when it comes to dealing with locals and this reflects in their public dealing. It appears that ground troops who come in contact with the civilian population apparently lack communication and inter-personal skills and this facet militates against improving relations with the public. There is also a widespread belief that cases of human rights abuses from 1990 till date have not been addressed by the Army or the government. There is also a sense that troops do not exhibit adequate sensitivity while dealing with the citizens, especially women, children and the aged, when carrying out search operations or other activities. The humiliation felt by the common citizen when Army personnel or police personnel barge into their homes and ask for their identity cards is quite marked and enhances feelings of alienation. In the context of identity, this feeds the ‘we’ and ‘them’ syndrome. Many people are of the view that the problem with the Indian Army is a lack of a sense of belonging and viewing the Kashmiris as not being part of the country. As attitudes get hardened on both sides, the population too starts looking on the Army as ‘foreigners’, thus, contributing to the cycle of mistrust between the two. Many also feel that Army personnel from South India look upon Kashmir as a foreign country and question the need for their being deployed there. Some are of the view that the problem calls for a political solution and unless the same is found, the question of the presence of the Army becoming acceptable in Kashmir and in the Kashmiri speaking areas of the state does not arise.

The military, however, is also perceived by many in the Valley as defending Kashmir from external powers and as being successful in reducing cross-border infiltration. Opinions, however, vary from place to place and with different interest groups. Unlike in the early 1990s, the presence of the Army now receives support, primarily due to initiatives taken by its leadership over the last few years. Other factors include declining militancy, a yearning for peace, positive impact of Sadbhavana projects and the Army’s role in providing assistance in times of calamities. Many people now speak of “an evident change in the attitude of Army soldiers everywhere in the area”. 

The people from Jammu and Ladakh Divisions have vast differences in perception with their brethren in Kashmir. There are no separatist tendencies but intra-state conflicts of interest exist which require political resolution. Most are related to economic and development issues; the people here feel that the bulk of development funds go to the Kashmir region at their expense. 

Within the government, there is a feeling that Army actions undermine the authority of the civil administration. There is a feeling that the Army needs to be sensitised to the culture and mental landscape of the people who live there. There is also a feeling that CI/CT operations should increasingly be conducted by the CAPf and that the Army should be on the border only and should not administer or be seen to administer civilian areas. There is also a perception that hardline Muslim leaders in Kashmir are trying to ‘Islamise’ the state, and they view the Army’s role as necessary to maintain stability and fight against religious extremism. They consider the problem in Kashmir as having nothing to do with ‘Azadi’ but being essentially a movement towards rapid Islamisation of the state, killing in the process every semblance of ‘Kashmiriyat’. That the state has remained with India and still maintains a secular character is mainly because of the Army which should be facilitated to a greater extent in performing its duties in Kashmir. 

Army personnel generally have a very high sense of ‘self-image’ and of working for the ‘country’. They believe that barring some aberrations, most personnel are conscious of their constitutional responsibilities while combating terrorism and insurgency and take care to see that the human rights of the local people are respected. Winning Hearts and Minds (WHAM) is viewed positively as a factor which is essential for conflict resolution. The contemporary situation is encouraging and all stakeholders must provide the healing touch and commitment to vastly improve matters. While the Army perceives that it has achieved the military objective of constraining the militancy, it is less sanguine about the political processes, which it feels have not capitalised on the military’s success or kept pace with it. 

Perceptions on Image Makeover 

It is apparent that a need exists for an image makeover, as far as the Armed Forces in J&K is concerned. It is important to always bear in mind the fact that when the Army is acting in Kashmir, it is not only perceived as the Army, but the ‘Indian Army’. All actions involving interactions with people are ascribed to India/Centre/Union and hence impact on the overall situation of the state. They must therefore be carefully conducted. What then must the State and the Army do, to have an image makeover? Ten points are given below, which if implemented could have a positive impact.

Firstly, the Army needs to be sensitive to, and understand the cultural and sociological aspects of the people they are tasked to protect. This will give the requisite human touch and improve relations considerably. Train of its soldiers on communication and inter-personal skills, especially those who come in contact with the public will go a long way in improving the Army’s image. . 

As the situation of the early nineties no longer exists, a reduced Army footprint would go a long way in improving relations and reducing hostility. Allied with this is the need to retain a separate identity. As of now, it is difficult to distinguish Army jawans from central armed police forces personnel, as they are dressed alike. The police forces must not wear military uniforms as it gives a wrong impression to the public. 

Thirdly, justice, against abuse of powers must not only be done but seen to be done to restore public confidence in the Army. Swift action must be taken against erring personnel and the same must be well publicised. The Army, as is well known, is swift in punishing defaulters, but for some reasons, its actions are not publicised. This must change as perceived injustice inflames the people and enables political forces to manipulate the youth, thus, fuelling the cycle of violence and counter-violence.

Fourthly, it is absolutely necessary to have good relations with the state bureaucracy. It will be useful to engage with the new ‘panches' and ‘sarpanches’, care being to see that such action is  not perceived as obtrusive by the civil administration. The bonhomie in civil-military relations, thus, visible, will go a long way in building a positive image. 

Sadbhavana has created goodwill for the Army, but has limited utility. In the words of the former  Chief Minister of J&K, Mr. Omar Abdullah,  “A lot of goodwill and rapport depends upon the actions of the local commanding officers and troops on the ground. Sadbhavana is a good project, but you put a good CO on the ground without Sadbhavana and he’ll show better results”. The importance of selecting the right COs for posting in such areas hence cannot be overstated. 

Sixthly, the Army needs to develop structures for peace building and be empathetic to the problems of a society brutalised by violence between the state and non-state actors. Gender sensitivity, with special measures to protect women and girls from gender-based violence will go a long way in nurturing confidence and trust in the local population.
Seventhly, the Army must learn to use the media as a force multiplier. It is important to not only speak the truth, but to be the first with the news so that a distorted picture does not emerge. It must be understood that perceptions once created are difficult to remove. First impressions are generally the ones which remain in the public consciousness and this fact must be understood. The Army must shed its reluctance and fear of the media and must also accept that all news may not be favourable as we have a free and robust media.

The state government needs to alter its approach to security and change the design of the stability system. It could look into ‘Stability units’ to build coherence between disparate elements of governance and public security, which could have both mediating and enabling qualities to link the public with governance. This inter alia could include security and public safety needs, delivery of socio-economic programmes and enabling public access to the justice system as well as security apparatus. 

Next, the civil administration in the state has to be strengthened. Once a civil administration which is accountable is in place, the Army’s role will reduce and this will pay political and peace dividends. The weakness in the delivery system is glaring and must be overcome. Lastly, the alienation dilemma must be solved. This could be done by establishing and institutionalising the dialogue process with civil society. As insurgency is now in remission, perhaps mediation groups could be established at the brigade level to inform communities on the role of the Army and its legal accountability procedures. This could also serve as a point for interaction to redress civilian grievances. Institutionalised dialogue among the state, the military, the public and conflict transformation experts in the public domain would be an important step in improving the image of the Army.

Prerequisites for a Perception Management Campaign
The role of the Army must remain confined to operational and tactical aspects only which will assist the Army in its operations against the insurgents. The image makeover of the Army should pertain to the force being perceived as the people’s Army – an Army which the local people can look up to.

Themes must be prepared and executed at the corps level and the end state required to be achieved for each target segment must be clearly enunciated. Themes would be different for the three divisions of J&K. Even within Kashmir, themes would have to target segments and not be uniform for all. Dissemination must be done through multiple means and must be continuous. It must be based on truth. Under no circumstances can anything be done which will hit at the credibility of the Army.


Capabilities too have to be real otherwise the projection of deterrence will not succeed. The strategic narrative must not be lost sight of while formulating a perception management campaign. The strategic narrative is focused on end term goal realisations while operational and tactical level narratives are more focused towards the immediacy of the conflict situation. While the tactical and operational level narratives are important, they must not run counter to the long term aims of the country. In future conflict, perception management will play an increasingly important role. The concept must hence be understood and should be coopted into all military plans.

LT GEN HANUT SINGH, PVSM, MVC: The Standard Bearer


On 10 April 2015, a legend of the Indian Army, Lt Gen Hanut Singh, PVSM, MVC, passed away. He was two months short of 83 years when he died, and was cremated three days later on the banks of the Ganges in Haridwar. The mainstream print media did write nostalgically of the legend, but the outpouring of eulogies on the social media from across the world, was indeed something only reserved for a very special few. What was it in the man that made it impossible to forget him even after he had shed the uniform for a quarter of a century and lived the life of a recluse?

Most people remember the Battle of Basantar in the 1971 War, when Hanut, then commanding the iconic Poona Horse, gave a crushing defeat to Pakistan’s mechanised forces, his regiment virtually decimating the enemy’s 8 Armoured Brigade. This was also the battle where a young officer of the Poona Horse, 2 Lt Arun Khetrapal became a byword for courage and honour, being posthumously awarded the nations highest gallantry award, the Param Vir Chakra. In his biography of General Hanut Singh, Major General VK Singh states that “Arun Khetarpal's act of supreme sacrifice was more than an act of personal courage, and valour. It was a manifestation of 'The Poona Horse Spirit', which Hanut had inculcated amongst his officers”. While that famous victory by itself was adequate to grant Hanut a permanent place in the pantheon of heroes, it could not by itself have led to such a cult following within the Armed Forces. There had to be that something extra, which distinguished him from the rest; something which made people remember the General, long after they were no longer in contact with him. 

Lt Gen Ajai Singh, who was Hanut’s Second in Command in Poona Horse during the 1971 War describes an incident which has remained deeply etched in his mind. When Ajai joined the Poona Horse on Commissioning in 1956, Hanut, then a Lieutenant and the Senior Subaltern met him for the first time. In Ajai’s words, “He met me with such enthusiasm, warmth and affection that I felt as though we had known each other for ages”. Hanut then took Ajai around the Squadron and introduced him to all members of the troop he was to take over. Having done this at the garages itself, he gave him a programme for his training which was to commence from the next day and also gave him a large bundle of books and prĂ©cis which he was to read in his own time. “I went through all this businesslike activity in a state of total shock,” said Ajai, “because till then, such a serious approach to professional matters had neither been seen nor heard during the few days I had spent in the Regiment”. At that time, Hanut had less than four years service, having been commissioned in December 1952. But even so, he exhibited a standard of professionalism at that young age and service, which was exceptional and rare, even for officers many years his senior in age and service. Later, his thoughts on armoured warfare were to become standard text for training in the military establishment and remain so till date.

His close friend, the former Maharaja of Kapurthala, Brigadier Sukhjit Singh, MVC, spoke of Hanut as “The standard bearer of a set of values that place him above mortals that I ever knew.” According to Lt Gen Surrinder Singh, a former  Army Commander of Northern Command, Hanut was “uncompromising in his beliefs and convictions…a man of sterling character combined with a forceful personality, he had no time for fools - a fact which was soon apparent to those in this category.” This is what characterised the General - total professionalism, integrity and courage of his convictions, that set him apart from the rest. General PK Singh, a former Army Commander, South Western Command and the present Director USI, succinctly summed up Hanut as “A tall military leader who inspired confidence amongst the professionals and fear amongst the others”!

Physical courage has never been a shortcoming in the Indian Army, but men with exceptional moral courage, especially at senior levels of command, remain a rare breed across the world. General Hanut was one of them. On professional matters he never compromised. Indeed, he never compromised on any matter at all. Many of his superiors felt that Hanut was too individualistic and did attempt to side line him. He was after all a loner who abhorred socialising, had no time for sycophancy and worse still, was intellectually far superior to those under whom he had to serve - a quality which certainly would not have endeared him to them. But there were others who appreciated his mastery over his profession and his vision. General Sundarji, who later became the Chief and General Inder Gill, who rose to Command the Western Army, both iconic Generals in their own ways, recognised his genius and integrity and appreciated his honesty of purpose, even when he differed with them on professional matters.

In many ways, the human side of General Hanut Singh, merged with the professional. Lt Gen Baljit Singh speaks of an incident in 1974, when Hanut was the Colonel GS of the Division and he was commanding a SP Artillery Regiment equipped with the ABBOT Field Gun. At that time, reminisces Baljit, 11 of the 18 Guns in his Regiment were declared "out of action” for want of replacements for the electric diode that activated the firing mechanism. This status prevailed for over a year as their was an embargo in the warranty clause that they could not use any derivatives and the spares had not been bid for in the contract. The regiment took the initiative of stripping the circuit and finding a replacement from the Bangalore electronic market for a mere Rs 20/- per piece. The guns were made functional and they all fired successfully in the Annual Practice Camp which was overseen by a Gunnery Instructor who reported that "All 18 guns fired to perfection on all ten days.” However, instructions had been violated and a Staff Court of Inquiry (COI) that was ordered, found Baljit guilty of procedural lapses and the Army Headquarters ordered the Division to initiate appropriate action. When Hanut saw that letter, he drove over to Baljit’s office to familiarise himself with the case. After having done so he spoke to the Divisional Commander who thereafter disagreed with the conclusion of the COI, recommended closure of the case and the Powers that be accepted the Bangalore manufactured derivatives as valid replacements. That too was the measure of General Hanut Singh. 

His concern for the men was legendary and he did everything in his power to make their life more comfortable, both in terms of giving them time to look after their own requirements and to aspects such as their accommodation, entitlements and training. A deeply religious man, his unimpeachable moral conduct was the product of his deep spirituality. He did not just set matchless standards of professionalism, probity and character; he lived them in his daily life. This continued post retirement too, extending right unto his final days, when he left his body and found union with the Creator, while in ‘Dhyan’ (meditation). His concept of a ‘soldier’s dharma’, was ‘righteous living’, a precept he unwaveringly followed. That he left his body while on meditation, speaks of the remarkable levels of spirituality attained by him. The legacy he leaves behind would be hard to emulate. As one of his admirers said, he was that rare breed of professionally competent senior officers, the like of which I have not met till date. What more can one say. He was truly a soldiers General, but more than that, he was a visionary and an original thinker. Not for him the trodden well beaten path, taken by so many others. His vision, his courage, his strength came from his own spirit - a spirit nurtured in ‘Dharma.’ And he had the strength of character to walk the path, even if that path was a lonely one.

In his poem ‘The Road not Taken’, Robert Frost ends with the famous lines…

Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.

General Hanut took the less travelled road. Hopefully, some at least in our Armed Forces will continue in that tradition. In that lies our strength - and our salvation.




Tuesday, July 7, 2015

AFSPA: WHY THE ACT IS REQUIRED


If there has been consistency over any one demand made by a section of civil society, academics and certain political parties over the years, it has been the demand to repeal the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA). Continuing protests against the provisions of AFSPA are a testimony to the fact that on this issue, the Army has not been able to project its viewpoint in the public domain. Many people across the country now perceive the Act as a draconian piece of legislation. To that extent, social and civil rights activists and a variety of NGOs and militant groups campaigning for its removal have been successful in shaping public opinion on this score. While this betrays a poor understanding of the security environment in which the armed forces operate as also ignorance about internal Army procedures in upholding the rights of individuals in the areas where the Act is operative, the fact remains that the Army has not been able to counter this perception. 
The issue has been debated from the standpoint of human rights with a great deal of emotion, and serious aspersions have been cast on the conduct of the security forces. Over time, the narrative has become one sided as the security forces lack a forum to express their concerns and challenges. Issues thus remain misunderstood, which further vitiates an already charged atmosphere. It is important to understand that in the Indian context, the Armed Forces do not have a say in the imposition of AFSPA. That is a decision that the political leadership has to take. Constitutionally, the Army does not have a mandate to operate in internal security duties. If it is required to do so, special constitutional provisions have to be made to permit such employment. 
The framers of the Indian Constitution, despite their brilliance and acumen, did not foresee an eventuality, where the nation’s armed forces would be used against their own people. This is understandable because in the euphoria of gaining Independence, few in India could have visualised the fissiparous tendencies that led to armed secessionist movements, and which required both force and political acumen to resolve. Many in  the Indian establishment at that time were under a mistaken belief that India had no enemies, so leave aside using the Armed Forces against internal actors, there was no necessity felt by luminaries such as J.L. Nehru, India’s first Prime Minister, for keeping an army at all! The Constitution of India was hence silent on the employment of the Armed Forces in internal security duties, because such a possibility at that time was perhaps too far fetched to fathom. However, such a necessity became painfully obvious when the civil administration expressed its helplessness to deal with the armed insurrection that erupted in Nagaland in 1958. The Centre thereafter acted swiftly, the President of India promulgating on 22 May 1958, the Armed Forces (Assam and Manipur) Special Powers Ordinance, 1958, which gave the Armed Forces the power to operate in the disturbed areas in the State of Assam and Union Territory of Manipur. Later the Ordinance was replaced by the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Bill, which received Presidential assent on 11 September 1958. It came on the Statute Book as THE ARMED FORCES (SPECIAL POWERS) ACT, 1958 (28 of 1958). It was later extended to Jammu and Kashmir as the Armed Forces (Jammu and Kashmir) Special Powers Act, 1990, on July 05, 1990. The Act initially covered areas in the Kashmir Division of the state. Subsequently, in August 2001, it was extended to the Jammu Division too.
The Act has six sections, the first giving out the short title and extent of the Act and the second defining various terms as to their meaning. Section 3 empowers the Constitutional head of any state to declare the whole or any part of the state to be a disturbed area. Only after such declaration can the Armed Forces be employed to deal with the situation. Section 4 of the Act grants enabling powers to the military, once an area has been declared as disturbed. This includes the use force if required against a person acting in contravention of the law, even to the extent of killing a person for the commission or suspicion of the commission of offences, the power to destroy any arms dump or fortified position from which armed attacks are being made or likely to be made and the power of search and arrest without a warrant. Section 5 provides for an arrested person to be handed over to the police with the least possible delay. Section 6 provides protection to persons in respect of anything done or purported to be done in exercise of the powers conferred by the Act.
Activists agitate against the provisions of Sections 4 and 6, believing them to be too harsh and open to misuse and demand that the provisions be withdrawn or made less stringent. The Army views the Act as enabling, without which they will be unable to perform in the highly volatile and violence prone situation prevailing in the areas they have been tasked to operate. Evidently, if the situation is so out of control that the local police forces and the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) are unable to deal with it, then the situation is an extraordinary one, requiring additional powers. This lies at the heart of the debate. 
In the wake of the intense agitation launched by various civil society groups in Manipur following the death of Kr. Th. Manorama Devi in July 2004 and the earlier indefinite fast undertaken by Ms. Irom Sharmila since November 2000 demanding repeal of the AFSPA, a 5-Member Committee under the Chairmanship of Justice B.P. Jeevan Reddy, former Judge of the Supreme Court was set up to advise the Government whether the Act needed to be amended, to bring its provisions in consonance with the obligations of the Government towards protection of Human Rights or to replace the Act by a more humane Act. The findings of the committee have not been placed in the public domain. The Act has however been subjected to legal scrutiny and has been upheld by a 5-judge constitutional bench of the Supreme Court. The apex court also extended the scope of powers to include the power to interrogate persons arrested and retain custody of weapons seized.
It is important to understand that the Army operates on the direction of the political authority. The onus for deploying the Army hence lies on the Centre and not on the Army. Declaring an area as ‘disturbed’ is also not an arbitrary decision by the state government, but follows from a complete breakdown of the state machinery due to the hostile activities of insurgents, militants or terrorists. The Army is thus called in as the last option and the consequences of failure could well mean the disintegration of the state. If the Army is not enabled to carry out its task, then the result could be failure with serious consequences.
A cursory glance at the violence levels existing in J&K since 1988 is instructive. In just under three decades of violence, over 22,800 terrorists have been killed, with the security forces suffering over 6150 casualties. Civilian deaths due to violence are about 14,700. That the movement has continued for so long points to the devious role played by external actors in giving support to terrorist groups. The roots go back to the policy enunciated by Z.A. Bhutto in the eighties to ‘bleed India with a thousand cuts’. The Pakistani state continues with its rabid support to terror groups such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) and the like which they view as their ‘strategic assets’. Such groups are trained, financed and equipped by Pakistan to carry out violent activities to ‘keep the pot boiling’ in J&K. Casualties suffered by such groups are made up by infiltrating the required number of terrorists across the border. While a check has been imposed on infiltration and the strength of resident terrorists has decreased substantially, the problems in the state are by no means over. Violence levels have reduced in the state but the security environment is still not conducive as the casualty figures for the five year period 2010-2014 show:
                                       

A glance at the weapons, ammunition and explosives apprehended since insurgency began in the state in the late eighties, indicates that the environment of operations for the security forces is much akin to war (See Table 1). What the Army is dealing with is state sponsored terrorism, much akin to sub conventional conflict. Let us examine one by one, the angst of activists against AFSPA. These pertain to sections 4,5 and 6 of the Act.     
                                 

Activists state that the power to kill and to search and arrest without a warrant opens up the possibility to their misuse. While the power exists in the statute, in its application there is strict control. No search or arrest is made randomly, each being done based on specific inputs. Just because such powers are available, does not mean that troops can enter any house or arrest any person at will. The fluid nature of operations in terrorist and insurgent infected areas, however, makes it essential for the armed forces to have this power, else the terrorist will get away every time. It must be remembered that the Army is deployed largely in remote areas, many of which have the most rudimentary of amenities if any. Search and Arrest warrants are for normal police time crime control and not for combatting highly organised and trained terrorist groups armed and equipped with the latest weaponry and communication devices.
The power to open fire is also judiciously used, Army troops engaged in operations rarely being the first to open fire. That is the reason why the casualty rate of officers in such operations is exceptionally high as they lead from the front and the terrorist invariably has the first opportunity to fire. Once a fire fight erupts, there could be collateral damage, as terrorists and insurgents deliberately initiate conflict in built up areas or in close proximity to the civil population. While terrorists have no compunctions in killing or injuring innocent civilians, the Indian Army remains very sensitive to such occurrences and seeks to avoid them to the extent possible. Such sensitivity is not displayed by foreign armies, as seen in the brutal handling of such operations by the Pakistan Army in Baluchistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA where air power and artillery has been indiscriminately used to destroy entire villages and townships, leading to heavy loss of civilian life, and millions of internally displaced persons. Even the U.S. and British forces, the pillars of Western democracy, routinely use missiles and air power to destroy what they believe to be terrorist hideouts. The hundreds of women and children killed in such engagements in Afghanistan and the Levant is conveniently put across as collateral damage. The Indian Army on the other hand has kept its operations confined to the use of weapons at the platoon level and has been very sensitive in ensuring that collateral damage either does not occur or is restricted to the bare minimum. Individuals do not flee their homes during Army actions. On the contrary, the presence of the Armed Forces in disturbed areas provides a sense of security to the public at large and not a sense of fear.
Activists also vent their ire on Section 6 of the Act, which grants legal immunity to the forces against prosecution. What is not appreciated is that it is part of the operating methodology of terrorists and insurgents to deluge the security forces with false cases to hinder their ability to operate. Statistics from the National Human Rights Commission (Table 2), clearly indicate that most complaints are motivated and designed to malign the Armed Forces. Troops across the world require legal protection against prosecution for acts done in good faith in such high intensity operations. Without immunity from future prosecution, troops will cease to operate in such areas fearing legal action. This will lead to a resurgence in insurgency, causing the people greater misery and  hardships and could over time lead to the break up of the state.


Today, countries across the globe are going in for more stringent laws in their effort to tackle the cancer of terrorism. AFSPA has to be seen in the light of current day realities and not in an isolated prism. The debate on AFSPA also needs to follow a different narrative. AFSPA can no longer be discussed in terms of the Act being  ‘good’ or ‘bad’. The central issue is whether the Act is essential. In disturbed environments, the issue often gets deflected from real causes to imaginary ones. AFSPA is not the cause of the problem. That lies in the failure of the political and administrative processes to meet the aspirations of the people. A prominent academic gave forth the view that as AFSPA has not succeeded in bringing peace to the Northeast and to J&K, it should be scrapped. That was being too clever by half. On a similar yardstick, we could well ask for the scrapping of the political and administrative machinery of the state for failing to deliver. Be that as it may, the security forces have delivered time and again on stabilising the state to permit other initiatives to flourish and take root. The onus for building peace now lies on other actors.   

Monday, October 26, 2009

Comments on internet forward...Two Travelling Angels.

The story throws up interesting questions. Firstly, why should angels meddle in the affairs of humans? If we assume that angels do exist and that they have supernatural powers, are they supposed to exercise those powers in pursuit of what they consider to be good and correct behaviour? Are people to be punished for every misdemeanor and rewarded for every good deed done?
In the instant story, why have the angels taken offence to not being treated well by a rich man? Could not the family have been having a bad day? Were they inherently evil? Do you punish every person likewise or do you leave it to the whims and fancies of passing angels?
I personally think the actions of the angels were rather strange. By hiding the gold, the rich man lost nothing. As he was not aware of the hidden gold, its theoretical loss is of no concern. But more importantly, it was the supposedly good poor man who was hit hardest for doing good. Why was his cow killed in lieu of his wife? Why not a stray dog or mouse? And what prevented the angel from shifting the gold from the rich man’s basement to the poor man’s hut? The tale is a lot of poppycock, if you ask me.
Perhaps this is an attempt to keep the poor in their place by insinuating that their lot has been pre ordained. An old Christian Hymn brings this out rather forcefully… ( From the Hymn ‘All things Bright and Beautiful’).
The rich man in his castle
The poor man at his gate
He made them high and lowly
Each to his own estate.

It serves the interest of certain classes to see that the current social order is perpetuated, much like the caste system in India. But things will change, despite the attempts by some to rope in the angels on their side. And yes, things aren’t always what they seem.



Two traveling angels
Two traveling angels stopped to spend the night in the home of a wealthy family. The family was rude and refused to let the angels stay in the mansion's guest room. Instead the angels were given a small space in the cold basement. As they made their bed on the hard floor, the older angel saw a hole in the wall and repaired it. When the younger angel asked why, the older angel replied, 'Things aren't always what they seem.'
The next night the pair came to rest at the house of a very poor, but very hospitable farmer and his wife. After sharing what little food they had the couple let the angels sleep in their bed where they could have a good night’s rest. When the sun came up the next morning the angels found the farmer and his wife in tears. Their only cow, whose milk had been their sole income, lay dead in the field.
The younger angel was infuriated and asked the older angel how could you have let this happen? The first man had everything, yet you helped him, she accused. The second family had little but was willing to share everything, and you let the cow die.
'Things aren't always what they seem,' the older angel replied. 'When we stayed in the basement of the mansion, I noticed there was gold stored in that hole in the wall... Since the owner was so obsessed with greed and unwilling to share his good fortune, I sealed the wall so he wouldn't find it. Then last night as we slept in the farmer’s bed, the angel of death came for his wife. I gave him the cow instead.
Things aren’t always what they seem.'
[][]

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Callous Times of India

I append below an interesting mail I received from one of my friends. I am quite inured to the insensitivity shown by the press and others on some of the issues which are important to the Armed Forces. However, this issue shows utter callousness on the part of the Times of India. Headlining a war memorial ceremony as “Blowing Your Trumpet’, is an insult not only to the Armed Forces but to the people of this country. I wonder how the concerned editors allowed this to go through. And if it was a genuine mistake, why is the paper so chary of publishing an apology? While the incident took place a few months ago, I think it needs to be highlighted. Knowledge is a weapon too.


To,
The Editor
The Times of India (Delhi Edition)

Sir,

The Times of India on July 6, 2009 carried a photograph of Indian Army band performing at Drass War Memorial to mark ten years of the capture of Tiger Hill by the Indian Army during Kargil War. This ceremony like any other function of similar nature reminds the countrymen of the supreme sacrifices made and hardships undergone by the soldiers who fought in a particular battle or operation. It is a very
solemn occasion evocative of the unrivalled gallantry, patriotism, professional competence, discipline and spirit of comradeship displayed by the officers and jawans of the Armed Forces while defending the country's borders, its integrity, honour and pride. It epitomises the ultimate in commitment and sense of duty.

However, the words "BLOWING THEIR TRUMPET" in red block capitals under the photograph of the Army band performing at the War Memorial trivialises the ceremony--it is morbidly derisive, demonically insensitive and insidiously mocking. Overall, in a very bad taste.

Use of such a phrase on your part has greatly disturbed and anguished the serving military personnel and lakhs of veterans. There are many amongst us who have lost a near and dear one, a friend, a colleague, a relation or an acquaintance in the Kargil War. (The country too has lost gallant heroes who will never come back home.) Many veterans, their comrades-in- arms and others have sent letters to you to protest against the utter insensitivity and callousness shown by The Times of India towards the Armed Forces personnel of the country.

In this context particular mention may be made of the letter (copy appended below) sent to you by Lt Gen S K Bahri on July 6. However, this letter too like many others has not been carried in The Times of India. One wonders why. This in spite of the fact that the letter eminently meets all the parameters: it is well written, cogent, concise, polite and specifically relates to the material published in your newspaper.

In The Times of India, there has been continued and consistent black-out of events/news highlighting the legitimate achievements of the Armed Forces or presenting their version of the story even as you go out of the way to display in bold capital headlines any real or perceived omissions or errors on their part. We frequently come across write-ups, cartoons etc. in a manner calculated to ridicule the military personnel or project them in a dubious light.
Be it Army/Navy/Air Force Day or a military exercise/show/ celebration; an ex-Servicemen' s rally or relief/assistance rendered during man-made/natural calamity; President of India's visit/address to the Armed Forces officers/jawans or a Passing out Parade in any of the Defence academies; India's Vice-President' s unveiling of a martyr's statue or Defence Investiture Ceremony presided over by the President of India in Delhi; presentation of colours to a unit or any of the Chiefs' press conference-- these events and many others are mostly ignored by The Times of India.
(Some of the above-mentioned instances have been brought to your notice from time to time over the past three-and-a- half years and would be available in your archives. Should you, however, so desire we can send copies of these communications to you again for your ready reference.) Your browser may not
support display of this image.
All this in spite of the fact that a statement has duly been made on your behalf that your newspaper (to quote the exact words) "has always kept the armed forces in high esteem and has always highlighted the gallantry work of our soldiers with pride ... has great deal of respect for the Armed forces of the country ... has always respected and saluted the spirit and sacrifice of armed forces for our country ... "
What a sham!
We can go on and on ... but we must stop here for now. Just a thing or two before we sign off:
Sitting in an ivory tower, Sir, you keep on pontifically advising every Tom,Dick and Harry--also every Jane, Jennifer and Josephine--about what to do and what not to do. Only day before you had in an editorial advised the political class in India "to take a cue" from the President of another country for solving problems. Wow!
Collaterally, may we also make bold, Sir, to suggest to you to look inwards and "take a cue" from the media in other countries. But then if you do so, how will your newspaper be able to accommodate a host of sex-related stories, scandals, errant behaviour and nude photographs as is the recurring feature at present?

It is nauseating to see certain pictures and stories in your newspaper. It happens routinely. Even yesterday, on the front page there is the "enlightening" story and sketch of a woman who had got stone-drunk at a party ... not knowing what happened to her subsequently ... then taking pills ... and bleeding in spite of them ... going and seeing the doctor ...
Shucks!
How remarkable a scenario and how superb the performance of the lady! But, above all, the credit for making this incident unique and blown out of all proportions should go to you and you alone. There are "juicy" anecdotes galore of this nature along with candid pictures from other countries, especially from the West, reported almost daily in The Times of India. Your browser may not support display of this image.
Yet, there is no space for a letter from a Lt General, a very respected and senior veteran of Indian Army, in your newspaper!
How shameful! What a servile mindset is being displayed by The Times of India!! Are we a vassal state?
Perhaps there are more serious issues involved here than considerations of just space or money. Right?
And look at the space--half a page and more--the reputed newspapers abroad allot for readers' views. That is real active democracy about which you never tire of lecturing others from rooftops but feel most diffident and chary to adhere to yourself in spite of your periodic hypes and campaigns and claims of largest circulation of English newspapers in the world. The proof of the pudding is in the eating, Sir.
In case it is found not feasible for you to carry Lt Gen S K Bahri's letter in The Times of India and/or offer an apology during the next few days, we the veterans, our comrades-in- arms and others may, in our discretion, consider taking recourse to a line of action as deemed appropriate for redress of the deep hurt caused, injustice done and insult inflicted on the Armed Forces fraternity and citizens at large because of the abrasive uncalled-for comments made by your newspaper in contravention of the laid down norms of journalistic ethics and propriety.
Why are you feeling so jittery, Sir? Is the armour of your reputation and high-profile status so fragile? Why are you so miserably lacking in confidence and courage, unable to confront an odd--and justifiable- -barb from a short solitary letter from one of your readers? Your helplessness is as pitiable as it is perplexing!

Lastly, a word of advice, caution or request--call it whatever you will: Please desist from denigrating or caricaturing Armed Forces and their personnel, serving or retired. It does not behove you--and we do not like it.

Do give us a chance to continue respecting you.

Warm regards. And, have a nice day, Sir....
Sincerely,
SC Kapoor
Wing Commander (retd)
E-145, Sector 21
Noida-201 301
Mob: 9810515424

From: Satish Kumar Bahri
Subject: BLOWING THEIR TRUMPET
To: "Times Of India"
Date: Monday, 6 July, 2009, 9:24 AM
Dear Sir,

I refer to the distasteful caption given to a photograph of Army bagpipers playing at the Drass War Memorial on the 10th anniversary of the Kargil war. I believe your caption writer either is bereft of any knowledge of the English language or does not know the difference between a War Memorial or his elbow. Would request an apology be published post haste clarifying the meaning of "Blowing Their Trumpet" and homage being paid at a War Memorial which commemorates the heroes who have sacrificed their lives for the Nation. I would also like Capital letters to be used when you refer to a specific monument like the Drass War Memorial. Good English you know.......

Satish
Lt Gen SK Bahri (Retd)
E 403 Som Vihar Apts, RK Puram
New Delhi 110022 - India
Tele +91 11 26102171, Mob +91 981000 2800

Monday, August 17, 2009

Growing Internal Instability: Will China Divert Externally?

China's historic shift from centrally planned to market economy has made it the manufacturing centre of the world. This has however come at the cost of a widening development gap between urban and rural areas and between coastal regions and inland/frontier areas. Many people in China have also lost the assurance of a lifetime job and the social safety-nets that they enjoyed a generation ago. Opening the economy, creating new labour-market mechanisms, and encouraging internal-migration flows have also impacted on China’s peripheral regions such as Xinjiang, TAR and elsewhere.

Impact of Global Recession

As the Chinese economy is closely integrated with the global economy, it cannot be insulated from global recessionary trends. Today, close to 40 per cent of Chinese GDP comes from exports and it is this segment which has been hit hardest by global recession. Lack of domestic demand for goods being exported has perforce led to a cutback in production which has further translated into job losses. China already had a huge unemployment problem with 120 million unemployed on a continuous basis. To this has now been added an additional 20 million newly unemployed due to the global financial crisis and its resulting closed factories. Add another 6 million new graduates into the work force (2008-2009) and we get a sense of the magnitude of the problem China is faced with.


To combat recession, China has relied mainly on the Monetary Expansion route to tackle the economic crisis. Two major measures undertaken in this regard are: -
• RMB 4 trillion (USD 585 billion) has been pumped into the economy in a stimulus package, to be deployed over two years in a bid to stimulate demand within the Chinese economy.
• RMB 5 trillion (USD 731 billion) worth of loans given by Chinese state owned banks to people and to businesses both large and small.

Impact of Chinese Monetary Policy

The stimulus package makes the Chinese economy look bullish as so much money has been spent in just 6 months. All analysts are therefore saying that China is booming again. This however may not be true as the effects of the stimulus package are at best temporary. Sooner or later market fundamentals will come into play and then we will see a different picture emerge. Some facts which need to be considered are: -
• Loans given by state owned banks have been utilised by many borrowers in stock trading investment. An amount in excess of $170 billion has gone into the stock market with a staggering 480,000 share trading accounts being opened by the week ending 20 February.
• In addition, the Chinese government is giving a 5 per cent grant to every person buying a car and a 20 per cent grant to anyone buying an electronic product; such subsidies are not sustainable.

• China saw a Net Capital flight of $240 billion in Q4 2008. This, in conjunction with the data on bank lending indicates that the communist regime in Beijing is having major problems in handling China's economy. What explains the positive numbers presently coming out of China is only the impact of the stimulus package. While this will cause a temporary rise in the rate of GDP growth for the current quarter, it would be wrong to annualise it. Perhaps the quarter ending June 2009 was the last good quarter and the downslide may very well start now.

There is so much money floating around (Close to $800 billion with ordinary people, with an additional over $170 billion having gone into the stock market), that China will soon have a huge inflation problem unless they tighten up their monetary policy and suck the liquidity out of the system before they lose all control over prices. If they lose control over prices and if they have runaway inflation in the middle of the winter (October 2009 - March 2010) then it could create huge law and order problems all over China.


The Oil Factor

Oil data coming out of China looks bullish. Demand has increased from a low of 6.07 mbpd in January 2009 to 7.7 mbpd in May 09. This huge increase of 1.6 Mbpd has not been used for Chinese Phase I strategic storage, which at 102 million bbls was declared totally full in Q4 2008. Also, Phase II of Chinese strategic storage at 170 million bbls has not yet been built. This indicates that the oil has actually been run in the two new Chinese refineries. Further, if stock building has taken place, it has been on the products side in commercial and other storage downstream of the refineries.


The question to be asked now is this: Why has Chinese oil demand increased from a low of 6.07 Mbpd in Jan 09 to 7.7 Mbpd in May 2009? The world oil prices by current indicators are not going to witness an upward spiral in the short term so obviously this increase in demand has not been generated due to an anticipated surge in world oil prices. So, if rising refinery runs in China in the midst of growing financial chaos are not indicative of the Chinese economy bottoming out, what is the diesel, gasoline and jet fuel produced in the refineries being used for? Is stocking taking place for an anticipated military operation?


Prognosis

The Chinese export-led market economy has taken a hit due to worldwide recession. As world markets are unlikely to stabilise in the short term, the spectre of massive unemployment due to loss of exports will only tend to further exacerbate the situation. Bank investments going into the stock market and large cash outflows will lead to inflationary pressures which are likely to come to the fore before the end of the year. Massive unemployment coupled with rising inflation is likely to cause serious disturbances initially in the coastal region and subsequently in other parts of the country. We can hence summarise the current internal situation in China as one being fraught with grave risks. We may yet see a repeat of Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 with the difference that the fires may not be so easy to quench this time. And this is likely to further inflame the fires of Lhasa and Urumqi. What may happen there is still an open question, but would need a careful watch.

We also need to keep a very close watch on the oil consumption pattern in China. The reason for rising oil refinery runs in the midst of global recession need to be determined as the possibility that the oil in question is being used to build up resources for a military conflict cannot be ruled out. China’s communist regime, anticipating worsening of the economic crisis leading to widespread riots in the coastal region may spark off a military adventure somewhere to retain its hold on the levers of power and deflect attention from its internal crises. While a major military conflict over the Himalayas is not something which will benefit China, a limited incursion in its contested areas may well be on the cards. Or is the contest likely to take place on the high seas? Time will tell, but it would be wise to be prepared.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Allah or Christ. (Response to a chain email)

Sometimes, people spew venom and fabricate falsehood in the name of God. The instant chain email which is circulating around the globe is an excellent example of how some persons with a ‘holier than thou’ attitude are giving vent to their repressed fears through presentation of falsehood.

I count myself as one who is firmly against terrorism and the Islamic variety which is present is especially repugnant. But it is no more repugnant than the killings which have taken place over the centuries in the name of God or otherwise. A quick recap of some of horrific killings and murders of the last century is given below, and we have not counted Hiroshima and Nagasaki!

· Communist Russia. 20 million.

· Communist China 70 million.

· Japan (WW II) 12 million Chinese civilians.

· Idi Amin 300,000.

· Khmer Rouge (Cambodia) 1.5 million out of a population of 7.1 million.

· Rwanda (Hutu & Tutsi) 1 million (20% of the population)

· Darfur 800,000. (This century)

Now if we tally all the killings by all the Muslim terrorists, it won’t notch up to any of the figures above, Jihad or no Jihad.

The email in question originated in the United States (NOT Britain) by Rick Mathes, of the Mission Gates Prison Ministry. The aim of this ministry is:

· To lead prisoners to a saving knowledge of Christ, to confess Him as Savior and to live their lives under His Lordship.

· To disciple them in Christian living that does not shame our Lord.

· Help them return to society as members of the evangelical church of their choice. They return to "the hood" and when people get to know them, they get to know Jesus.

Here we have an evangelical preacher whose sole mission is conversion. Obviously, he stands in opposition to Islam which is another proselytizing religion. He could not get an Imam, so one of the prison inmates who was performing religious rites as best he could for the inmates was taken as the Imam and his view has been propagated as that of all Muslims all across the globe. Even the Pope does not speak for all the Christians! And Islam has so many sects with varying beliefs, traditions and interpretations of scriptures. No one Muslim can hence speak for what all of Islam believes, leave alone someone who is not even a cleric. Imagine the views of P Muthalik being taken as the view of all Hindus!

Regarding changing the demography of Britain in 20 years, even if all Muslim women of child bearing age in Britain give birth to a child every year, for the next 20 years, such an outcome will not take place. Simple math! That’s all. (This para was not part of Rick Mathes’s email)

Finally, let us say an uneducated Christian layman was taken as a Christian priest and put in contention against learned holy men from other faiths. I wonder how he would respond to what is written in the Bible (Old Testament)… God kills 70,000 innocent people because David ordered a census of the people (1Chronicles 210)…. He orders the killing of all the men, women, and children of each city, and the looting of all of value (Deuteronomy)…. killing of “all the living creatures of the city: men and women, young, and old, as well as oxen, sheep, and asses” (Joshua 6)…. murder of all the people of Jabesh-gilead, except for the virgin girls who were taken to be forcibly raped and married (Judges 21). When they wanted more virgins, God told them to hide alongside the road and when they saw a girl they liked, kidnap her and forcibly rape her and make her your wife! The God of the Bible also allows slavery, including selling your own daughter as a sex slave (Exodus 21:1-11), child abuse (Judges11:29-40 and Isaiah 13:16), and bashing babies against rocks (Hosea 13:16 & Psalms 137:9). The last one of course has also been made into the great hit song ‘By the Rivers of Babylon” by Boney M.

What we really need to do is to stand up against all injustice and not only of the Islamic variety. The key perhaps is acceptance of our differences, especially in religious belief. As the Lord says in the Srimad Bhagawad Gita....’Worship Me in any form, and I will reveal Myself to My devotee in that form’.

Chain email:

Infidel or Non Believer.

Allah or the Lord Jesus Christ? The Muslim religion is by far the fastest growing religion in the UK.
Last month I attended my annual training session that's required for maintaining my prison security clearance. During the training session there was a presentation by three speakers representing the Roman Catholic, Protestant and Muslim faiths, who explained each of their beliefs. I was particularly interested in what the Islamic Imam had to say. The Imam gave a great presentation of the basics of Islam, complete with a video. After the presentations, time was provided for questions and answers.

When it was my turn, I directed my question to the Imam and asked: 'Please, correct me if I'm wrong, but I understand that most Imams and clerics of Islam have declared a holy jihad [Holy war] against the infidels of the world and, that by killing an infidel, (which is a command to all Muslims) they are assured of a place in heaven. If that's the case, can you give me the definition of an infidel?'

There was no disagreement with my statements and, without hesitation, he replied, 'Non-believers!

I responded, 'so, let me make sure I have this straight. All followers of Allah have been commanded to kill everyone who is not of your faith so they can have a place in heaven. Is that correct?'

The expression on his face changed from one of authority and command to that of 'a little boy who had just been caught with his hand in the cookie jar.' He sheepishly replied, 'Yes.'

I then stated, 'Well, I have a real problem trying to imagine Pope Benedict commanding all Catholics to kill those of your faith or Dr. Stanley ordering all Protestants to do the same in order to guarantee them a place in heaven!'
The Imam was speechless!

I continued, 'I also have a problem with being your 'friend' when you and your brother clerics are telling your followers to kill me! Let me ask you a question. Would you rather have your Allah, who tells you to kill me in order for you to go to heaven, or my Jesus who tells me to love you because I am going to heaven and He wants you to be there with me?'

You could have heard a pin drop as the Imam remained speechless. Needless to say, the organizers and promoters of the 'Diversification' training seminar were not happy with this way of dealing with the Islamic Imam and exposing the truth about the Muslims' beliefs.

Within twenty years there will be enough Muslim voters in the U.K. to elect a government of their choice, complete with Sharia law.

I think everyone in the U.K. should be required to read this, but with the Liberal justice system, liberal media and political correctness madness, there is no way this will be widely publicised.

This incident happened in London