OF BLACK SWANS AND GREY RHINOS

Asia is a veritable cauldron of conflict. While the Af-Pak region continues to remain the epicentre of terrorism, conflict in the Gulf now has increasingly worrying dimensions. Besides the Af-Pak region, South Asia appears more stable, but random acts of Islamic terrorism occasionally come to the fore, as in the case of the Easter bombings in Sri Lanka. In India, the overall security environment remains stable, with violence levels in the Northeastern region as also areas impacted by Left Wing Extremism dipping considerably. Kashmir appears stable after the abrogation of Article 35A and of some provisions of Article 370.

Within the ASEAN countries, the Islamic State (Daesh) has made limited inroads into Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. Terror groups are increasingly decentralised, use sleeper cells and resort to lone wolf attacks. The process of recruitment makes use of the social media and other forms of advanced technology, in what may be termed as “third generation threats”. Further East, China continues to deal with its Uighur Muslim population in Xinjiang in a high handed fashion which may invite a future blowback. Tibet too is restive, though both Xinjiang and Tibet are relatively stable as of now. China is also facing mass protests in Hong Kong over some of its policies.

The above violence levels are localised and are being contained by the respective governments. However, of deep concern is the happenings in the Gulf, especially in respect of targeting of oil facilities. The war in Yemen has been ongoing for a few years now, with the Saudi coalition forces trying to dislodge the Houthis who are backed by Iran. If the situation gets out of hand, it could lead to regional instability with the supply of oil becoming the critical determinant. The Saudi oil facilities were attacked by the Houthis (as claimed by them, though evidently, the Houthis would have been supported by an external power). The attack crippled Saudi oil supply by 50 percent for over a month till the supply was eventually restored. The ferocity, suddenness and pin point accuracy of the attack led many to call it a Black Swan event, but a cursory analysis points otherwise. Over the past two years, the Houthis have carried out over 18 attacks on Saudi facilities and so an attack on Aramco should not have come as a surprise. It was thus a Grey Rhino event—one that could have been foreseen but was ignored.

The danger signals are now all around us. Besides the attack on Aramco, ships carrying oil have also been targeted While regional conflicts can be contained, a conflict which results in the antagonists attacking each others oil facilities could be disastrous, especially if it leads to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. That would be disastrous for the Asian economies, especially for India and could spell the end of the much heralded Asian century.

(India Foundation Journal: Nov-Dec 2019)

INDIA BEYOND 2020: A PERIOD OF RENAISSANCE

The 2019 elections held in India from 11 April to 19 May 2019 were perhaps the largest democratic exercise in human history ever witnessed. Over a million polling booths were set up to enable over 800 million voters to cast their vote. In the fray were over 8000 contestants, belonging to some 1841 recognised political parties, fighting for 543 parliamentary seats. But the election was not merely a matter of statistics: it was perhaps the most defining election in India’s post independence history, setting the stage for what India wished to be in the 21^st century. Would the ancient wounded civilisation, colonised and vandalised for over a millennia, seek to rediscover itself and embrace its heritage? After all, India is perhaps the only civilisation that has survived the ravages of time. Or would India continue to be in a state of denial about its true potential, and remain unmindful of its rich heritage, ethos and culture? The results of the mandate were clear. The battle was for the soul of India and the electorate, in one voice, voted to preserve its soul.

The cultural invasion of India has been ongoing for over a thousand years, and there are still many in India who seek to perpetuate that form of subjugation. Just over two centuries ago, a group of very influential people, including the Governor General of India, Lord William Bentinck wanted to wipe out all traces of Indian civilisation, which they considered as barbaric. This was opposed by Lt Col James Todd, the celebrated author of ‘Annals of Rajasthan,’ who was the adviser to the Board of Directors of the East India Company on matters concerning India and who considered India to be the original source of all knowledge, languages and philosophy of all Europe. He was of the view that preserving such a  heritage was in the best interests of not just India, but also for the rest of the world.

In the hearings held by the British Parliament, while Todd made a strong case for India, his opponent, James Mills, author of History of British India, espoused the cause of proselytisation, and pitched for the whole of India to be taken over by the East India Company, the population converted and put to work as semi-slaves for England and John Company. The British government went with the arguments of Mills, but this resulted in great disaffection amongst the Indian population which consequently led to the First War of Independence in 1857 and forced the British government to change its stance. India came directly under the crown, but the cultural invasion continued, albeit with a greater degree of sophistication and finesse, the impact of which is still seen, seven decades after Independence. The heirs of Macaulay and Mills tragically continue to live in our midst, and their narrative forms the dominant discourse in the country.

But the cultural invasion of India had begun much earlier, with Arab hordes invading India in the 8^th century. In one such invasion in 712 CE, Mohammed bin Qasim invaded Sindh, defeating the local ruler Raja Dahir, who died on the battlefield for his people. Tragically, his daughters were taken as sex slaves for the Umayyad rulers and the land was pillaged and plundered. Despite that, it is Qasim who is revered today in Pakistan as the first Pakistani while the Raja who fought for the honour of his people lies forgotten. This is a classic example of one culture subsuming another. The Arab hordes, whenever they plundered the Indian land mass, desecrated the temples, killed the priests and destroyed all institutions of learning. Nalanda is witness to what such destruction entails as are the thousands of ransacked temples and monuments all across India. That the Indian civilisational structure survived is testimony to its strength and vibrancy. But a thousand plus years of subjugation has dented the psyche of a proud people, many of whom still suffer from the Stockholm syndrome and seek to justify the acts of the perpetrators of violence, as being the customs of those times. While India has shed its chains which physically kept the country under subjugation, the mental chains still hold the country captive. These need to be broken as the spirit of India seeks rejuvenation.

When we look at India beyond 2020, we see a proud people who can no longer be held hostage to ideologies that seek to demean its culture, its heritage and indeed its very way of life. The process of rejuvenating the Indian mind began in 2014 with a change in government. This process is seeing a continuum, post the 2019 elections, which were a clearer indication that the people of India wished to reclaim their heritage that had been pillaged and falsified over the last millennia. The new India has thrown a challenge to the ideologues who falsified Indian history and spared no pains to denigrate its heritage and culture. A new and assertive India seeks to respect its long held and sacred beliefs, which transcend religious barriers. The legacy of Macaulay and his ilk, so faithfully propagated even post independence by a set of ideologues who held control of the education system and who when in power, corrupted and distorted its history is under challenge. But as these ideologues still continue to occupy positions of power and pelf, whether in India’s bureaucracy, the media, the corporate sector, the social circles and even in the  political space, there is resistance to the emergence of alternate ideas.

India beyond 2020 is a nation which is moving to find its soul—a nation accepting and embracing its scriptures, its heritage and its traditions, not partially but in full measure and with pride. In that acceptance, lies its salvation. And in that acceptance, India will emerge yet again as a leading power in the world stage, a nation imbued with deep roots, ready to meet its destiny.

For Pentagon Press.

ELECTIONS 2019: BATTLE FOR THE SOUL OF INDIA

On 10 March 2019, India’s Chief Election Commissioner Sunil Arora announced the much awaited poll dates for elections to the 17th Lok Sabha, in seven phases from 11 April to 19 May. With this, the model code of conduct came into force and the biggest democratic exercise of the world was set in motion. Over the next few weeks, India will see the setting up of over one million polling stations, to enable over 800 million voters to cast their vote to elect the next government. Electronic voting machines will be used in all the polling booths, each of which will have a voter verifiable paper audit trail (VVPAT) to obviate charges of rigging. More than 8,000 contestants will fight for 543 seats. An estimated 1,841 political parties recognised by the Election Commission will contest the polls, which are estimated to cost an unprecedented Rs 500 billion (approx. USD 7 billion, as per estimates of the Centre for Media Studies, New Delhi). Democracy, obviously, does not come cheap.

But this election is more than a matter of mere statistics. In many ways, Election 2019 will be the most defining election for India since the country achieved Independence in 1947. This is an election which will set the course for what India chooses to be. Will the ancient wounded civilisation, colonised and vandalised for over a millennia, seek to rediscover itself and embrace its heritage? After all, India is perhaps the only civilisation that has survived the ravages of time. Or will India continue to be in a state of denial about its true potential, and remain unmindful of its rich heritage, ethos and culture? Election 2019 will determine that too. It is therefore, more than a matter of merely electing its representatives. It is a battle for the Soul of India.

To understand this stream of thought, let us go back in time, first to the early years of the 19th Century and then further back to Indian history dating back 1300 years. It would be interesting to first course through the account of Lt Col James Todd, an officer in the East India Company and the celebrated author of ‘Annals of Rajasthan’. James Todd was born on 20 March 1782 in Islington, London, and died aged 53 on 18 November 1835. When he returned to England, his main job was to advise the Board of Directors of the East India Company on matters concerning India. At that point of time, there was a group of very influential people, including the Governor General of India, Lord William Bentinck who wanted to wipe out all traces of Indian civilisation, which they considered as barbaric. This group was opposed by Col Todd and his friend William Jones Prinseps and also by others at the Asiatic Society who were not only aware of India’s civilisational heritage but were also strong promoters of it. They considered India to be the original source of all knowledge, languages and philosophy of all Europe, and preserving of such a  heritage to be in the best interests of not just India, but also for the rest of the world.

The British Parliament consequently held hearings to determine the future course of action by the British Government and the British East India Company. Todd gave sage advice about the wisdom of preserving Indian heritage and allowing local rulers to govern their kingdoms with minimal interference. On the other hand, James Mills, author of History of British India, espoused the cause of proselytisation, and pitched for the whole of India to be taken over by the East India Company, the population converted and put to work as semi-slaves for England and John Company. In his arguments he said: “The entire population should be subdued and cowed. Their role was to be passive and obedient…we take all military power in our hands. Now it is considered what military power implies; that is, in truth, the whole power; the company must get rid of the abomination of indirect rule…” Mills further urged that panopticons be established all over the country. Panopticon is a modern prison system where people are kept under surveillance and control! Finally he said that he found all of Todd’s reasoning in favour of Indians absurd and irrational. “Nothing is more ridiculous” he told the Parliamentary Committee.

The British Parliament went with the arguments put forward by Mills, and that became the policy for the East India Company. It however led to disaffection amongst the Indian population, resulting in the First War of Independence in 1857. Fortuitously for the British, the Crimean War had just ended a year earlier and that enabled them to bring more troops to India to restore the situation, albeit with the help of some turncoats. But the British government had learned its lesson. The British Parliament withdrew the right of the British East India Company to rule India in November 1858 and India came directly under the Crown, through its representative called the Governor General. But the cultural invasion continued, albeit with a greater degree of sophistication and finesse, the impact of which is still seen, seven decades after Independence. The heirs of Macaulay and Mills tragically continue to live in our midst, and their narrative forms the dominant discourse in the country.

Now let us go back in time to the eighth century CE, when the Arab hordes began invading India. In 712 CE, Mohammed bin Qasim, invaded Sindh, defeating the local ruler Raja Dahir. The Raja died on the battlefield for his people, his daughters were taken as sex slaves for the Umayyad rulers and the land was pillaged and plundered. Despite that, it is Qasim who he is revered today in Pakistan as the first Pakistani and the Raja, who fought for the honour of his people lies forgotten. This is a classic example of one culture subsuming another. The Arab hordes, whenever they plundered the Indian land mass, desecrated the temples, killed the priests and destroyed all institutions of learning. Nalanda is witness to what such destruction entails as are the thousands of ransacked temples and monuments all across India.  That the Indian civilisational structure survived is testimony to its strength and vibrancy. But a thousand plus years of subjugation has dented the psyche of a proud people, many of whom now suffer from the Stockholm syndrome and seek to justify the acts of the perpetrators of violence, as being the customs of those times. India has shed its chains which physically kept the country under subjugation, but the mental chains still hold us captive. These need to be broken as the spirit of India seeks rejuvenation.

This is the battle which now confronts India, as the people go forth to cast their ballots. What is the India we want? And whose idea of India shall prevail. For the first time since Independence, there is a real choice available to the people, with two competing ideologies battling for the soul of India. The elections of 2014 were fought on the plank of rooting out corruption, which had taken a form so venomous and brazen that its perpetrators would openly boast of their misdeeds and flaunt their ill gotten gains. But 2019 is a different matter. The issues are not just about development, jobs and good governance, but also about how we look at ourselves and at our history. Should India be held hostage to ideologies that seek to demean our culture, our heritage and our very way of life? Or should we reclaim with pride the ethos and spirit of a proud people, whose land was pillaged for a thousand years but whose spirit could not be subjugated. The process of rejuvenating the Indian mind began in 2014 and has gone a short distance, but the journey is long and would require to be sustained if we truly wish to unshackle our minds. This too, is what election 2019 is about.

Election 2019 is thus a challenge to the ideologues who deny the very existence of Lord Rama and question his birthplace. The Ram Temple issue at Ayodhya is not just about building a temple, which in any case can be built anywhere. It is about respecting a long held and sacred belief, which transcends religious barriers and which rightly, should not have been disputed in the very first place. It is a challenge to the ideologues who had control of the education system and who used their time in power to corrupt and distort our history. It is a challenge to those who still occupy high positions in India and who with shameless abandon, slipped into the shoes of the British and continued the legacy of Macaulay and his ilk. It is a challenge to the corrupt who so easily looted the land and pillaged it at will. And as many of these ideologues still continue to occupy positions of power and pelf, whether in India’s bureaucracy, the media, the corporate sector, the social circles and even in the  political space, they will resist with all their might and all the cunningness at their disposal, the emergence of alternate ideas which can derail the gravy train that they have fed upon these last seven decades and who have desecrated this sacred land and impoverished its people.

Election 2019 is thus also about reclaiming our heritage, our culture, and our history. It is about acceptance of the good in our scriptures, our traditions and our way of life and embracing our heritage in full measure and with pride. That is why, Election 2019 is not just about electing the lawmakers to the 17th Lok Sabha. It is, in a very true sense, a battle for the soul of India.

This article was first published by India Foundation:

https://indiafoundation.in/articles-and-papers/elections-2019-battle-for-the-soul-of-india/