Book Review: Sixteen stormy Days

Review by Maj Gen Dhruv C. Katoch

On 9 December 1946, just over eight months prior to India achieving her independence on 15 August 1947, the new Constituent Assembly was convened with Dr Rajendra Prasad elected as the permanent chairman. Dr Prasad declared his intent of placing before the world ‘a model of a constitution that will satisfy all our people, all groups, all communities, all religions inhabiting this vast land, and which will ensure to everyone freedom of action, freedom of thought, freedom of belief and freedom of worship’. The sentiment was indeed noble and reflected the subconscious desire of a people long suppressed, who desired nothing more than ridding themselves of the foreign yoke which had enslaved them for close to a millennia.

The chairman of the Drafting Committee, Dr Bhim Rao Ambedkar was conscious of the vast responsibility that had been placed on his shoulders. A young and aspirational India was finally waking to a new dawn of hope, where they would be the masters of their own fate and Dr Ambedkar rightly described individual rights and the constitutional remedies to enforce and safeguard them as the ‘very soul of the Constitution and the very heart of it’. 

The Constituent Assembly debates which took place over the next three years after the convening of the Constituent Assembly, and which finally led to the enactment of the Constitution of India on 26 November 1949, make for very interesting reading. Some of the most heated debates took place on the issue of fundamental rights. India had shed its foreign yoke and the people were free. The Constitution had to reflect that spirit of freedom. One of the aspects debated was the need for India’s judicial system to act as the guarantor of the fundamental rights. Very heated debates took place on the powers of the Executive and the Legislature to make laws. There was a body of opinion that wanted certain laws made by the Executive to be outside the purview of judicial review. That of course would have given to the Executive the power to bypass the Constitution when it was found expedient to do so, even if it trampled on the fundamental rights. Thankfully, there were enough dissenting voices to ensure that did not happen. 

Ambedkar warned of the need to observe certain morals and conventions of the Constitution, both by the government and by the people if parliamentary democracy was to succeed. “Indeed, if I may say so,” he had emphatically asserted in the Constituent Assembly, “if things go wrong under the new Constitution, the reason will not be that we had a bad Constitution. What we will have to say was that man was vile”. 

On 26 January 1950, when India became a Sovereign Democratic Republic, no less a person than India’s first Prime Minister, Mr JL Nehru proclaimed the Indian Constitution as “…the most elaborate declaration of human rights yet framed by any state”. The euphoria that existed on the day that India became a Republic was second perhaps only to the heady feeling of becoming an independent nation at the midnight hour of 15 August 1947. In the words of the 19th century poet, William Ernest Henley, India finally was the master of its fate and the captain of its soul. 

It did not take long however, for the government to come to the conclusion that building an edifice based on strong guarantees of upholding individual freedoms was one thing; living up to those ideals was another. Within a year, there was a visible change in the stance of the government. The Constitution, which had been proclaimed as a charter of freedom for India’s people and the fulfilment of their dreams, was suddenly perceived as being an impediment in the way of the will of the same people. 

This is the story that has so eloquently been written by Tripurdaman Singh is his outstanding book, ‘Sixteen Stormy Days’. The events which led to the enactment of the First Amendment, have been chronicled in a manner that makes both for easy reading and comprehensive understanding. In essence, this was the first battle of Indian liberalism, but it was lost on the grounds of political expediency. The very people who had drafted the Constitution sought its amendment, leaving just a few stalwarts like SP Mookerji, Mr Jayakar, Jai Prakash Narain, Acharya Kripalani, HV Kamath, MC Chagla and a handful of others to stand up for Indian liberalism. But it was a losing fight and the amendment was enacted. This book traces the history of those fateful sixteen days when the issue was debated before it was finally enacted. The sixteen months between the promulgation of the Constitution and its amendment in June 1951 held great significance for India’s polity, and the structure of the state. The social fabric had been altered and this was to become the precedence for many other amendments in the coming years.

In the debates carried out in the Constituent Assembly, the issue of personal freedom, civil liberties and individual rights and how these would manifest in the Constitution, had been a constant theme. That was why, in the fundamental rights, the provision was put in Article 13, that any law which was in force in India, and which was inconsistent with or in derogation of the fundamental rights would be void. That was why Ambedkar proudly declared that individual rights and constitutional remedies to enforce and safeguard them were ‘the heart and soul of the Constitution’. This is not to say that reservations were not expressed. The outgoing Governor General, C Rajagopalachari opined a need for restoring the ‘unqualified reverence for the state’ and a revival of ‘feudal manners and chivalry, but in terms of modern democracy’. There were thus contradictory voices which laid bare the ambivalence that existed within the ruling Congress party with respect to the Constitution.

The issues which were finally to lead to the amendment of the Constitution started coming out soon after its promulgation. Heavy handed actions of the state came under scrutiny and the courts threw out the provisions which gave the state the power to indefinite and open ended detention. The Courts increasingly became active on such issues, but this was but the tip of the iceberg. Soon, the government faced challenges to its land reforms agenda, which was a part of its social engineering exercise. It also came up with issues pertaining to freedom of speech, desiring to impose curbs on such freedom, in what it perceived to be in the interest of the state. Nehru, for some reason, was particularly irked by the constant criticism of Pakistan, which he felt was hampering his foreign policy. With the government getting constrained by the Constitutional limits on Executive power, it sought a way out of the impasse. As the Times of India observed in its editorial, it was tragic that, ‘our popular governments should at every stage, feel the need of repressive laws, against which leaders of our freedom struggle, cried themselves hoarse for generations’. In such an environment, the government introduced the Constitution (First Amendment) Bill.

In Parliament, Nehru came up with the ingenuous argument that the changes were required in the Constitution, because, if the changes were not made then the whole purpose of the Constitution ‘may be defeated or delayed’. This was a strange argument, which in effect meant that the enforcement of the fundamental rights was defeating the Constitution. Nehru also came up with the proposition that the Directive Principles in the Constitution took precedence over fundamental rights!

As elections were around the corner, and which were eventually held in 68 phases from October 1951 to February 1952, the Congress was keen to go into the elections with having fulfilled its poll promises. Nehru proclaimed the amendments in the context of preserving the interests of the country. However, it was more in the nature of preserving the interests of his party. And this has become a failing in India’s polity, where self interest and party interests are camouflaged in terms of the national interest and the national good. Nehru bulldozed his way to pass the amendments and Ambedkar, despite his doubts, concurred. So did the President, who perhaps had little option but to go with the tide, bound as he was with the advice of the cabinet. Patel had passed away on 15 December 1950, so the last stalwart who could have opposed Nehru was not on the scene. The amendments were passed by 228 votes in favour and 20 against, with about 50 members abstaining. Articles 15, 19 and 31 of the Constitution were amended, with which the first battle for Indian liberalism had been lost. This set the tone for a series of amendments that were to come in subsequent years.

It should thus come as no surprise to anyone that Article 35A was surreptitiously incorporated into the Indian Constitution, purportedly as a result of the Jawaharlal Nehru-Sheikh Abdullah Agreement of 1953. But the same was never published in the text of the Constitution which were printed thereafter, indicating that a fraud had been committed on the Constitution. During the emergency, Indira Gandhi amended the Constitution, the 42nd Amendment, throwing to the winds parliamentary propriety, and pushing through the amendment when most opposition leaders were in jail, bringing out the most widespread changes to the Constitution. It was not national interests which prompted the change, but self preservation. Then her son, Mr Rajiv Gandhi, reversed a Supreme Court Judgement, in which a Muslim woman had won the right to alimony from her husband: the case of Shah Bano. Under pressure from the Muslim clergy, the Rajiv Gandhi government passed the Muslim Women (Protection of Rights on Divorce) Act, 1986 which diluted the judgment of the Supreme Court and restricted the right of Muslim divorcées to alimony from their former husbands for only 90 days after the divorce. No national interest was involved and the Act was regressive in that it discriminated against all Muslim women. What was in play was vote bank politics and a desire to secure the votes of a section of the Indian public.

The Right to Education of all Children came into being by the 86th Amendment, when Article 21A was added to the Constitution. By the Constitution (Ninety-third Amendment) Act, Article 15 was amended, in 2005, which gave the state the power to make special provisions, by law, for the advancement of any socially and educationally backward classes of citizens or for the Scheduled Castes or Scheduled Tribes, insofar as such special provisions relate to their admission to educational institutions, including private educational institutions, whether aided or unaided by the State, other than the minority educational institutions. The leaving out of minority educational institutions is discriminatory, but yet it has become a part of our Constitution. The chipping away at the fundamental rights, which started with the First Amendment, has still not ended and points to faultiness in India’s polity which seeks specific vote banks to retain power, at the expense of the national interest. That remains India’s tragedy—a process that started with the First Amendment.

The book, Sixteen Stormy days, by Tripurdaman Singh hence should form essential reading not just for those pursuing a degree in law, but by the lay public and by all students who have an interest in statecraft, as also those who serve in government. The Constitution is a sacred document. Its trampling on extraneous considerations can do no good to the Republic.

SIXTEEN STORMY DAYS

By Tripurdaman Singh

Penguin,

Hardback, 288 pages, price Rs 599/-

POST COVID 19: CHALLENGES FOR INDIA

Since December 2019, when the first case of Covid-19 (the illness caused by SARS CoV-2) was detected in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei province of China, the spread of the virus, also called the China virus or the Wuhan virus by some, has spread to all corners of the globe, causing death and destruction in its wake and severely disrupting the world’s economy. China, which was the only country impacted when the virus first appeared in Wuhan, has now controlled its spread, but large parts of Europe, the US, Africa and Asia to which the virus spread in a later time frame are still grappling with containing the virus. India, with a population in excess of 1.3 billion people has done fairly well in restricting the spread of SARS CoV-2, but like other countries in the world, its economy has taken a severe hit and India now has to grapple with a fresh set of challenges in an increasingly volatile world.

Till the virus hit India, the nation’s major concerns were getting the economy to double digit growth, with the hope of moving on to a USD 5 trillion economy by 2024 or 2025. This appears to be a distant dream now, with the current years projection for economic growth being pegged at a mere 1.9 percent. However, growth for calendar year 2021 is expected to rebound to 7.4%. How to get the economy back on track in a changed international environment will remain the primary focus of the government, while simultaneously also dealing with the earlier challenges on the security and energy front.

Cross Border Terrorism

Despite the onslaught of SARS CoV-2, the sponsors of terror have shown no let up in their activities. Pakistan continues to support cross border terrorism and has not closed any of the camps it has set up for the training of terrorist groups like the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) and others. Pakistan continues to use terrorism as an instrument of its state policy, as seen by repeated attempts being made to infiltrate such elements into India across the Line of Control (LoC) to unleash violence. Some of these terrorists like Masood Azhar and Mohammed Saeed are on the counter-terror map of the world and remain in the list of the world’s most-wanted terrorists, but they continue to find safe refuge in Pakistan. The period 01 January 2020-23 April 2020 saw repeated attempts by terrorist groups to create mayhem in the Valley, most of which were foiled by effective counter terrorism operations which resulted in 50 terrorists being eliminated including several top commanders of JeM and LeT. In the operations conducted, 17 security forces personnel also laid down their lives. During the same period in 2019, a total of 72 terrorists were eliminated, with 59 security forces personnel laying down their lives. While this shows the positive impact of India’s countering terrorism effort, it also is indicative of the fact that there is no let up in the intent of inimical forces to unleash terror on the hapless citizens of the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir.

Ceasefire violations by the Pakistan military remain a constant feature across the Line of Control (LoC), though the Indian Army continues to give an appropriate response for each and every act of transgression. More insidious however, is the use Pakistan is making of the social media to unleash a vicious propaganda war against India. This is being done not only within India, to create communal discord, but also in the Arab world. An example of one such attempt was the creation of a fake account of the Omani Princess HH Dr Mona Fahad Mahmoud Al Said, tweeting about Muslims getting prosecuted in India. While the Omani princess has come out openly and declared the account as fake, many people fell victim to the subterfuge. Many Pakistanis are also posing as Saudi businessmen, to target the Modi government. Pakistan has been actively using the social media as part of its influence operations strategy since long. A marked increase in these efforts took place post 5 August 2019, when the Indian Parliament revoked the provisions of Article 370 and Article 35A, and divided the erstwhile state of J&K into the Union Territory of Ladakh and the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. To create dissonance in the minds of India’s muslim population, these efforts have now significantly increased, suggesting the need for appropriate countermeasures.

There have also been reports that Pakistan is now pushing Coronavirus infected terrorists into India. As per Shri Dilbagh Singh, DGP, Jammu and Kashmir, “…It is a matter of concern that Pakistan is pushing COVID-19 infected militants from across…Till now, Pakistan had been supporting terrorists and now it is exporting coronavirus patients to infect people of Kashmir. This is something on which there is a need to take precaution”. While no concrete proof of such attempts being made by Pakistan are available, such acts by the Pakistan military appear unlikely. Such personnel would invariably come in contact with the normal public in Pakistan as well as their handlers on the border areas prior to induction. A patient suffering from Covid-19 is unlikely to bear the rigour of the journey and the probability of him infecting his own colleagues is far higher than in infecting any person from the Indian side. Perhaps this is a ploy by Pakistan to spread concern within the Indian security establishment, but its practical manifestation is extremely doubtful

The Regional Security Environment

The region continues to simmer with violence, with the Afghan peace process in tatters, and the situation in the Gulf also remaining extremely tenuous. The US-Taliban peace deal is as good as dead, with the Taliban paying scant heed to observing any sort of ceasefire with the Government forces. In fact, the Taliban has even rejected President Ashraf Ghani’s appeal to the group to lay down arms for the Islamic holy month of Ramzan, which began on 24 April 2020.

With the US deeply committed in addressing home concerns in combatting the Coronavirus, it perhaps is less focussed on what is happening in Afghanistan, where Taliban forces continue to attack government troops. Post the signing of the troop withdrawal agreement with the United States in February, attacks by Taliban on Afghan forces recommenced within a week of the ceasefire, though the Taliban has for now, held back on attacking foreign forces. The attacks come  at a time when Afghanistan is reeling with the Coronavirus outbreak and has limited resources to take the necessary measures to control its spread. As per a New York Times report, at least 262 government troops and 50 civilians have lost their lives in April 2020. These are very high casualty figures and do not augur well for peace in the region. We could well be looking into a scenario where Afghanistan slips into civil war. Indian concerns get magnified as a great deal of political capital as well as treasure has been invested by the government of India in building infrastructure in that country, and all that could well go up in smoke. Also of concern is the fact that instability in Afghanistan would greatly increase Pakistani influence in that region. The possibility of some elements of the Taliban jumping in the fray to fight in the Union Territory of J&K after crossing the LoC, cannot be ruled out.

The situation in the Gulf also remains worrisome, as Daesh (Islamic State) remains active in the region along with elements of al Qaeda. Turkey is in conflict with Syrian Government forces which in turn are being supported by Russia and Iran. Relations between Iran and the US continue to remain tense, though thankfully, after the killing of Maj Gen Soleimani in January 2020, the region did not slip into war, which could well have led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and caused serious shortage of energy resources across the world. On 22 April, in a move that could once again stoke conflict, the US President ordered the US Navy to “shoot down and destroy” any Iranian gunboats that harass US ships. This has created yet another flashpoint in the region on the high seas, which could potentially impact the transportation of energy resources through the Strait of Hormuz.

Another factor for consideration is the hostility that exists between Iran and Israel. Israel feels threatened by Iran’s nuclear and precision guided munition (PGM) programme. In Mid-April, Iran also unveiled a range of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), with a range in excess of 1000 kms and which could reach Israel from Iran. Israel considers increased Iranian capability to target Israel as an existential threat and thus could respond unilaterally against Iran to obviate the threat at source. Israel is cognisant of the fact that it was a drone attack by Iran’s proxies that destroyed the Saudi Aramco oil facilities on 14 September 2019, which led to a fifty percent loss of production for about a month and highlighted Iranian drone technology. They thus cannot take lightly, any potential threat from Iran. According to Jonathan Schanzer, Senior Vice President Research of FDD (Foundation for Defence of Democracies), Iran’s PGM programme could be the issue that prompts the region's next war.

All this is taking place in the Gulf in the backdrop of heightened tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with both countries jostling for increased influence in the muslim world. This is playing out in Yemen, where the Saudi forces are embroiled in a military campaign against the Houthi rebels. A unilateral ceasefire was declared by Saudi for two weeks which ended on 22 April, but which was rejected by the Houthi’s. As a condition for agreeing to a ceasefire, the Houthis are demanding a lifting of air and sea blockades imposed by the Saudi coalition to the regions which the Houthis control, but that as yet is not forthcoming. In the meantime, the Saudi led coalition has extended the ceasefire for another four weeks, to support efforts to contain the spread of Covid-19. Yemen is perhaps one of the poorest countries in the world and the conflict is another potential flash point which could spin out of control.

The region is also witnessing a serious slump in the prices of crude oil which will adversely impact all the major oil producers. The Coronavirus pandemic across the globe has led to a slash in demand for oil, which in turn has led to a global economic contraction. Oil prices have tumbled by half this year and saw Brent crude prices hovering between USD 31 - USD 32 per barrel, as the spread of the coronavirus coincided with a bitter price war that saw producers flood the market. Despite a deal reached by oil cartel and allies – known as Opec+ to end the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, oil prices have halved from the 2019 average price of Brent crude which stood at USD 64.26 per barrel and which further slipped to below USD 10 per barrel on 21 April 2020. The drop in oil prices will see a rise as world demand picks up in a few months, but the prices are likely to stabilise at around USD 30 per barrel for Brent crude, well below the average price for Brent crude in 2019. While this will provide some solace to the consumers, especially to India and other countries in South Asia who are not oil producers, it will impact seriously on the economies of West Asia which are dependent of export of crude oil.

Chinese Intransigence

The impact of Covid-19 across the world has not deterred China from seeking to impose its influence in the South China Sea. As the virus originated from China, that country was the first to suffer its consequences, but since then China has recovered from the impact and while its economy has taken a hit, it is still projected to grow at 1.2 per cent for the current year and rebound strongly to 9.2 per cent in 2021. Of concern is the fact that Beijing has ratcheted up pressure on Taiwan, which it seeks to reunite. On 9 February 2020, Chinese fighters and bombers flew around the Taiwan in an apparent show of force—what the Chinese call “island encirclement” drills. The exercise was described by China’s Eastern Theatre Command as a “completely legitimate and necessary action aimed at the current situation in the Taiwan Strait and safeguarding national sovereignty”. Next day, in yet another provocative act, Chinese jets, including J-11 fighters, crossed an unofficial middle line in the Taiwan Strait, forcing the Taiwanese Air Force to scramble its F-16 fighters, duly armed, to counter any potential threat. In early April, a Chinese naval flotilla led by the country’s first aircraft carrier passed by the eastern and southern coasts of Taiwan to carry out drills. These acts are coercive and designed to put pressure on Taiwan at a time when the world is battling the Corona virus.

China is also ramping up pressure on its claim areas in the South China Sea. Chinese trawlers, guarded by China’s coast guard, have been fishing in waters which form part of the EEZ of Indonesia, off the Natunas. In April, a Chinese coast guard ship rammed and sank a Vietnamese fishing boat. China has also approved setting up two districts in areas claimed by Vietnam—the islands and reefs of the Paracel and Spratly Islands, to which Vietnam has lodged a protest. A Chinese government survey ship was also involved in tagging an exploration vessel operated by Petronas, Malaysia's state oil company, in disputed waters in the South China Sea. Chinese belligerence is a deliberate show of force, cocking a snook at the world—and this at a time when the world is engaged in battling the Corona virus.

India: Challenges and Opportunities

India’s internal and external challenges have not undergone any changes, but stand further magnified with the onset of the Coronavirus and its debilitating effect on the nations economy. Internally, attempts continue to be made to weaken the nations synthetic fabric by inimical elements within the country, primarily as an attempt to discredit the government with an eye on the next general elections, slated for 2024. In the event of the ruling dispensation winning the same, it would mean that the main opposition party would be out of power for 15 years—a situation they find unpalatable. External agencies too, do not find the prospect of a strong national government in India to be conducive to their self interest, so such forces also lend support to fissiparous tendencies within the country. The agitations seen on the issue of the Citizenship Amendment Act are a pointer in this direction. A rational criticism of the actions of the Tablighi Jamaat, which paid scant heed to government directives on preventing the spread of the Coronavirus became a vehicle for propaganda, with government actions being seen as targeting India’s muslim community. How a small group of the Tablihji Jamaat became conflated with the larger muslim society of India, of which it does not form even a fraction of one per cent, is a matter of concern, but it points to insidious forces at work to weaken the national fabric. Such efforts to create a communal divide will only gather momentum as we move closer to the 2024 elections, and addressing this issue will remain a major challenge for the government.

The economy has taken a severe hit with the lockdown imposed since 25 March 2020 for a period of three weeks, which was then extended to 3 May 2020. This has led to high disruptions, especially in the unorganised sector, with millions of daily wagers and migrant workers facing the brunt. While all sections of the economy were impacted, the MSMEs (Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises) were the hardest hit and would require special schemes to get back on their feet. Also hit to the verge of collapse are the hospitality and aviation sectors, which will continue to bear the brunt, well after the lock down is lifted. How these sectors are revived will remain the defining challenge for the government.

On the positive side, the handling of the pandemic by the government has been outstanding. The casualty figures, which many thought would be in the millions, have been effectively contained. As of 26 April, while the world has suffered close to three million cases of Covid-19, resulting in over 200,000 fatalities, India has just over 26,000 cases of Covid-19 and  just over 800 fatalities. The lockdown period has given India enough time to educate the public on preventive measures as also to build up its health infrastructure. As of date, India has 700 Covid hospitals and has built up a capacity of 190,000 beds, exclusively for Covid-19 patients. 12,000 ventilators are also available across the country for Covid-19 patients, which are being augmented by another 10,000 ventilators by the end of April. While 80% of the patients report mild symptoms or are asymptomatic, the remaining 20% do need oxygen support and in extreme cases the use of ventilators. Less than 3 per cent of the total cases in hospital would require ventilators and as such, India is adequately placed to deal with any emergency in the months to come.

As the stock markets have taken a hit, with both the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) suffering huge losses, predators are on the prowl to pick up a stake in the Indian market when the prices have bottomed out. In the March quarter, People’s Bank of China (PBoC) bought 1,74,92,909 shares, or 1.01 percent of HDFC limited, at a time when the share prices had dropped significantly. The government was quick to prevent further Chinese predatory moves into India’s financial system and revised India's Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) policy, which now requires approval from the Central Government for all countries bordering India. Such proactive measures augur well for India’s financial stability.

Externally, cross border terrorism remains a major threat for peace and stability in the region. Pakistan, while no longer a conventional military threat, is unlikely to stop using terrorists as an instrument of its foreign policy. The government has taken firm steps in the political, diplomatic, economic and military spheres to counter Pakistani designs, but such measures will need to be persisted with over a period of time and further enhanced to bring about a qualitative change in Pakistani behaviour. More importantly, India would need to negate the vicious propaganda war unleashed by Pakistan to subvert the minds of a section of Indians as also to show India in a negative light across the world. India’s counter measures through influence operations, encompassing both public affairs and public diplomacy, would require an organisational structure for effective execution. It may be worth considering the creation of a perception management organisation for the purpose.

With respect to China, India’s major concern is China’s predatory moves along its land borders and its increasing presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). India is committed to free and open navigation in the Indo-Pacific and is coordinating its efforts towards this end with all concerned countries to achieve this outcome. Of particular interest is the Quad, a grouping of US, Japan, Australia and India, which is likely to grow in momentum and capability in the years to come. India will also have to be mindful of its land borders with China and sustain an adequate force to dissuade China from any hostile action. It is appreciated that the government would require huge inflow of funds to get the economy back on its feet in a quick time frame and it has been suggested by some that the defence budget could be slashed. This however will prove to be counter-productive in the long run as India faces a multitude of security challenges from its inimical neighbours. It must also be remembered that military capability takes years to build and for short-term gains, it would not be advisable to weaken our defence capability.

In conclusion, India’s handling of the pandemic has raised its stature on the world stage. A revised world order, following the pandemic, could well see the world’s acceptance of India as a country deserving a seat on the High Table.

Published in IF Journal, May June 2020.

MILITARY DIMENSION TO THE CORONAVIRUS

In December 2019, the first case of Covid-19 (the illness caused by SARS CoV-2) was detected in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei province of China. The Chinese media has stated that the virus originated from bats, pinning the source of origin to the food market in Wuhan which sold a number of wild animals including bats. But all this is in the realm of speculation. It would not be out of order to consider other possibilities of the source of outbreak of the virus, especially one having military connotations.

Could the virus have originated from one of the virology laboratories located in Wuhan? Could this have been a planned trial by the Chinese of a biological weapon which could carry out mass destruction? Or was this an accidental leak? This too, is a matter of conjecture, but as the potential consequences of the spread of the Wuhan virus are so cataclysmic, each and every possibility needs thorough examination and cannot be brushed under the carpet.

Let us examine the hypothesis that this was a planned Chinese biological warfare weapon, which they let loose on the world, first exposing their own residents to the virus, but restricting its impact so that neither Beijing nor Shanghai was impacted. The capacity of the virus to kill is limited, and the data from China shows that over 80% of COVID-19 cases are either asymptomatic or have mild disease. But the fact that the virus spreads very fast once it is introduced to a population, makes it lethal. As an example, if one million people are infected in an area, while 80 percent will recover quickly, most not even knowing that they are sick, at least 200,000 will require hospitalisation, which is a very large number putting a huge strain on the civic infrastructure and causing governments to impose a lockdown to prevent further spread. The fatalities will be even lesser, perhaps in the range of 20,000 or so, but the impact on the nation’s economy will be crippling. Today, besides India, the US, Europe, Japan, ASEAN, the Gulf countries and others have been serious impacted, with their economies taking a severe hit.

The Chinese economy, while hit to some extent, appears to have recovered and is projected to grow at 2.5 per cent. While this is the lowest rate of growth for China in decades, it is far better than the projected rate of growth in Europe and India, which is close to zero percent. So, if this was a planned biological attack by the Chinese, then they have succeeded in full measure as the Western economies stand crippled and may well go into recession. This puts China in pole position.

Major stock exchanges across the world have taken a drubbing with the  Coronavirus pandemic shaving off nearly a third of the global market cap. But interestingly, the Chinese stock exchange has emerged almost unscathed amid the global market rout. With  supply chains and global demand being disrupted, a great deal of uncertainty has been created over the long term. China appears to be in a good position to weather the storm and emerge as the market leader, post the pandemic. With stocks tumbling, China is being stocks at reduced rates and in India, has already picked up a one per cent stake in HDFC. 

In mid January, President Trump signed an initial trade deal with China, bringing to a close, the first chapter of a protracted and economically damaging trade war, which was hurting China’s economy. Based on the terms of the agreement, China agreed to buy USD 12.5 billion in U.S. agricultural products in 2020, and a further USD 19.5 billion in 2021. However, with the pandemic raging across the world, the trade deal is as good as dead, which will be a source of dissatisfaction to the US.

Beijing has ratcheted up the pressure on Taiwan, which it seeks to reunite with the mainland. In February, while carrying out military drills, Chinese jets crossed an unofficial middle line in the Taiwan Strait. A day earlier, Chinese fighters and bombers flew around the island. Then in early April, a Chinese naval flotilla led by the country’s first aircraft carrier passed by the eastern and southern coasts of Taiwan to carry out drills. These acts are coercive and designed to put pressure on Taiwan at a time when the world is battling the corona virus. China is also ramping up pressure on its claim areas in the South China Sea. Chinese belligerence is a deliberate show of force, cocking a snook at the world.

Coincidentally, at this time, the US naval fleet has been hit by the coronavirus. Of the 11 aircraft carriers in the U.S. Navy's fleet, the crew in three of the aircraft carriers are reported to have been infected. More than half the crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt have been disembarked at Guam, which shows how a virus can impact military capability. So, at a time when the Chinese are getting belligerent in the Indo-Pacific, the US naval fleet finds a part of its crew disabled due to the coronavirus. The USS Ronald Reagan, presently docked in Yokosuka, Japan, is for the moment the only available aircraft carrier to project power in the western Pacific, to counter potential hostilities from China.

India needs to be concerned as China claims large chunks of Indian Territory in Arunachal Pradesh and is in illegal occupation of the Aksai Chin. If China is moving in the direction of using biological weapons, then India needs to be prepared accordingly. This is no longer in the realm of science fiction as portrayed in the film Contagion. Biological weapons can destroy a nations economy and seriously degrade its military potential. It is a reality thrust upon us, which we can ignore only at our peril.

Social Media: A Tool for Influencing Attitudes

From time immemorial, information has played a vital role in preserving the security of the state. In India, a veritable treatise was written on the subject by Chanakya in his Arthashastra, some time between 200-300 BCE. In China, the writings of Sun Tzu, who preceded Chanakya by about two hundred years, also expounded on these principles. The importance of information in statecraft and warfare thus has historical roots.

In the present times, the centrality of communications and information technology in war-fighting capability has led to the concept of Information Warfare (IW), presenting both new opportunities and new vulnerabilities in conflict. IW had three traditional focus areas. These were (a) Denial and protection of information; (b) Exploitation and ability to attack enemy information and data systems. This also embraces Electronic Warfare (EW) and attacks on computer networks and enemy power systems; and (c) Deception by various means, including spoofing, imitation and distortion. To this has now been added the fourth element: The ability to influence attitudes. All activities carried out under IW are called information operations.

Influencing Attitudes

The great Indian scriptural text, the Mahabharata, gives an account of how information influenced the course of the war. On the tenth day of the battle, when Bhishma fell, Dronacharya was made the commander of the armies of King Dhritarashtra. Drona was a mighty warrior with exceptional prowess in the battlefield and the Pandava’s felt that he would be insurmountable in battle. So a ruse was initiated whereby Drona was informed that Ashwatthama had been killed in battle. It was an elephant by the name of Ashwatthama which had been killed, but Ashwatthama was also the name of Drona’s son. When Drona was given the news, he assumed his son had been killed and in his grief stricken state, he became vulnerable and was killed. This was perhaps one of the earliest instances where information was used to influence attitudes and decision making.

The ability to influence attitudes is part of what is termed as psychological operations. While this has been part of warfare since ancient times, as seen by the manner in which Drona was killed, in today’s environment, the overarching spread of communications has made psychological warfare a very potent tool of statecraft. The Chinese strategist Sun Tzu laid emphasis on this aspect of warfare in his famous treatise, The Art of War.

“To fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting”.

The above strategy as expounded by Sun Tzu, aimed to subdue the enemy’s troops without fighting, in capturing their cities without laying siege to them and in overthrowing their kingdom without lengthy operations in the field. Psychological warfare was an important component of such a war fighting philosophy.

Centre of Gravity

Along with information operations of which influencing attitudes is a subset, another term—Centre of Gravity needs to be expounded upon. The concept enumerated by Clausewitz in his theory of war, was “A Centre of Gravity is always found in where the mass is concentrated the most densely, and which presents the most effective target for a blow”. This implied looking for the strongest mass of the enemy and destroying it thus making it easier to subdue the enemy. The emphasis was on determining the critical strength of the enemy. Over the years, an understanding of what constitutes the Centre of Gravity, has undergone a radical change. Today, the Centre of Gravity is viewed not so much as the source of the enemy’s strength, but his critical vulnerabilities. In the present age, the population of a nation is oft conceived as a critical vulnerability to be exploited and information operations are increasingly being targeted against indiscriminate population groups to influence attitudes, perceptions, and behaviour within the country and externally in favour of national goals and objectives during peace-time and in times of conflict. As an example, in the Vietnam War, the centre of gravity was correctly perceived as being US public opinion. The image of the Americans as imperial forces facilitated the fading support for the American war in Vietnam. The Social Media plays an important role towards this end.

Role of US, China and Others in India’s Neighbourhood

Today, influencing attitudes is an important part of the war fighting doctrine of all major powers. The United States seeks to influence the peoples of foreign countries through public diplomacy (PD) efforts. Attempts to influence the home audience is termed as Public Affairs. These activities are carried out by different organisations. Public diplomacy is viewed as often having a long-term perspective that requires working through the exchange of people and ideas to build lasting relationships and understanding the United States and its culture, values, and policies. The tools used are social and cultural and also the exploitation of the media, especially the internet.

Influencing Attitudes is also an important component of Chinese strategic thought. This was first enunciated in the Political Works Regulations 2003, for the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA), and updated in 2010. It addresses the importance of waging the “three warfares” - psychological warfare, public opinion warfare, and legal warfare, committing the PRC to expand the political areas of conflict from the purely military to the more political, with the foundation for the same being laid during peace time. This enables exploitation in war to seek an early end to conflict on favourable terms, and if possible to win without fighting. The Chinese tried this in the India-China face off at Doklam in 2017, where they resorted to threats and coercion, but as India held firm, the Chinese were forced to back down.

Pakistan too employs the usage of psychological warfare to influence attitudes, especially against India as also to promote its interests in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), coordinates all such activities. The United Kingdom, Russia, Israel and other powers too, employ their agencies to promote their respective national interests. Of late, the Islamic world, though not a monolith, has also become a major player in the game of influencing attitudes, especially on communal lines. Terrorist groups like al Qaeda, Islamic State (IS) and others also make extensive use of social media to reach a wide audience, which has been made possible by advances in communication technologies.

The Indian Experience

The social media can influences the hearts and minds of a target audience, and cause severe disruption. Low-cost, easily accessible social media tools act as a force multiplier by increasing networking and organising capabilities. The ability to rapidly disseminate graphic images and ideas through applications such as WhatsApp, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, blogs, and many others has put the power to shape narratives in the hands of the individual. This has both positive and negative consequences. While a more open and democratic spread of information is a necessary component to informed decision making, it can also transform into a strategic weapon in the hands of terrorists, insurgent groups, anti social elements or governments engaged in conflict.

India finds herself in a very vulnerable position today. As a young democracy, with a heterogeneous population, the nation is susceptible to divisive forces, which seek to divide the country on caste, communal, linguistic and racial faultiness. Individual misuse of the social media is really not a matter of great concern, though that too can cause fissures in society. The real threat arises when groups, organisations and states conspire to use the social media in an organised and systematic manner to promote a specific narrative against India.

An example of a systematic campaign to vilify the government could be seen in the events of 2015, when the media was agog with news that Churches were being attacked across the country. Much was made of a minor fire which broke out in a church in Dilshad Gardens on 1 December 2014, or the pelting of stones by a couple of people in a drunken brawl in January 2015, a fire which charred a crib in a church in Rohini, and a handful of other such instances. Minor theft in a church in Vasant Kunj was blown up to such an extent that the Home Minister ordered a full scale investigation, when all that had been stolen was a vessel costing no more than Rs 250. Exaggerated claims that all churches were under attack was a well designed media campaign by interested groups to embarrass the government and vitiate the environment before the Delhi elections scheduled for 7 February 2015. In March 2015, a 71 year old was raped in a church in Ranaghat, near the India-Bangladesh border, which falls in Nadia District of West Bengal and this too was attributed to the policies of the Central Government, though subsequent events proved that it was a case of rape and dacoity carried out by criminals from Bangladesh, all of whom were arrested. It was no surprise that after a few months, the entire campaign died down, but a lot of damage had been done to India’s secular credentials.

The social media was also exploited to create a rift between Hindus and Muslims. A barrage of misinformation was let loose that certain Hindu groups were deliberately targeting Muslims for killing of cows. While a few incidents did take place, a case in point being that of Mohammad Akhlaq, who was beaten to death by a mob in September 2015 on suspicions of stealing a cow calf and slaughtering it on the occasion of Eid, much of what has come out in the print, audio visual and social media, has ben exaggerated, pointing to forces at work, intent on destabilising the country. Instances of cow smugglers, firing and killing villagers do not find mention, but villagers protecting their flock come in for harsh treatment. In October 2018, a group of Muslim boys got into a tussle with an adjoining group of Valmikis and in the tussle, an eight year old Muslim boy lost his life. This was made into a case of mob lynching, despite all evidence being available that it was a brawl between kids, aged between 12 to 14 years. Such incidents gain mileage during elections, in order to polarise society and cater to the vote bank of certain political parties. They lose salience when the elections are over, pointing clearly to nefarious designs by certain groups and organisations.

The social media has also been used to aggressively peddle the narrative of attacks on Dalits. While cases of abuse do exist, most cases are random brawls, where one of the victims is later found to be a Dalit. And then the narrative is blown out of proportion. The case of suicide by Rohith Vermula, a PhD candidate in the University of Hyderabad in January 2016 is telling. The Wire headlined the unfortunate suicide as “My Birth is My Fatal Accident: Rohith Vemula's Searing Letter is an Indictment of Social Prejudice”. The BBC picked it up, headlining the event as “Rohith Vemula: The student who died for Dalit rights”. Many others followed suit and the social media had a field day in keeping the issue alive. But in all this, the facts somehow were conveniently forgotten. An investigation into the incident by a one-man judicial enquiry commission setup by the HRD ministry revealed that: “Rohith Vemula was not a Schedule Caste, action by university authorities didn’t trigger his suicide, there was no undue pressure from former HRD minister Smriti Irani or BJP leader Bandaru Dattatreya in the case”. The party in power in the state at this time was the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), led by KC Rao, which was in opposition to the Centre. Yet, it was the Centre which received the flak for so called anti-Dalit policies. Obviously, there was an attempt to create a caste divide, with ulterior motives.

On an equally insidious note, we had the case of communal riots in Kokrajhar, Assam, becoming a cause for targeting people from Northeast India in Bengaluru and Hyderabad, forcing thousands of them to flee for their lives in 2012. Rumours were spread by word of mouth, text messages (SMS) and social networking sites such as FaceBook, with many students from the Northeast receiving threat messages on their mobile phones. In Mumbai, hoodlums struck at the heart of the nation's pride, when they vandalised the iconic Amar Jawan Jyoti memorial near CST. If an incident in Assam can lead to retaliation in Bangalore, Hyderabad and Mumbai, then it indicates serious flaws in our security structure which are open to exploitation by both external agencies and hostile forces within the country.

The above examples highlight how the mainstream media as well as the social media are being exploited by vested interests to create discord and ill-will within the national polity. By the time the truth comes out, certain prejudices have already been imprinted in the minds of the citizen.

Pakistan has been active in the social media in spreading disinformation and in inciting Kashmiri Muslims. They have an organisation created for the purpose, which is used to create mistrust and fuel fear in the minds of the muslim community on a whole range of issues through planned misinformation and disinformation. The project is led by their inter services intelligence (ISI). While Indian agencies are aware of what Pakistan is doing, countering the same in a world where the media is open and free is proving to be a herculean task.

The Road Ahead

In the effort to shape the information space, the ‘softer’ elements of power, in both public diplomacy and public affairs play the dominant role. Shaping attitudes, both for external and domestic audiences requires a strategic focus and must be carried out at the national level. There is a need for information dominance which perhaps points to the requirement of the Prime Minister also having a National Information Advisor on the lines of the National Security Advisor. Message articulation remains an important function. As Josef Joffe, editor of Die Zeit has written, “Today, the most interesting types of power do not come out of the barrel of a gun’” and that a much bigger payoff can be achieved by “getting others to want what you want”. It must also be understood that influencing attitudes is not a substitute for capability. In advertising terms, the product has to live up to its brand image, otherwise it will lose its credibility. 

The social media as a tool is value neutral and could be used by any player. Fake narratives and propaganda unleashed by hostile agencies thus need to be countered in real time. So, what can be done to stem the misuse of the social media and the involvement of external agencies in India’s internal matters? Freedom of the press is a given and no action should ever be contemplated to curb the same. What may appear to be a very benign attempt to curb press freedom, for the very best of motives, will eventually lead to muzzling of the press and should not be resorted to. The media, despite its many weaknesses remains one of the strongest pillars of Indian democracy. In any case, seeing the diversity of the country and the proliferation of media channels, there are self-correct mechanisms within the system.

To prevent subversion of the Indian public by external agencies and by vested interests within the country, the foremost weapon is communication of the truth in real time. Post the abrogation of Article 35A and the provisions of Article 370, a vicious propaganda campaign was unleashed by  Pakistan and others, denigrating the Indian action. To counter the lies spread by such agencies, DoorDarshan gave live coverage of the ground situation in Kashmir through daily programmes called “The Kashmir Truth,” and its Hindi version, “Kashmir Ka Sach”. Lies propagated by external agencies on the social media were busted by DoorDarshan, especially when hostile actors used fake images from other parts of the world and passed them off as coming from Kashmir. More such initiatives are the need of the hour.

The spread of fake news in WhatsApp, Face Book and other portals is another cause of concern. While shutting down the App is an option, it would also deprive the millions of bonafide users from using the same. In 2019 itself, Facebook removed over 5.4 billion fake accounts, along with removing millions of hate speech posts. Fake Twitter handles have also been removed through government intervention. WhatsApp has also limited the number of forwards to five entities and this has now been further reduced to one. The receiver now comes to know that the message is forwarded as the same is imprinted in the message. It is a matter for consideration whether the name of the original sender should be in the forward along with the date and time such message originated. This would eliminate a large number of hoax and fake messages.

But perhaps the need of the hour is media literacy to combat the menace of hoax messages. Besides the government, concerned citizens groups as well as popular platforms could help citizens discern between real news and hoaxes. India’s legal structures also need to gear up to the challenge. If offenders are prosecuted in a quick time frame, it would help in creating an appropriate deterrent. Through education and updated cyber laws, citizens would tend to be more responsible and digital literacy across the board would increase. That perhaps, is the best way forward to combat this menace.

For SPMRF