The Infantry: Looking into the Future

 The Infantry: Looking into the Future 

Maj Gen Dhruv C Katoch

Introduction

Todays battlefield is no longer a clearly defined two-dimensional piece of ground. The country's entire land mass, coastal areas, island territories, ocean depths, air space, space and the cyber domain constitute the new battle space. It is all encompassing and now also includes the psychological domain: the minds of the political and military leadership and the population at large. The spectrum of conflict too cannot be perceived in terms of a neat, easily comprehended, linear escalator – with peace at one end and war at the other. It is a continuum within which lie a range of military and non-military conflict prevention, conflict and post conflict activities. The distinction between these is blurred. It is in this environment that the Infantry, colloquially called the 'Queen of the Battle' has to operate.

For the infantryman, the fight is always close and personal. It is the infantry which is involved in close quarter combat, captures ground and fights proverbially to the last man and last round. It is the skill, ingenuity and raw courage of the infantryman that constitutes the infantry’s core strength and raison d’être. Technology acts as a force multiplier to make the soldier truly invincible.

In the Indian Army, transformation of the infantry has been underway for some time now. The aim remains to exploit the phenomenal advances that have been made in the field of advanced weapons and communication systems so as to give the soldiers the winning edge in battle. But while transformation is underway, what remains constant is the ethos and spirit of the soldier. That is a function of training, regimentation, discipline, unit élan and esprit de corps. For the infantry, the soldier is the weapon, and he has to be enabled to fight successfully, in all weather and terrain conditions to defeat hostile forces.

The Challenges

India is confronted by two hostile neighbours and thus will always have to be prepared for conventional conflict. Maintaining our forces in a high state of operational readiness remains the best deterrent to war. It is also the mantra for victory in battle. For the infantry, this would imply the ability to mobilise and deploy in an acceptable time frame, and to thereafter, dominate the  battlefield. Information superiority and battlefield transparency will be the keys to winning tomorrow's wars. For the infantryman, this means knowing the location of friendly forces to achieve synergy in operations as also the location and capability of enemy forces and having the means to destroy them. This is a function of battlefield transparency, area dominance through advanced weapon systems and well trained, highly motivated soldiers. 

India has also been afflicted with internal security issues since independence. The infantry is the prime arm which combats insurgents and terrorists. Over the years, many volatile situations have been successfully addressed, maintaining at all times the unity and integrity of the nation. Today, the Infantry is actively involved in bringing peace and stability to J&K and to some parts of Northeast India. In both these areas, normalcy has been brought in to a very large extent, though stray cases of violence occur sporadically.

The Technological Edge

As part of protective gear, the Ministry of Defence is now procuring better quality bullet proof jackets that are able to shield a soldier against 7.62 mm armour-piercing rifle bullets and steel core bullets shot from a distance of 10 metres. The Army has opted for level 4 bulletproof jackets (BPJ) following instances of the use of steel core bullets by terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir. A tender for 62,500 bulletproof jackets was placed in November last year, of which 15,000 BPJs are being procured under the emergency procurement procedure. This will ensure that casualties in anti terrorist operations are further reduced.

In terms of firepower, the infantry will get the most advanced version of the AK series of rifles, the AK-203 assault rifle. The rifle is the soldiers personal weapon and while the indigenously manufactured 5.56 mm INSAS rifle has served the Army well, the need for a better personal weapon for the soldier has now become a prime requirement. A joint venture with Russia was set up in 2019 to produce the AK-203 rifle in Korwa Ordnance Factory in Amethi district at a cost of over Rs 7,000 crore. The production of these rifles will greatly enhance the ability of the Infantry in operations, both in the conventional as well as in the sub conventional domain. As there was a delay in finding a replacement of the 5.56 mm INSAS rifle, the US-made Sig Sauer rifles was procured as an emergency option in 2019. Now, over 671,000 AK-203 rifles (7.62×39mm) will be manufactured at the Korwa Ordnance Factory in Amethi. 100 percent localisation of these rifles will be achieved by the time 120,000 rifles have been manufactured in Korwa. The Infantry will also shortly be getting new carbines to replace the outdated and ageing 9mm British Sterling 1A1 submachine guns. This will give the infantry an edge in close quarter battle situations. In addition, there has been a quantum improvement in terms of grenades issued to the infantry, as also in the quality of battalion support weapons which are now held by the Infantry, especially in terms of mines and anti tank weapons.

Mobility is a prime requirement of the Infantry. Strategic mobility is now available to transport the Infantry, with the Indian Air Force procuring the C-130J Super Hercules transport aircraft. For tactical mobility, we have the CH-47F Chinook heavy-lift helicopter that is among the heaviest lifting Western helicopters. In a big boost to Atmanirbharta in defence, the Light Combat Helicopter (LCH), designed and developed by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) has been formally inducted into the Indian Air Force (and has been named as “Prachanda”. This will also provide invaluable close air support to the Infantry in conventional operations.

But perhaps the greatest transformation has taken place in the field of information superiority. Capability has been enhanced in intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance (ISTAR) systems. There is also enhanced capability in C4 (command, control, communications and computers) systems to facilitate better decision-making, planning and execution of operations. The Infantry has been greatly enabled in all these aspects over the last decade. India now has the Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS), with an operational name of NavIC (acronym for 'Navigation with Indian Constellation). This is an autonomous regional satellite navigation system that provides accurate real-time positioning and timing services which covers not just India, but an area extending over 1,500 kilometres from India's borders. Enhanced situational awareness will greatly facilitate commanders in the conduct of operations.

In the transformation process, the infantry is also moving towards greater use of unmanned systems. Unmanned aerial vehicles/ combat aerial vehicles (UAVs/UCAVs), as also unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) are being used for reconnaissance, intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and destruction.

Human Resource Development

The Infantry continues to stress on building the ethos and mental and physical toughness required for the modern battlefield environment. We now have a new system of recruitment for the Army called the Agnipath Scheme. While the scheme has just started, it will have certain teething problems which the Armed Forces will address as the time goes by. But it will lead to the Infantry having a younger age profile and more importantly, only the best of the lot being retained. For the Infantry, this will be a major game changer. But, it must be understood that, at the basic level, the stress on the regimental ethos and emphasis on physical fitness, field and battle craft, and good shooting standards will remain. The coming decades would see the infantry soldier as more of a sensor or a caller for effect than the deliverer of firepower through individual or crew served weapons. The Agnipath scheme will ensure that the soldier has the requisite ability to come up to the requirements of what is required in the future battlefield.

Conclusion

While transformation of the Infantry is taking place apace, it must be remembered that transformation is both about training soldiers to the requisite degree and also about equipping the soldier with the best weapons and equipment. While maintaining and further enhancing the tenets and ethos of the infantry, the need is to exploit technology and adapt to changing circumstances to defeat the enemy in battle. The Indian Army and the Infantry are well set to meet all operational requirements and will continue to strive to maintain the edge over its enemies in battle. 

Published in Organiser - Jan 2023

CELEBRATING ARMY DAY

 CELEBRATING ARMY DAY

On 15 January 1949, Lt Gen (Later Field Marshal) Kodandera Madappa Cariappa was appointed as the Commander in Chief of the Indian Army. He was the first Indian Army Officer to be so appointed. Subsequently, 15 January was chosen to be celebrated as Army Day, as it marked an epochal moment in the history of the Indian Army.

When India achieved independence and was split on religious grounds into two countries, the erstwhile British Indian Army was also split into the Indian Army and the Pakistan Army. What was strange about this arrangement was that both the armies had British officers as their Commanders in Chief! The command of the Pakistan Army devolved on General Sir Frank Walter Messervy, who served as the First Commander-in-Chief of Pakistan Army from 15 August 1947 to 10 February 1948. He was succeeded by another British officer, General Sir Douglas David Gracey, who served till 16 January 1951 and was the last British Commander in Chief of the Pakistan Army.

In India, the story was not too different. The command of the Indian Army devolved on General Sir Robert McGregor Macdonald Lockhart, who served as the Commander in Chief from 15 August 1947 till 31 December 1947. He was succeeded by General Sir Francis Robert Roy Bucher, who served as the Commander in Chief of the Indian Army till 14 January 1950. Next day, with the appointment of Lt Gen Cariappa as the Commander in Chief, India finally had an Army Chief from amongst its own people.

The first India-Pakistan war which began in October 1947 and continued till 1948 was thus fought by two armies, both of which had British officers as their Commanders-in-Chief! This surely must count as a first in the annals of military history. Another first was a conversation that took place between General Lockhart and Prime Minister Nehru, soon after India achieved independence. When Lockhart went to Nehru asking for a strategic directive on the defence policy, Nehru took one look at his paper and blew his top. 'Rubbish! Total rubbish!' he shouted. 'We don't need a defence plan. Our policy is ahimsa (non-violence). We foresee no military threats. Scrap the army! The police are good enough to meet our security needs'." The First India-Pakistan War which started later in October 1947 paid put to any such thought, which in hindsight appears fortuitous.

The Indian Army has since then, acquitted itself creditably in defending the nation, be it from external aggression or internal disorder. Saving the state of Jammu and Kashmir from the Pakistani marauders was done under extremely adverse circumstances. The declaration of a UN sponsored ceasefire stopped the first war which the Indian Army was engaged in, but there are many who believe that had the war continued, India could have wrested back the entire state of J&K from Pakistan. That of course is a matter for a separate debate. In September 1948, the Indian Army, in a swift operation codenamed Operation Polo, forced the surrender of the Nizam's forces commanded by a Hashemite Arab officer, Major General El Edroos, with El Adroos surrendering to Major General (Later General) JN Chaudhuri of the Indian Army. The Indian Army was also used to liberate Goa, Daman and Diu in 1961, thus eliminating the last vestiges of foreign rule from Indian shores. 

The India-China war of 1962 marked a low in the Army's history, but the causative factors that led to the debacle were political. Within three years, India's Armed Forces successfully thwarted Pakistani aggression for the second time, rendering void Pakistan's dream of annexing Kashmir. This was followed in 1971 by the Liberation of Bangladesh, which resulted in the break-up of Pakistan and the emergence of India as a power of consequence in world affairs. But Pakistan continued with its perfidy and yet again attempted to change the status quo by infiltrating troops across the Kargil heights. There too, they were outplayed, and were forced to beat a humiliating retreat.

Against China, the Indian Army retrieved its respect in the clashes which occurred in Nathu La and Cho La from 1-14 September 1967, when Indian troops drove back Chinese forces. Chinese aggression was again repulsed in Sumdorung Chu in the Tawang Sector, in the stand off which took place between Indian and Chinese troops in 1986-87. The Chinese were resisted in Doklam in 2017, in Galwan in Eastern Ladakh in June 2020, and more recently, in Yangtse in Eastern Ladakh in December 2022. While tension still prevails across the LAC with China, the Indian Army remains suitably poised to give a befitting response to any Chinese aggression.

On the internal front, the Army has contributed in a major way in bringing peace and tranquility to violence affected regions in Northeast India, in quelling the decade long Punjab insurgency from the mid 1980s to mid 1990s and in bringing peace and stability to Jammu and Kashmir. Today, the Army is moving forward in its modernisation thrust, which will change the face of the Army by 2030. As per Army Chief, General Manoj Pande, the current equipment profile of the Army has 45% ‘vintage’ equipment,  41% ‘current’ equipment & 14% ‘state-of-the-art' equipment. This by itself is a huge improvement over what existed in 2014. But even this is set to further improve to close to 35% ‘current’ & 44% ‘state-of-the-art’ equipment by 2030, making the Army a credible instrument of deterrence. 2023, stated the Army Chief, will be a year of transformation.

In terms of manpower, the Agnipath scheme has been started which will give the Army a younger age profile as well as the option to retain only the best among the recruits. A well motivated, well equipped and well led Army is the need of the times and the Indian Army is well set to defend the country against all threats. Today, the Indian Army will is transforming into a future ready, technology driven, lethal and agile force. On this occasion, we pay our tributes to those who defend the motherland and also pay remembrance to all those who have sacrificed their lives for the defence of India as also to the veteran community for their sacrifices over the years.

PUBLISHED IN CHINTAN - 15 JAN 2023

India's Preparedness in the Age of Information Warfare

 India's Preparedness in the Age of Information Warfare

Thank you for the very warm introduction, Prof Pramod Kumar,

Prof Sanjay Dwivedi, DG, IIMC, members of the IIMC faculty, friends.

Namaskar

I am very happy to be here this afternoon to share my thoughts on this very interesting subject. I will give you my perspective on the challenges which we face today as far as information warfare is concerned and how best we can deal with those challenges.

But let me begin with greeting all of you on the occasion of Vijay Divas. On this day, 51 years ago, the Indian Armed Forces and the Indian nation won for itself the biggest victory in the last one thousand years when, in a swift 13 day operation, the Liberation War was brought to a successful conclusion, culminating with the surrender of 93,000 soldiers from the Pakistan military - the largest military surrender after the second world war.

The war was necessitated due to the brutal repression of the Bengali population by the Pakistan army in a crackdown called Operation Searchlight, which began on 25 March 1971. Innocent men, women and children were taken out of their homes and shot, the orgy of killing, rape and loot continuing for months on end till the Indian Armed Forces, along with the Mukti Bahini intervened militarily on 3 December and in a swift 13-day war, forced the Pakistani military to unconditionally surrender. 16 December is commemorated as Vijay Divas since then, to pay homage to the gallant soldiers of the Indian Armed Forces and the Mukti Bahini who fought for freedom, and for all those who laid down their lives for the cause. On this auspicious occasion, I join all people from both India and Bangladesh, in paying homage to all those who fought for freedom and who laid down their lives for the cause. Such commemoration is also important to keep alive the memory of what brutal regimes can do and to ensure that such history is never repeated again.

Why do genocides happen? Why is it that in some conflicts, there is a failure to account for the crimes of sexual violence against women? A look into recent history in South Asia is revealing. There is little mention made of genocides and sexual abuse of women in war, which is why there is so little knowledge available in the public domain of this dark side of history. it is precisely because of a lack of accountability that genocides have occurred in the past and will continue to occur in the future too. Denial of information and putting forth an alternative narrative has much to do with the way events are perceived across the world. That is why, all those who profess to be the staunchest defenders of democracy across the world, remained chillingly silent on the genocide that took place in Bangladesh in 1971. It suited their national interest to do so. Post the Liberation war, Pakistani military officers were not tried for genocide. This gave an impression to Pakistan that India is a soft state. Perhaps, that was the reason that the Genocide of the Kashmiri Hindus took place in 1989-90. And as the perpetrators of the Kashmiri genocide are still at large, are we looking at another genocide taking place in India, at some time in the not too distant future? That is something we need to ponder about.

Now, coming down to the subject proper. 

Information has always been used as a tool of war since ancient times. Here, the story in the Mahabharata of how the great sage warrior Drona was killed is instructive. When informed that Aswatthama is dead, Drona thought that it was his son who had been killed in battle, though in reality it was an elephant by that name. Drona became despondent and in that moment of weakness he was killed. This brings out two important aspects of Information Warfare. One, the art of deception and two, the psychological impact of information on the mind. 

Protecting own information means and attacking those of the enemy are part of standard military operations. The third prong is deception. In modern times, the rapid growth of information technology has led to the empowerment of the individual as never before, with information being available at the click of button. The advent of the social media is truly empowering but comes with a lot of negative fallouts also. This has led now to the fourth pillar of information warfare, wherein we can shape the perceptions and attitudes of a large body of people using information as a tool. 

How do we protect our information systems? In the cyber domain, information travels from satellites to ground stations and thence to servers across the country and across the world. Satellites provide geo-mapping of the world, information about the weather and terrain, enable long distance communication and impact on every aspect of our life today, from education to entertainment to business and any thing else we can presently conceive. Disrupting these links can be very damaging for a country and can bring down a country's banking sector, or the rail and air networks, water supply and a host of other facilities. Recently, we had the servers of the AIIMS being hacked and the hackers demanded a ransom to restore the system. A few years ago we have seen how Stuxnet, a malicious computer worm, damaged the centrifuges that Iran  was using to enrich uranium as part of its nuclear programme. Both in peace and war, the enemy will use all means at its disposal to gain information about us and these are not necessarily military targets but civilian targets as well. War then, is no longer confined to the front lines. Information operations hence will take place over our land territory, water ways, Islands and sea coasts, and space and outer space. The first attack by an enemy will most likely be in the cyber domain where we could see an attack taking place on a civilian target. It could be the Mumbai stock exchange! Or on any of our vital economic assets. Off course military assets too will be targeted, especially communication nodes, but future war will be all encompassing and will include both civilian and military targets, in which the enemy will use both hard kill and soft kill options. As an example, the physical destruction of a satellite or earth stations would be part of the hard kill, whereas making systems unusable through non-kinetic means would form part of the soft kill options.

Protection obviously involves hardening our systems and creating adequate redundancies. It also includes deterrence. Towards that end, India successfully conducted an anti-satellite (ASAT) test on March 27, 2019, which was announced to the world by Prime Minister Modi in a televised address. In this test, a ballistic missile defense interceptor, the Prithvi Delivery Vehicle Mark-II (PDV MK-II), developed by the DRDO struck and destroyed an Indian Microsat-R satellite in a flight that lasted just over half a minute. This test, called Mission Shakti, was a counter to China's ASAT test conducted in 2007. Krishnaswamy Kasturirangan, ISRO’s chairman from 1994 to 2003, summarized New Delhi’s concerns succinctly in September 2009, “India has spent a huge sum to develop its capabilities and place assets in space. Hence, it becomes necessary to protect them from adversaries. There is a need to look at means of securing these.” Mission Shakti was a step in that direction. 

The test carried out yesterday of  the long-range “Agni-5” intercontinental nuclear-capable ballistic missile, was also expected to strengthen India's deterrence capability against China. All this signals capability and is part of information warfare to promote deterrence. It only works when there is real capability and not just empty threats. India's information systems are thus reasonably well protected, though off course protection involves being constantly on the watch out, checking and improving on own systems to ensure that they are safe from hostile attacks. Eternal vigilance is the price we have to continue to pay to remain secure.

The other aspect of information warfare is attacking enemy information systems. Such capabilities are kept under wraps and are seldom discussed in the open domain. It is hoped that India has the capability to monitor enemy systems and to bring them down if necessary. That would add to deterrence capability.

At this stage I would like to address the fourth prong of information warfare - shaping attitudes and perceptions of target populations, both of the home audience and abroad. India's performance here has been a mixed bag, but that is true for all countries, even those having huge resources such as the US and China. 

A rough audit check of India's success or otherwise in shaping the information environment indicates that we have been reasonably successful in having a broad acceptance of India's concerns to the international audience especially on issues related to terrorism. The performance as far as the domestic audience is more nuanced. The challenge really lies in the fact that individuals today are really empowered, even those living at the lower end of the economic spectrum carry. They carry out digital financial transactions with consummate ease, converse in social groups such as FaceBook and WhatsApp and are reasonably well informed of current happenings in their immediate neighbourhood as well as on issues which impact the country. 

The benefits of digitisation are immense especially in the field of governance. However, just as the smart phone and the internet have empowered the individual, the ubiquitous nature of information technology has also thrown up a range of opportunities for their misuse through disinformation, distortion of the truth, false flag operations, spoofing, spam mail, and the like, to create divisions and turmoil within society. 

The Information Environment (IE) is truly global in nature, with information flows cutting across physical and artificial boundaries and impacting all segments of society. This is both enabling as well as has potential for misuse. The wide range and diversity of actors in the global IE has great aggregate influence, much akin to that of a state and more often, even far in excess of what the modern state exercises. Non-state actors have also made their presence felt and seek to create influence in furtherance of their objectives. Towards this end, influencers are used, who unwittingly or otherwise lend their name to a social cause or movement, sometimes unknowing of the real intent of the provocateurs and at others, because of monetary inducement or being ideologically aligned to the cause. Non-state actors also use the media and exploit advances made in information communication technology to undermine governments and exert influence in furtherance of their aims.

An example of the above is the efforts made by interested groups to undermine the BJP led NDA government ever since it won the Lok Sabha elections in 2014. A concerted campaign was launched by motivated groups in the months following the 2014 elections to showcase India as an intolerant nation. Here, an attempt was made to create religious discord by highlighting certain isolated incidences of vandalism that had taken places in churches as deliberate targeted attacks, when in fact they were nothing more than cases of petty theft, the likes of which were routine and had taken place in earlier years too. When viewed holistically with data analysis over the past ten years, there was no upward spiral of such cases, as alleged. Such incidents had also happened with Hindu places of worship but that fact was glossed over. By the time the truth finally came out, India's image stood tarnished, with even the then US President, Mr Barack Obama, who had come to India as the Chief Guest for the 2015 Republic Day Parade, making remarks on 'religious intolerance' and repeating the same on his return to Washington. The vicious attacks against India were motivated and designed to pressure India on its foreign policy and domestic policy options, with religious intolerance being used as a tool to make India conform to Western dictates.

The subsequent years saw protests on various issues, fanned by interested groups exploiting the social, audio-visual and print media. The year 2016 witnessed a series of agitations by student groups, who shouted slogans in support of a terrorist who was convicted for his role in the attack on India's Parliament in 2001 and who was executed in 2013! The agitating students, supported by left wing and islamist groups, raised slogans seeking the break up of India and calling the act of execution of the convicted terrorist an act of murder. Similar agitations continued on various pretexts over the next two years. Then in 2019 there were huge protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) which brought parts of the nation's capital to a standstill, peaking in February 2020, to tarnish the nation's image when US President Donald Trump was visiting India. And in September 2020, massive protests broke out against the three farm laws passed by Parliament, which peaked during the Republic Day celebrations in 2021. In all these protests there was a hidden agenda of undermining the elected Indian government, India's democratic framework as well as India's composite cultural ethos. Information was weaponised and used to draw crowds to disrupt normal life. This remains part of the agenda of external forces to exacerbate internal issues and fault lines. In this, segments of the opposition parties within India lend a helping hand in their bid to get back to power. In the end, it is the people of India who suffer.

The desire to shape opinions remains the key motivator for organising mass movements against the elected government. This suits the agenda of foreign powers who view India's rise as a potential threat to their economic interests. It is therefore incumbent on the state to preempt hostile agendas by anticipating what disruptors might do and taking preventive action well in time. This can be done by shaping public perceptions through a long-term vision and with strategic patience.

We need to look into potential future flashpoints and have systems in place to address the concerns of the public. Narrative building and propagation with thus be essential to avoid social upheaval which can negatively impact India. Suitable narratives which are gender neutral and religion and caste neutral need to be propagated to get wide acceptance from all segments of society and to change behaviour patterns. A proactive stance in shaping perceptions will go a long way in reducing friction and in addressing societal fault lines to prevent internal and external hostile forces from creating disruptions in society. This assumes importance as the spotlight will be on India for the coming year, when it takes on the Presidency of the G20 this December.

Talk - Virtual- 16 Dec 2022

Book Review RUSSIA UKRAINE WAR: THE CONFLICT AND ITS GLOBAL IMPACT

 RUSSIA UKRAINE WAR: THE CONFLICT AND ITS GLOBAL IMPACT

By Ajay Singh

Ukraine became an independent country in 1991, following the break up of the Soviet Union. On 24 February 2022, Russian forces moved into Ukraine, to halt what Moscow perceived to be a deliberate attempt by NATO to continue with its eastward expansion, which could potentially result in Ukraine joining the grouping. That was a red line which Moscow would not allow to be crossed, and was presumably the trigger that led to Russian forces invading Ukraine. But the events leading up to the Russian attack had been brewing since the Orange Revolution of 2004. Ukraine became an area of contestation between the European Union and Russia, which in turn divided the country into two blocs: A pro-European Western Ukraine and a pro-Russia Eastern Ukraine. This tussle led initially to the Orange Revolution, then to the Euromaidan protests of 2014 and finally to the Russian invasion of 2022.

 In 1954, the Russian-populated oblast of Crimea was transferred from the Russian to the Ukrainian Soviet Republic. At that time, since both were part of the Soviet Union, it mattered little, but control of Crimea, which had a 75 percent Russian ethnic majority was vital to the security interests of Russia as its Black Sea Fleet was headquartered there. Following the Euromaidan protests in 2014, Russian forces seized control of the Crimean region on 18 March 2014. In April of that year, fighting broke out between the Ukraine army and pro-Ukraine forces on one side against those supporting an independent Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LPR), which had been self-proclaimed in April 2014. That conflict, since then has led to thousands of people being killed and over a million being internally displaced. 

The Minsk accords, first agreed in September 1914 and later revised in February 2015 as Minsk II, could have led to peace and stability but they were violated and the self governance promised to the Donbas region did not come about. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine continued to rise, till on 22 February, Russia formally recognised the DPR and LPR and then two days later, invaded Ukraine. 

Most military observers were of the view that the Russian military would bring the war to a quick closure. Russian aims were initially limited to affect a quick change in regime and instal a government which was not hostile to Russian interests and which would commit Ukraine to not joining NATO. A combination of military ineptness on the part of the Russian military leadership plus the rallying of the people by President Zelensky has seen the war drag on now for over 10 months, with no signs of the conflict coming to an end any time soon. Russia has taken most of the Donbas region, and the Zaporizhzhiya and Kherson oblasts to give it control over the entire northern coastline of the Black Sea bordering Ukraine, less the city of Odessa. This has linked Crimea to the Russian mainland by the land route, passing through Donbas and Zaporizhzhiya, and has secured Russian access to the Atlantic via the Mediterranean  Sea. But at the same time, a fresh set of challenges, which make conflict resolution a distant dream have been thrown up.

For Russia, it would be politically unacceptable to give back what it has gained on the battlefield. Similarly, for Ukraine, the minimum acceptable solution is a return to the status quo. How such irreconcilable positions can be addressed remains to be seen.

This book, "Russia Ukraine War: The Conflict and its Global Impact" delves a bit into history, but for the most part is focussed on the conduct of military operations. The last quarter of the book looks into the geo-political impact of the war and the economic consequences for the world which the war has caused, especially as it comes just when the world was emerging from two years of an economic slowdown caused by the Covid Pandemic. 

How the war has been fought so far has been analysed with clinical professionalism, to include the planning and preparatory phase of operations, followed by the actual conduct of operations by the Russians as well as the counter offensive by Ukraine. The wealth of details brought forth in the book makes it a delight for the military professional to understand various aspects of the war-fighting that has taken place as also, where things went wrong for the Russians in terms of conduct of operations at the operational and tactical levels as also weaknesses at the military leadership level. The host of military and political lessons which the war has thrown up need to be seriously studied, for they have application for India as well as all other militaries and governments across the world.

The last quarter of the book gives out a set of scenarios which could bring about the end game, but the book also looks into the possibility of the war degenerating into a nuclear conflict which could have horrific consequences. The Russia-China convergence has also been covered as has the NATO angle in this war. Importantly, the book looks into the global impact of the war and how this could lead to a new world order. It ends with a well-thought essay on the lessons which India could learn from the war.

The war is not over and doubtless, much of the information about the conduct of operations remains classified and not open to the public. But even so, the book remains an important source document, with a wealth of analysis on different aspects of the war as well as on its geo-political and geo-economic impact. The author, Col Ajay Singh as well as those who contributed to it deserve to be congratulated on taking out this very educative volume. Meticulously researched and impeccably presented, the book is strongly recommended for all those who have an interest in the military and in international relations as also for the lay reader.

Published in IFJ Jan-Feb 2023

Challenges for 2023

India's rise to a USD 10 trillion economy within the next 10 to 15 years has been often spoken off with a great deal of optimism by economists in India and abroad. Now, a recent report by a London-based consultancy, Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), has also reiterated the same. In its report published in December 2022, CEBR states that at a time when the world is moving into recession, India's growth rate over the next decade will average 6.5 percent, propelling India into the USD 10 trillion bracket by 2035 and to third position in global rankings. But there was a cautionary note too. Political factors, the report stated, could hold India back.

It is however, not just political factors which we need to be concerned about. There are social and economic factors too, which could spoil the India growth story. India's rise as an economic power is not something which India's adversaries are taking kindly to. On the contrary, they are doing all in their power to stymie India's growth story. Some western countries too, with whom India shares good relations, are also averse to the idea of an economically strong India which is also moving towards self sufficiency in advanced technology. They see in a growing India, a potential threat to their economic interests. These countries too, would like to see an India which is perpetually dependent on them—an India which perforce plays second fiddle to Western interests.

 

That of course, is not how the story will play out. Leaving aside a black swan event, India's growth story can, at the worst be delayed, not denied. But both India's adversaries as some who are India's friends, have been exploiting internal fault lines within India, to muddy the waters of India's rise. Opposition to India's rise has come in the political, social and economic domain and while India has faced up to these challenges stoically over the last few years, the coming years will, in all likelihood, see a renewed effort on the part of both internal and external agencies to create trouble and fissures within Indian society.

There was consternation in many capitals across the world when the NDA government was sworn in, in 2014, as they felt that the leverage they enjoyed with earlier governments would not be available. On that score they were right. That led to a series of events, orchestrated from within the country, but with huge funds supplied from abroad, to showcase India as an intolerant country. That is why we saw protests erupt in the country, on various issues, but timed for effect, to peak in January, when the eyes of the world would be on India's Republic Day celebrations. These protests ranged in the social sphere from allegations of human rights abuses to intolerance towards religious minorities. In the economic domain, we witnessed protests against Sterlite Copper, the Kundankulam nuclear power plant, the Narmada Dam and many others. In the political domain there were protests against the farm laws and the Uniform Civil Code, which were used to disrupt normal life.

It is likely that some of the protesting groups had genuine concerns about certain government policies. In a vibrant democracy such as exists in India, expressing an alternate point of view is a part of the democratic process. But the methods used to express discontent were uncalled for. It became apparent that the protests were designed to create anarchy and fissures in society through disruption and violence. Many areas were blockaded for months on end in an attempt to shut down parts of the country, but it redounds to the wisdom and maturity of the Indian masses that they did not fall prey to such disruptive tactics and the nation emerged stronger and more united, with a focus on growth. Indeed, since 2014, we have had major reforms in the Indian polity, foremost among them being the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the revocation of the special status given to Jammu and Kashmir through Article 370. 

 

GST unified the country economically, by making provisions for a single tax on the supply of goods and services, right from the manufacturer to the consumer. With its implementation, a variety of earlier indirect taxes, including the value-added tax, service tax, purchase tax, excise duty, and others were done away with, making it easier for business entities. The apprehensions expressed by some who opposed the implementation of the GST have been blown away by the successful implementation of this transformative economic reform. Throughout the current financial year, GST collections have been in excess of Rs 1.4 lakh crore, despite the fact that the Indian economy as well as the world economy was badly impacted by the Covid pandemic in 2020 and 2021. The revocation of the Special Status given to the state of Jammu and Kashmir under Article 370 and the bifurcation of the state into two union territories, Ladakh and Jammu and Kashmir, was perhaps the most important legislation passed since independence. The move was bitterly opposed by certain political groups, but the events on the ground since then have thrown up for the first time, the possibility of peace in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir after over three decades of violence and bloodshed. These and many other reforms such as the abolition of instant triple talaq were vigorously opposed by certain interest groups, but were the need of the hour. 

But many more important legislations are required, to truly reflect a vibrant, secular and democratic India. As we enter 2023, we need to anticipate the opposition that the reforms process will generate in certain quarters and through positive narrative building, prevent disruptive elements within society to hold the country to ransom. Reforms are required on many sensitive issues such as the Waqf Act, which was first passed by Parliament in 1954 and which was subsequently repealed, only to be replaced by a new Waqf Act in 1995 which gave it extraordinary powers, not in consonance with the Indian Constitution. Other issues pertain to the control of many Hindu temples by the government, which is against the very concept of a secular state. Protecting the rights of Muslim women needs reform on issues such as polygamy, wearing of hijab, the practise of nikah halala as also of equal rights in inheritance. This will have to be undertaken through the legislative process as it will not be forthcoming from within Muslim society and will find resonance when the issue of adopting a Uniform Civil Code comes up. 

With the general elections due in the first half of 2024, there will be attempts made to oppose political, social and economic reforms in the year ahead. How these issues are handled will define the nature of Indian polity over the coming decade and will determine how soon India achieves its ambition of becoming a USD 10 trillion economy.

Editorial IFJ- Jan Feb 2023