Towards a Comprehensive Security Architecture

Introduction

Every nation needs a capable military to protect both its sovereignty as well as its economic and other vital interests. A strong military is a deterrent to conflict, and only through the overall ambit of such protection, can a nation peacefully pursue its development agenda. History bears testimony to the fact that great civilisations flourished when they had the protection of a strong army. When military power waned, the state withered away. The invasion of Sindh in 711 CE by Muḥammad bin Qāsim, an Arab military commander of the Umayyad Caliphate is an apt example. After defeating Raja Dahir, the ruler of Sindh, Qasim established for the first time, Muslim  rule in a part of India. Other invasions followed over the course of the next thousand years, till the arrival of the British and other western powers. We can never allow that to happen again.

From ancient times, military capability has been a sum total of well trained and equipped soldiers with a sound organisational structure, good fighting doctrines and possessing superior technological capability. The same is true today. As an example, in ancient times, elephants were used to fulfil a variety of military functions. Generally, elephants were used for their routing ability, being able to get rid of enemy soldiers with one sweep, and also in scaring the enemy horse cavalry and for trampling chariots. The shock and awe effect was psychological, a function performed today by tanks and armoured personal carriers, artillery, missiles and fighter aircraft. The advent of the horse provided mobility to the battlefield, which became a lethal weapon system when the riders were equipped with swords or mounted as archers. Battlefield communication was done by visual signalling, flags and runners, who carried messages during the battle. Fundamentally, the principles of war which were true for those days, remain true today. It is the means of warfare which have changed, providing advantage to the side that is mobile, has better battlefield transparency, precision long-range weapon systems, good and secure communications and well equipped and trained soldiers.

Technology and its adaptation has shaped the outcomes of wars since ancient times. But it was only in the nineteenth century that gigantic leaps in technological developments started taking place. The machine gun invented by Hiram Maxim was used in the Boer War and the Spanish American War. The machine gun became notorious  for the deadly manner it was used by European powers in their pursuit of colonies. Used extensively in both the World Wars, they machine gun is now a standard weapon in the armies of all nations. Likewise, the British invented the tank during World War I to provide troops with mobile protection and firepower. They were used for the first time in the Battle of Flers-Courcelette on 15 September 1916. Since then, the tank has become a sophisticated and powerful tool of war. The first successful flying machine was invented in 1903 by the Wright Brothers. Today, the widespread use of both fixed and rotary wing aircraft to control the airspace is vital for observation, reconnaissance, air to air combat and for engaging ground and maritime targets. In recent times, the Gulf wars and the US war in Afghanistan has brought home to the world the power which long-range precision weapon systems bring to the battlefield. This, combined with advances made in communication technology, has given rise to what came to be known as the Revolution in Military Affairs. But technology, though a major war-winning factor, cannot by itself win wars. The US, despite its superiority, could not subdue the Taliban in Afghanistan. The Gulf wars too, have still not come to any conclusion. When fighting battles far from one's shores, different geo-political and geo-strategic factors come into play. There is also a need for boots on the ground for successful mission accomplishment. A strong and capable Armed Force is hence a sum of multiple factors, to include political will, speedy decision making, training and morale of troops, sound organisational structures, war fighting doctrines and exploitation of technology. All this must be supported by a strong military industrial complex within the country.

Securing the National Interest

Broadly, the term National Interest (NI) refers to protecting and defending a nation's physical, political and cultural identity. In specific terms, it means, preserving one, the territorial integrity of the state, two, the existing politico-economic structure and three, the nation-states’ cultural ethos and traditions. Post World War I, US President Woodrow Wilson, while formulating US foreign policy,  drew upon the work of scholars and philosophers like Sir Alfred Zimmer, Nicholas Murray Butler. The effort was essentially Utopian in concept and was dedicated to promoting a more peaceful world. American foreign policy took on a more realistic hue, post World War II, 

Post the Second World War, American foreign policy was driven by a sense of realism, promoted by the work of authors such as Hans J. Morgenthau, Reinhold Niebuhr and others. Morgenthau was a German-American jurist and political scientist, considered one of the "founding fathers" of the realist school in the 20th century, who propagated the role of the nation state in international relations, viewing the same as primarily concerned with the study of power. Niebuhr was a theologian, whose work looked at “Christian Realism, ” laying stress on egoism and the pride and hypocrisy of nations and classes. In India, however, the political leadership formulated foreign policy sans an institutionalised doctrinal approach. Consequently, India’s national security policy-making process too were neither institutionalised, nor was the role of stakeholders incorporated and defined. India's foreign policy formulations remained personality driven and highly individualistic. 

In 1995, Shri Jaswant Singh referred to the 'operational directive,' as the document which brought out the threat assessment to India. This was formulated by the three Services, the Ministry of External Affairs, the Home Ministry and the Prime Minister's office and finally approved by the Defence Minister. Jaswant Singh stated that the document required considerable change because of the enormous changes that have taken place in India since 1947. This statement by Shri Jaswant Singh, who has served as India's Defence Minister as well as External Affairs Minister, was telling and indicative. No surprise then, that George Tanham came to the conclusion that India's political elites lacked a strategic mindset. Tanham however, had little understanding of India's civilisational ethos and history. It was ancient India's Sanskrit treatise on statecraft, Kautilya's Arthashastra, which spoke of political science, economic policy and military strategy—a veritable treatise on the science of governance. Similar reference is found in Hindu Scriptures—the Mahabharata and the Ramayana, Hitopadesa, Manu Smriti, Bhagavatam Purana and others. Statecraft finds prominent mention in all of them. India had a strategic culture, which enabled it to be leading nation in the world for millennia.  We need to get back to our roots and reclaim our heritage.

Much however has changed since 2014, when the BJP led NDA government was swept to power with an overwhelming majority. The objectives of India’s National Security were clearly defined to include, one, national stability and integrity; two, social, political and economic progress; and three, global peace and stability. India’s national security as an essential component to securitise its national interest must be seen in terms of these larger goals. The Modi led NDA government, when it assumed power in 2014, started the process to achieve this, led by the Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi. India's foreign policy is consequently now seen to be more bold, proactive, innovative and ambitious—a policy that will not compromise on the nation's integrity and honour. The era of reticence is over. The era of proactive engagement has begun. We now see a greater engagement with India's diaspora, renewed emphasis on building relations in the neighbourhood, cooperation in the field of counter terrorism, renewed economic vigour and emphasis on physical and cultural connectivity.

Countering Chinese Belligerence

The India-China relationship remains strained, the unresolved border issue being the major irritant. China refuses to recognise the legal status of the McMahon Line and consequently, besides being in illegal occupation of the Aksai Chin plateau in Ladakh, China now also lays claim to India's Arunachal Pradesh. Within Tibet, China has concentrated on upgrading infrastructure which has a distinct military bias, enhancing Chinese military capability and in the process, posing an exponential military threat to India. 

Chinese transgressions across the undemarcated Line of Actual Control (LAC) have been a constant feature for many decades. Since 2014 however, such transgressions are being responded to with an element of firmness which was not displayed earlier. For example, in 2017, when the Chinese PLA transgressed in Doklam, a tri-junction between Bhutan, India and China, India responded with a matching response. The stand off continued for 70 days, during which time the Chinese state-controlled media as well as spokespersons of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) resorted to issuing statements threatening India. Indiai however refused to budge and Chinese PLA personnel finally had to move back. The clash in Galwan in June 2020 was the first incident which led to a loss of lives on both sides. The face-off continues till date, with both India and China enhancing the force levels in the area. Once again, China tried to intimidate India, but received a firm response, displaying the strength of India's political and military leadership. India also took, for the first time, certain economic measures against China, banning over 320 Chinese apps over security considerations as well as taking action on other fronts. 

As a part of its overall effort to counter China across the Himalayas, a huge push has been given to infrastructure development, both in Arunachal Pradesh and in Ladakh. Key infrastructure development projects includes the construction of roads, tunnels, bridges and airfields. One of these projects is the strategically important 300 km long Nimmu-Padum-Darcha road between Himachal Pradesh and Ladakh. This is an all weather road nearing completion and will provide all year connectivity to Ladakh as also an alternate axis to the Leh-Manali Highway. On the Manali-Leh axis, the Rohtang Pass lying on the eastern end of the Pir Panel range, connects the Kulu Valley with the Lahaul and Spiti Valleys. This remains closed for about four months in a year due to heavy snowfall in winter. Now, a 9 km long tunnel has been constructed under the Rohtang Pass, to provide year-long connectivity to the region. This tunnel, named the Atal Tunnel was inaugurated by Prime Minister Modi on 3 October 2020. Many such projects are coming up all across the border to provide strategic mobility to the military throughout the year. The Border Roads Organisation (BRO) which is responsible for these projects was allotted Rs 3500 crore for FY 2022-23 - a record increase of 40 percent over the Rs 2500 crore allowed in FY 2021-22. This is a reaffirmation of the Modi Government's resolve to focus on border development to enable speedy mobilisation of the Armed Forces to strategically important sectors, further bolstering the security environment.

India's space capability will also play a major role in countering Chinese actions. In the event of hostilities breaking out with China, the key to victory for either side will lie in information dominance, battlefield transparency and air superiority. Inter alia, both sides will leverage space to get that edge. Space is thus, the final frontier. The criticality for India will lie in monitoring in real time, Chinese troop movement, build up of artillery and logistic nodes, command and control centres, missile bases and aerial assets. This would require continuous satellite coverage over the Tibetan plateau, for which India would need adequate satellites of its own or leveraging information from satellites of friendly partner countries. Towards that end, India's space capabilities are also being enhanced to take on any threat. 

The Pakistan Factor

Pakistan has been hostile to India since independence. Ideological and other differences have led to four wars with India. Pakistan continues to support terrorist activity within India, using terrorism as an in instrument of its foreign policy. The interests of both Beijing and Islamabad converge when it comes to dealing with New Delhi and for long, Beijing has been using Pakistan to contain India. Besides cross border terrorism, it is the nuclear, missile and military hardware nexus between China and Pakistan that is of concern to India. India is thus geographically placed between two hostile neighbours, both of whom are nuclear armed, which imposes its own security dynamic on India. 

At the economic level, the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is a part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), connects China’s Xinjiang province to Gwadar in Balochistan, Pakistan. CPEC consists of two major projects. One, the development of Gwadar port and the other a construction of a road, rail, pipeline and optical fibre corridor, between Gwadar and Xinjiang province. China has invested more than USD 55 billion in infrastructure development and energy sector but the CPEC continues to face many hurdles in terms of financial constraints and security concerns due to a host of internal security problems within Pakistan. Since 1948, the Baloch people have been engaged in freedom struggle which the Pakistani establishment has not been able to suppress. While Baloch freedom fighters target Pakistan's security forces, they also consider Chinese workers in Pakistan as legitimate targets. The TTP (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan), an umbrella group of a number of militant organisations based on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border also pose a serious security threat to Pakistan. They seek Islamic law in the country and pose a threat to the Pakistan military as well as to the CPEC. As the CPEC lies along militant infested area, there are huge costs involved in protecting the same. In the prevailing circumstances, it is unlikely to be operational in the near to mid term. India opposes the CPEC as it passes through Gilgit-Baltistan, which is illegally occupied by Pakistan.

India's response to Pakistan backed terror activity in India was reactive for many years. This changed under the Modi government, with the government calling out the Pakistan nuclear bluff and carrying out a surgical strike on 29 September 2016 against terrorist bases across the Line of Control and then again, in an air strike which destroyed a base of a terrorist organisation, Jaish-e-Mohammad, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, once again calling out the Pakistani nuclear bluff. The messaging in both these attacks was important. It conveyed the will of the Indian State to protect its security interests by hitting out at targets far from its shores. The abrogation of the Special Status given to J&K by Article 370 and 35 A on 5 August 2019 has further reduced Pakistan's ability to support terrorist operations in India, though such support still continues, albeit on a far lower scale than hither to fore. 

India's assertive policy in taking on the threat from Pakistan supported cross-border terrorism, has led to a reduction in levels of violence in J&K, though much work still remains to be done for total normalcy to return. Pressure at the political, diplomatic and military level being applied against Pakistan is yielding results, but would require to be vigorously continued with till such time as Pakistan abandons its policy of using terrorism as an instrument of state policy and hands back to India, the territory that it has illegally acquired. India's focus therefore, over the next decade, must be on recovering lost territories through political, diplomatic and if necessary, military means. 

The Indian Ocean Region

India's location in the Indian Ocean gives it great importance as a maritime power. While India’s focus since indolence has been based on its land borders, due to the necessity of dealing with two hostile neighbours, the focus now is increasingly on exploiting India's maritime resources. India's neighbourhood first policy has seen a distinct push towards improving relations with West Asia to secure energy supplies and to support the Indian diaspora working in these regions and with South East Asia to expand trade through the Act East policy. This marks a shift from a more militarised continental approach towards an economically focussed strategy for the region.

Prime Minister Modi enunciated his vision for the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) when he spoke of SAGAR, an acronym for Security And Growth for All in the Region. Further, he defined India's area of interest as stretching from the East Coast of Africa to the West coast of the USA, marking the Indo-Pacific as a new domain in India’s foreign policy engagements, thus  marking a shift in New Delhi’s strategic environment. Now, besides a focus on its continental borders, India is looking increasingly at its maritime space.

India's emphasis in the IOR is focussed on trade and freedom of navigation. As trade is an important component of India's economic growth, India's interests lie in keeping the sea lanes of communication, safe and secure. This would be the challenge for India in the coming years. Chinese belligerence in the South China Sea and the increasing presence of the PLA Navy (PLAN) in the IOR poses challenges to India and would require further strengthening of India's naval capability. India would need to look into indigenous manufacture of another aircraft carrier, as well as strengthening its submarine fleet. The Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) grouping of India, Australia, Japan and the United States has seen a tremendous fillip over the last few years with annual summit level meetings and periodic meeting between the defence and foreign ministers of the respective countries. The Quad as of now is an informal strategic grouping, which works for a free, open, prosperous and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. The coming years is likely to see the Quad expanding to what can be termed as the 'Quad plus', to counter possible Chinese aggressive moves. It would also see a deepening of economic, diplomatic and military ties amongst the member countries. 

Enhancing Military Power

A major initiative to enhance India's military power is a focus on indigenisation, through the 'Atma Nirbhar Bharat' push in defence production capability. India has been one of the world's largest importers of weapons and this is now set to change with emphasis being laid on restricting imports and on Make in India. Two defence Corridors have come up-one in Tamil Nadu and the other in Uttar Pradesh. Investments of Rs 20,000 crore have been envisaged in these corridors by the year 2024 by public as well private sector companies. When fully functional, these will facilitate production of indigenous military hardware, making India a major defence manufacturing hub in the world. 

The role of the public sector in defence production has also been streamlined. The erstwhile Ordnance Factory Board has been dissolved and in its place, seven new Defence Public Sector Undertakings have been carved out. This would provide much need accountability in the system, enhance speedy decision making and lead to greater user satisfaction in terms of timely delivery of weapons and equipment with appropriate quality control.

Another important initiative has been in providing a greater role to the private sector in defence production. This is significant as earlier, the Defence Industry sector was reserved for the public sector. A slew of measures taken over the last few years is the revision of DPP-2016. This has been revised to Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP)- 2020, which is driven by the tenets of Defence Reforms announced as part of ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan’. In the Capital Acquisition Budget, the major share now goes for domestic capital procurement. In addition, in order to promote indigenous design and development of defence equipment ‘Buy {Indian-IDDM (Indigenously Designed, Developed and Manufactured)}’ category has been accorded top most priority for procurement of capital equipment. We now also have a positive indigenisation list, for which there will be an embargo on the import beyond the timeline indicated against them. This would offer a great opportunity to the Indian defence industry to manufacture these items using their own design and development capabilities to meet the requirements of the Armed Forces in the coming years.

The ‘Make’ Procedure of capital procurement has also been simplified. There is a provision for funding up to 70% of development cost by the Government to Indian industry under Make-I category. In addition, there are specific reservations for MSMEs under the ‘Make’ procedure. Procedure for ‘Make-II’ category (Industry funded), introduced in DPP 2016 to encourage indigenous development and manufacture of defence equipment has number of industry friendly provisions such as relaxation of eligibility criterion, minimal documentation, provision for considering proposals suggested by industry/individual etc. FDI in Defence Sector has been enhanced up to 74% through the Automatic Route for companies seeking new defence industrial license and up to 100% by Government Route wherever it is likely to result in access to modern technology or for other reasons to be recorded.

Another major initiative is opening up the defence sector for exports. This is a marked shift from earlier policies which were reticent on this front. Prime Minister Modi has set up a target of achieving USD 5 billion in defence exports by 2025, which most likely will be surpassed. India has started export of the Brahmos missile to Philippines with the BrahMos Aerospace Chairman Atul D Rane stating that they are hopeful of more such orders and that the BrahMos Aerospace will by itself be able to achieve the target set by the Prime Minister. With India now manufacturing its own Aircraft Carrier, indigenous Tejas fighter jets and helicopters, artillery pieces and a host of other advanced weapon systems, the field of exports appears bright. More importantly, this will help make India's defence industrial base more robust, decrease dependence on imports, provide jobs for the Indian work force, give a fillip to the economy and lead to India becoming Atma Nirbhar in defence capability. 

In terms of organisational structures, the creation of the post of the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) was a much needed reform. Announced by PM Modi on 15 August 2019, Gen Bipin Rawat was later appointed as India's first CDS on 1 January 2020. The CDS acts as the Principal Military Adviser to the Defence Minister on tri-Service matters. He is a member of the Defence Acquisition Council and Defence Planning Committee, and also heads all specialised triservice divisions, special operations, cyber and space commands.

Another important reform has taken place in the recruitment of soldiers, the scheme of which was announced by the Ministry of Defence. Called Agnipath, it envisages the enrolment of selected candidates in the Armed Forces for a period of four years, after which these soldiers will go back to civil society as disciplined, dynamic, motivated and skilled work force, with 25 percent being retained in the Service. The aim is to maintain a youthful profile of the Armed Forces and to attract young talent from society to effectively exploit, adopt and use modern technologies. This is still a work in being and is likely to be tweaked as more experience is gained in its implementation. 

Conclusion

There is a greater focus now in addressing India's security concerns. This is being addressed through multiple initiatives being taken both in the realm of foreign policy as well as in defence sector reforms. The focus over the next decade will be on holistic management of India's security for which the driving force will be political and military leadership, supported by a strong defence industrial base.

Addressing Internal Fault Lines: The Need for Societal Awareness

The information age has truly empowered the individual to levels which were unimaginable even at the turn of the century, barely two decades ago. Today, even individuals at the lower end of the economic spectrum carry out digital financial transactions with consummate ease, converse in social groups such as FaceBook and WhatsApp and are reasonably well informed of current happenings in their immediate neighbourhood as well as on issues which impact the country. The digital revolution has also empowered people through schemes such as the 'Jan Dhan Yojana,' which has led to financial inclusion for millions of households who earlier had no access to banking facilities. "Ayushman Bharat," a flagship scheme of Government of India that was launched in 2017, is focussed on providing Universal Health Coverage (UHC) to the masses, with a commitment to "leave no one behind." Similarly, India's Covid vaccine programme is based on digital technology, through the digital platform, 'CO-WIN'. This user friendly mobile app for recording vaccine data is working as a beneficiary management platform having various modules. 

The benefits of digitisation are immense especially in the field of governance. However, just as the smart phone and the internet have empowered the individual, the ubiquitous nature of information technology has also thrown up a range of opportunities for their misuse through disinformation, distortion of the truth, false flag operations, spoofing, spam mail, and the like, to create divisions and turmoil within society. The Information Environment (IE) is truly global in nature, with information flows cutting across physical and artificial boundaries and impacting all segments of society. This is both enabling as well as has potential for misuse. The wide range and diversity of actors in the global IE has great aggregate influence, much akin to that of a state and more often, even far in excess of what the modern state exercises. Non-state actors have also made their presence felt and seek to create influence in furtherance of their objectives. Towards this end, influencers are used, who unwittingly or otherwise lend their name to a social cause or movement, sometimes unknowing of the real intent of the provocateurs and at others, because of monetary inducement or being ideologically aligned to the cause. Non-state actors also use the media and exploit advances made in information communication technology to undermine governments and exert influence in furtherance of their aims.

An example of the above is the efforts made by interested groups to undermine the BJP led NDA government ever since it won the Lok Sabha elections in 2014. A concerted campaign was launched by motivated groups in the months following the 2014 elections to showcase India as an intolerant nation. Here, an attempt was made to create religious discord by highlighting certain isolated incidences of vandalism that had taken places in churches as deliberate targeted attacks, when in fact they were nothing more than cases of petty theft, the likes of which were routine and had taken place in earlier years too. When viewed holistically with data analysis over the past ten years, there was no upward spiral of such cases, as alleged. Such incidents had also happened with Hindu places of worship but that fact was glossed over. By the time the truth finally came out, India's image stood tarnished, with even the then US President, Mr Barack Obama, who had come to India as the Chief Guest for the 2015 Republic Day Parade, making remarks on 'religious intolerance' and repeating the same on his return to Washington. The vicious attacks against India were motivated and designed to pressure India on its foreign policy and domestic policy options, with religious intolerance being used as a tool to make India conform to Western dictates.

The subsequent years saw protests on various issues, fanned by interested groups exploiting the social, audio-visual and print media. The year 2016 witnessed a series of agitations by student groups, who shouted slogans in support of a terrorist who was convicted for his role in the attack on India's Parliament in 2001 and who was executed in 2013! The agitating students, supported by left wing and islamist groups, raised slogans seeking the break up of India and calling the act of execution of the convicted terrorist an act of murder. Similar agitations continued on various pretexts over the next two years. Then in 2019 there were huge protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) which brought parts of the nation's capital to a standstill, peaking in February 2020, to tarnish the nation's image when US President Donald Trump was visiting India. And in September 2020, massive protests broke out against the three farm laws passed by Parliament, which peaked during the Republic Day celebrations in 2021. In all these protests there was a hidden agenda of undermining the elected Indian government, India's democratic framework as well as India's composite cultural ethos. Information was weaponised and used to draw crowds to disrupt normal life. This remains part of the agenda of external forces to exacerbate internal issues and fault lines. In this, segments of the opposition parties within India lend a helping hand in their bid to get back to power. In the end, it is the people of India who suffer.

The desire to shape opinions remains the key motivator for organising mass movements against the elected government. This suits the agenda of foreign powers who view India's rise as a potential threat to their economic interests. It is therefore incumbent on the state to preempt hostile agendas by anticipating what disruptors might do and taking preventive action well in time. This can be done by shaping public perceptions through a long-term vision and with strategic patience.

A potential flashpoint is the current controversy created by the Muslim clergy wherein they seek an alteration to the rules with respect to wearing of school uniforms, so as to allow Muslim girls to wear the hijab. This is a clever ploy by the Muslim clergy to keep Muslim women under subjugation, by invoking their right to study and also invoking their constitutional right to religious freedom. The narrative being spun is that Muslim girls are being denied their right to wear the hijab. This is patently false as there are no restrictions on Muslim women to wear any dress they choose. The restriction is only in the classrooms where the children have to abide by the school dress code. Comparisons with a Sikh male child who wears a turban in class are frivolous as the hijab is not mandated by the Quran to be worn by women and is also not an essential religious practise. The larger danger in interfering with school dress code rules is that if the hijab is permitted, then the Muslim girl child will lose her right of choice, as the clergy will use the power of religious coercion to force her to wear the hijab as a necessary condition to be accepted in their society. This is retrograde and a push back to medievalism.

Another social media favourite of certain groups of people is targeting Diwali and other Hindu festivals. The former always comes up for attack on grounds of pollution, with claims that firecrackers pollute the air. What they fail to address is the poor air quality throughout the year, which has nothing to do with Diwali. Throughout the year, the air quality index (AQI) levels in Delhi and the NCR remain in the poor to very poor category. Diwali is celebrated only on one day and is not a contributory factor to the year long pollution, though the AQI levels do rise for a day after Diwali. Attacks on Diwali are thus motivated and designed to create communal friction. The pollution causing factors which should be addressed are construction activities and vehicular traffic which account for most of the pollution throughout the year. As a long term measure, an efficient bus service within Delhi and the NCR can reduce the use of private vehicles by about 50 to 75 percent. For that, perhaps an additional five thousand buses need to be added to the existing fleet. This preferably should be run by the private sector and not the government. A long-term ban on new residential construction would also be useful on two counts. One, it would mitigate to a great extent, the particle pollutants that escape into the air. Two, it would halt the unchecked population growth in the NCR through migration, which is creating a severe strain on the existing infrastructure. Population control has also to be a part of the larger picture to control pollution levels as human beings are the only polluters in the planet. Suitable narratives which are gender neutral and religion and caste neutral need to be propagated to get wide acceptance from all segments of society and to change behaviour patterns. A proactive stance in shaping perceptions will go a long way in reducing friction and in addressing societal fault lines to prevent internal and external hostile forces from creating disruptions in society. This assumes importance as the spotlight will be on India for the coming year, when it takes on the Presidency of the G20 this December.

The Third Defining Moment in J&K

When India became Independent on 15 August 1947, the vast majority of princely states had signed the Instrument of Accession with India. Three states however had yet to do so—the princely states of Junagadh, Hyderabad and Kashmir. Junagadh, a princely state in Gujarat with a near total Hindu majority had a Muslim ruler. A plebiscite conducted in February 1948 to determine the status of the state was almost unanimous, with over 99.95 percent of the electorate voting for accession to India. In Hyderabad, the Nizam, Mir Osman Ali Khan ruled over a largely Hindu population. The atrocities heaped on the Hindu population forced the Indian government to use the military to liberate the state. This was achieved in a swift operation codenamed Operation Polo, which began on 13 September 1948 and concluded five days later on 18 September with the surrender of the Nizam's forces.

The situation in J&K was however more complex. The border state had two large population groups, both Hindus and Muslims with the latter having a larger majority. Before the ruler, Maharaja Hari Singh could take a view on the accession of his state, armed Pakistani raiders, led by Pakistani army officers, invaded Kashmir in October 1947, barely two months after Independence. The Maharaja lacked the capacity to defend his kingdom from these attacks. There were just three battalions available for the defence of the Kashmir division, of which one battalion was at Srinagar, one at Domel and a third at Gilgit Agency. Of the four battalions south of Pir Panjal range, one each was located at Poonch, Rawalkot, Naushera and Mirpur. Some of these were mixed battalions with both Dogra and Muslim troops. Poor communications and the vast spread of the area meant that each battalion was really fighting an independent battle and could not depend on support from any one.

The Pakistani plan to take the state of J&K by force was codenamed "Operation Gulmarg," under the command of Brig (later Major General) Akbar Khan, a serving officer of the Pakistan army. A force of 7,500 tribals mixed with Pakistan army personnel began the offensive on 22 October, which was characterised by murder, loot and rape. The Muslim companies of the Maharaja's forces deserted their posts and joined the raiders, after shamefully killing their Dogra colleagues. By 26 October, the raiders were on the outskirts of Kashmir, when the Maharaja requested India's help and signed the Instrument of Accession. Next day, the first lot of troops from the Indian Army were flown in to Srinagar and the raiders were halted on the outskirts of the city. Thereafter, they were pushed back till a ceasefire was declared on 31 December 1948. This was the first defining moment in the post-independence history of the state. At the time of the Ceasefire, Pakistan was in possession of about one-third of the state of J&K, to include the areas of Gilgit-Baltistan and Mirpur-Muzaffarabad. This line has seen minor modifications post the 1971 war with Pakistan, where it came to be known as the Line of Control. But the fact that the raiders were stopped and pushed back despite unimaginable odds is a credit to the Indian Infantry, which since then, celebrates 27 October as Infantry Day. 

The second defining moment in the history of the state came with the onset of  radicalisation of Kashmiri Muslims. The process, which started in the mid sixties, had, by the mid seventies, picked up pace, eventually culminating in the genocide of the minority Hindu population in Kashmir in January 1990. This was perhaps the saddest moment in the history of the state, where the indigenous Hindu population which had been living here for over five millennia were forced to flee their homeland and seek refuge in other parts of India. The much vaunted "Kashmiriyat" - a blend of Hindu and Muslim traditions, was brutally killed at the altar of Islamic radicalism. The Indian Army was called in to restore order in the state and while the outward manifestation of peace has been restored, the challenge of eliminating terrorism in full still remains, largely because terrorism is fuelled and funnelled from across the border by Pakistan. The Indian Army hence remains deployed in the region, carrying out counter-terrorism operations. 

We are now in the midst of the third defining moment in the state, post-independence. On 5 August 1919, the Special Status given to the state was withdrawn by an Act of Parliament, passed by both the Houses. With the revocation, the state was also bifurcated into two Union Territories (UT), The UT of J&K and the UT of Ladakh, the former with a legislature and the latter without. This has perhaps been the most revolutionary piece of legislation in post-Independence history, designed to bring peace and normalcy to the state. 

Since the revocation, the state has seen a downward spiral of violence, but it will take some more time for peace to return fully to the UT. Importantly, incidents of stone pelting, hartals and attending the funeral of slain terrorists, which was a frequent occurrence since 1990, are now a thing of the past. The linkages which the Hurriyat Conference had with Pakistan have been considerably weakened as has the ability of this organisation to stoke violence in the UT. Abrogation of  the Special Status given to the former state of J&K is however not a panacea for peace. Many challenges still lie ahead for restoration of total normalcy. But without the revocation, peace in the region would have been but a chimera. There is no magic wand to negate the effects of over four decades of radicalisation, wherein even the states administrative machinery had been corroded. But the fact that the process has begun in real earnest brings forth, for the first time, the hope of total peace in the region. That will mark the beginning of the fourth phase of the defining moments in the history of J&K. Hopefully, this will come about by 2024.

INFORMATION WARFARE IN MODERN DAY CONFLICT

Introduction

The critical role that information plays in warfare is well known and has been adequately documented over millennia. In days of yore, rulers laid great stress on intelligence gathering, surveillance and reconnaissance as part of their war fighting philosophy. Kautilya’s magnum opus, Arthashastra, written about 2300 years ago, provides a detailed account of intelligence collection, processing, consumption, and covert operations, as indispensable means for maintaining and expanding the security and power of the state. In those times, extensive use was made of spies to gather information. That process continues till date.

The means used till about the beginning of the nineteenth century to deliver orders in the battlefield was through runners who would convey instructions and information from position to position and commander to soldiers in the midst of battle. Drums, horns, flags, and riders on horseback were some of the other methods the military used to send messages over distances. This has changed in modern times with the discovery and understanding of electromagnetic waves since the early nineteenth century. Today, advancements made in communication technology have radically altered the way we communicate with each other. The information revolution has been led by the ongoing rapid evolution of cyberspace, microcomputers, and associated information technologies. Alongside the rapid advancements made in communication technology, phenomenal developments have taken place in long range precision weapon systems. The merger of these technologies, when coopted into revised military organisations, structures and doctrine, has given rise to what is popularly called the RMA or Revolution in Military Affairs. This has led to the evolution of C4I2SR systems, an acronym for integrating Command, Control, Communications, Computers (C4), Information, Intelligence (I2) Surveillance and Reconnaissance (SR) systems into a system of systems. This implies a group of functionalities and applications of a defence system to integrate weapon platforms with surveillance stations and decision making structures.

The Communication Revolution

 

We are living today in the information age. The shift from traditional industry, established by the industrial revolution, to an economy primarily based upon information technology, started sometime in the mid twentieth century. Also known as the digital age, the information age is characterised by the use of computers and smart phones, which has enabled individuals and organisations to communicate with each other and share information across a wide spectrum of requirements such as terrain mapping, weather forecasting, data transfer and a host of other applications. This has been made possible by positioning satellites in space, which communicate with earth stations to provide a host of facilities all across the globe in real time. Advancements in communication technologies also provide a host of military applications, enabling precision engagement of long distance targets and giving rise to the possibility of conducting military operations at the speed of thought. 

Information in the modern age is thus vital for all aspects of human endeavour, to include governance, business, agriculture, economy—practically every aspect of modern life. The digitisation of information based processes has led to practical applications in all forms of governance. As an example, in India, the 'Jan Dhan Yojana' scheme has led to financial inclusion for millions of households who earlier had no access to banking facilities. Launched in 2014, the scheme, now having completed eight years, has over 46 crore beneficiaries, whose deposits are in excess of Rs 1.73 lakh crore. Similarly, India's Covid vaccine programme was based on digital technology, through the digital platform, 'CO-WIN'.  This user friendly mobile app for recording vaccine data is working as a beneficiary management platform having various modules. Similarly, information based digital systems are presently being used for complex management systems and infrastructures involving the control of electric power, money flow, air traffic, oil and gas, and other information-dependent items. The security and effective operation of critical infrastructure in the energy, banking and finance, transportation, communication, and the Defense Industrial Base domain, rely on cyberspace, industrial control systems, and information technology that may be vulnerable to disruption or exploitation if adversaries attempt to damage them using Information Warfare techniques. This could potentially paralyse a nations functioning and hence the need to protect such systems becomes paramount. 

Information based systems also have tremendous military applications which are vital to a nation's war fighting potential. There would be a need to protect own networks which are required for command and control, precision target engagement over long distances, battlefield transparency, remote sensing, terrain mapping and a host of other military requirements. Protecting own information means and attacking those of the enemy are hence an essential component of modern day war-fighting. The latter operation involves both hard and soft kill options. As an example, the physical destruction of a satellite or earth stations would be part of the hard kill, whereas making systems unusable through non-kinetic means would form part of the soft kill options. Information Warfare thus deals with three major prongs: One, the denial and protection of information, two, the exploitation and ability to attack enemy information and data systems, (which also embraces electronic warfare) and three, deception by various means to include spoofing, imitation and distortion.

Besides the above, the fourth related field for information warfare involves the specific targeting of the minds of a select or indiscriminate audience, so as to influence the attitudes and behaviour patterns of large population segments into a favoured direction. This has become possible because digital technology has enabled the common citizen to receive and transmit information from multiple sources—a function which was earlier solely the preserve of the state and perhaps of a few large media houses. This democratisation of information has led to the ability to influence or shape the attitudes and perceptions of entire populations as part of a war fighting strategy. Also referred to as perception management, the aim, whether in war or peace, is to influence the perceptions, attitudes and behaviour of selected individuals or groups so as to achieve political or military objectives while preventing effective use of these activities by an enemy or adversary. Such operations could have tactical, operational or  strategic impact. 

A recent example of use of Information Warfare is the ongoing conflict in Russia, which began on 24 February 2022 and is still continuing. In the early stages of the war, the Russian military disabled or destroyed a large part of the electronic communication infrastructure of Ukraine, prompting Ukraine's President Zelenskyy to appeal to Elon Musk for help. Mr Musk immediately responded to the request by making his Starlink satellite services available to Ukraine, providing SpaceX's Starlink internet access service to the beleaguered nation. Starlink is currently providing critical communication lifeline to Ukraine's government, military and civilians despite persistent Russian bombing of traditional telecommunication infrastructures across Ukraine, serving as a vital communication line and complementing precarious traditional telecommunication infrastructures. As of September 2022, there were 23,000 Starlink terminals in Ukraine.

Strategic Imperatives

Perception management by most nations and their militaries revolve around the tactical and operational aspects with the limited aim of inducing enemy troops to surrender or to desert. The need is, however, for having a larger strategic focus within which the tactical and operational narratives must play a part. The US led information campaign aimed at undermining Communism during the Cold War is an apt example of a successfully conducted perception management campaign with a strategic focus. 

As Josef Joffe, editor of Die Zeit has written, “Unlike centuries past, when war was the great arbiter, today the most interesting types of power do not come out of the barrel of a gun”. Elaborating further, Joseph Nye states that bigger payoffs can be achieved by “getting others to want what you want”. Perception management operations can be one of the primary ways of achieving that objective. In the Indian context, an effective perception management strategy could lead to conflict resolution in a faster time frame in those areas afflicted by terrorism and insurgency. Insurgent and terrorist networks, in a sense could be likened to the demon Raktabīja, mentioned in Hindu scriptures. The demon was blessed with a boon that whenever a drop of his blood fell on the ground, a duplicate Raktabīja would be born at that spot. To finally kill the demon, Goddess Kali had to stretch her tongue all across the worlds to prevent the blood from spilling on the ground. In relation to insurgencies, this blood represents the public support that insurgents need to survive. Once separated from that support, insurgencies will wither and die. Perception management can be used effectively for that purpose.

It must however be understood that perception management is not a substitute for capability. As an example, in the absence of hard power, deterrence will not succeed, regardless of the effectiveness of the perception management campaign. In advertising terms, the product has to live up to its brand image, otherwise it will lose its credibility. This also implies that the actions of the Armed Forces while engaged in military operations must be in consonance with the perception management campaign and the strategic narrative must not be lost sight of. The strategic narrative remains focussed on end-term goal realisations while operational and tactical level narratives are more focussed towards the immediacy of the conflict situation. While the tactical and operational level narratives are important, they must not run counter to the long-term aims of the country. 

Conclusion

Information Warfare as a war-winning factor is not a new concept, having been extensively applied in battles over the past few millennia. But its modern day application is a product of advancements made in communication technology and long range precision weapon systems, along with a concept which is relatively new, which is shaping perceptions of an entire population through the social media, audio-visual networks and the print media. In the information age, the shaping and influencing of opinions of target populations can give handsome returns and can lead to conflict resolution on favourable terms. It is however not a stand alone concept and must be applied with other instruments of state power to achieve the desired results.

Published by the RSS

BOOK REVIEW: CONNECTING WITH THE MAHABHARATA History / Geography / Archaeology / Culture / Art

Authors: Neera Misra and Rajesh Lal

Book Review by Maj Gen Dhruv C. Katoch,

A phenomenon, now distinctly visible in India, bespeaks of a distinct desire amongst the populace to connect to one's roots. This reflects a push back against an agenda, fostered by foreign rulers over the last millennia, wherein the local belief systems of the Indian people were denigrated, distorted or sought to be destroyed. Indian scriptures were demeaned and portrayed as being medieval, backward, archaic and not in tune with modern times. This consistent attempt to destroy India's spiritual and cultural heritage was part of a construct to break the spirit of its people. It was a deliberate act, attempted by the sword during the period of muslim rule. The British, however, were more subtle. They overhauled the education system to create a body of Indians, who would, as enunciated by Thomas Babington Macaulay, be "Indian in blood and colour, but English in taste, in opinions, in morals and in intellect". The aim in both cases was to emphasise the superiority of the conquerors, to enable them to rule India in perpetuity. To do that, it was essential to create a sense of inferiority in the subjugated population through disassociating them from their roots. 

In the world view of the occupying powers, whether muslim or British, a whole race could be permanently enslaved if they could be forced or coerced to change their religion, their language and their culture. But despite the onslaught of a thousand years, the Indian civilisational ethos could not be subdued. The people fought back, even when the odds were immensely stacked against them That is why the Indic civilisation survived, despite repeated assaults on its very foundation. Today, while all other ancient civilisations have been swept away by the sands of time, the Indic civilisation stands tall and proud, unbroken, though battered a bit perhaps. But such an onslaught has left a void in the spiritual and cultural yearnings of the masses. The resurgence that we are now witnessing is a reflection of that deep-seated desire to know more about our heritage and our spiritual and cultural moorings from the indigenous lens and not as viewed and narrated by foreign invaders.

Consequent to such an indigenous upsurge, a scholarly body of literature has emerged over the years, encapsulating the depth of spiritual learnings from ancient times. This book, "Connecting with the Mahabharata" is one such body of work, immaculately researched and written with a free flowing elegance that is rarely seen in works of this nature. Towards that end, the authors, Ms Neera Misra and Air Vice Marshal Rajesh Lal, have crafted not just a book, but a veritable masterpiece. 

While the Mahabharata has always been a source of deep philosophical and spiritual learning, the valuable knowledge of our sacred Itihasa continued to be undermined, even post independence, by a range of authors who veered towards a virulent communist ideology. As they held the levers of power in the educational domain, they continued with such subjective history writing and in diluting Bharat's scriptural and spiritual heritage. In the western narrative, India's scriptural texts became mere works of poetry with a mythological construct and this fallacy was further reinforced post independence by historians who looked at Bharat from an ideological lens. The historicity of Ram and Krishna was hence suppressed, making it even more important now to correct centuries of misinterpretations and misperceptions about our sacred historical texts. And this is what this marvellous book sets out to do.

Set out in eight chapters, the opening chapter gives an overarching introduction to the Mahabharata. Chapter 2 is interesting as it brings forth the geographical context in which the Mahabharata is set. Bharatavarsha, as described in our scriptures, is the bow-shaped region extending from the Himalayas, South to the Oceans. The people who inhabited this region were indigenous and called Arya or the enlightened ones. This dispels the distortion brought about by the now discredited theory of the Aryan invasion. This chapter also gives an account of the term Yuga, as used by ancient Bhartiya scholars to describe various eras of ancient Bharata—Sat Yuga, Treta Yuga, Dvarpa Yuga and Kali Yuga. Mention is made of the geography of rivers and their tributaries as expounded in the Rig Veda, which also contain the rivers in which the Mahabharata story unfolds. The maps used to support the narrative are truly mesmerising, with history unfolding through the geography of the land.

The third chapter describes the political, socio-economic and cultural landscape of the larger expanse of Bharata, from which comes the term Mahabharata. The 18 Parvas or episodic parts of the Mahabharata are described in this chapter, once again with beautiful illustrations. Chapter 4 deals with the archaeological evidence in support of the authenticity of the Mahabharata. This covers a wide swathe, from Gandhara (present day Kandahar in Afghanistan) to Magadh in the east of India and gives a fascinating glimpse of the excavations made by stalwarts of the calibre of Shri BB Lal. The dating of the Mahabharata is covered in Chapter 6, which provides another fascinating account of the probable dates when the events as covered in the Mahabharata took place. This is important as it dispels the fake narrative which refers to Indian scriptures as mythology, lacking a historical context. The penultimate chapter deal with the Mahabharata in the arts while the final chapter covers the genealogy and roots of the Mahabharata family tree.

The book, brought forth as a coffee table book, is a unique work, written in elegant prose alongside breathtaking art work to go with the script. It serves to educate the reader of India's rich spiritual and scriptural heritage in a manner that is easily comprehensible. For a work of this magnitude, with such beautiful illustrations, it is modestly priced at Rs 1199, in hard cover. To all Indians who would like to get in touch with their roots, this is a book which they will be proud to possess. 

Chinese Aggressiveness in the Region: An Analysis

China's growing aggressiveness in recent years has much to do with China's self image and how its citizens perceive China's place in the comity of nations. While individuals have personality traits, a survey of a group of countries carried out over three years has suggested that a country too, can be said to have personality traits. With respect to China, this survey suggests that as a country, Chinese people exhibit two distinct traits. One, they have a deep, abiding belief in the ideals of humanism, encompassing altruism, compassion, and understanding. Two, the people showed a preference for order and organisation. They preferred certainty and thoroughness, and often judged success in terms of task accomplishment. On the macro level then, it appears that humanism and order are two traits valued by the Chinese people. 

So, if humanism and order constitute the personality of China, why is China perceived as an aggressive and volatile force? This is where the concept of a Nation’s character comes in. This refers to the shared beliefs or perceptions of personality characteristics common to members of a particular nation, both within the nation and outside it. This perception of China in the eyes of its own people and even outside of China is controlled by the Communist Party of China, the CPC, which founded the People's Republic of China (PRC) and is its sole ruling party.

Viewed through this lens, the personality of China is not congruent with its character. This has the potential to lead to internal unrest, protests and displeasure against the ruling dispensation. Hence, we see the heavy hand of propaganda inside and outside of China, by the CCP controlled outlets, trying to convince their own people and the outside world that a CPC run China, actually functions in terms of the Chinese personality and is humanistic, orderly and completes its projects in a timely manner, keeping the good of the people at heart. The ending of poverty in China is hence an important landmark, along with projects such as the One Belt one Road which are termed as China's humanistic and altruistic outreach. The crackdown on corruption can also be seen in a similar light. 

There is also a third characteristic which defines China and that is its sense of nationalism, grounded in the belief that China was once a great power and that it must regain that status. This sense of nationalism dates back to well before the establishment of the PRC, but it was the PRC which has, since 1949, promoted the narrative of the 'Century of Humiliation,' which is largely conceived as having begun with the first Opium War in 1839, in which the Royal Navy opened up China to Western capitalism, and ended in 1949, with the PRC coming to power in China. This discourse reiterates the humiliation of the Chinese people, the dismemberment of territory, the loss of sovereignty to foreign powers and domestic weakness and corruption. 

This sense of nationalism also drives China's foreign policy, with the PRC being sensitive to public concerns and taking into account popular nationalist sentiments. As an example, in 2012, when tensions arose over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, the Chinese public boycotted Japanese products, linking the same to patriotism. There is a deep sense of hurt amongst the Chinese people of what happened after the Japanese Imperial Army seized Nanjing on 13 December 1937. For the next six weeks, the conquerors went on a rampage, killing all the Chinese soldiers who survived, which was against the canons of war. But worse, they murdered the civilian population, raped the women and pillaged and burnt the township. This massacre still weighs heavily on the Chinese consciousness. It is the Chinese public which is averse to the continuing Japanese practice of honouring of its WWII martyrs at the Yasukuni Shrine. This public vehemence at times outstrips even the hardliners within the PRC government, serving to push policy further toward hawkishness, with netizens criticising their own country’s policymakers for not being aggressive enough. And if China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) is perceived to be undermining Chinese interests, then they too are subjected to ridicule by the public. Two factors indicate this trend. One, China's MFA receives calcium pills when the public feels their diplomats need to stiffen up their backbone—a popular choice of insult to indicate spinelessness. And two, in the online world, the MFA has garnered the unofficial nickname ‘the Ministry of Protests’ due to its tendency to do little more than issue denouncements of unfavourable international developments. It is this public pressure which has perhaps forced a change within China's diplomatic community, leading to what we now see as wolf warrior envoys.

With this as a background, let us look into Chinese aggressive policies astride its land borders as well as in the Western Pacific. Since early 1990s, while China was pursuing its economic and military growth agenda, it did not want its growth to be seen as threatening to its neighbours. So Beijing resorted to the rhetoric of its peaceful rise and was restrained in its foreign policy options. It engaged with regional multilateral organisations such as ASEAN, and with neighbouring states, using trade and investment deals to foster better relations. But as China grew in strength and clout, its foreign policy too has distinctly changed, with Beijing now focussed on aggressively promoting its core interests, getting more assertive with its neighbours and pushing back with greater confidence against the United States. Towards this end, China has not shied away from applying military and other coercive economic and diplomacy leverages to further its interests. That is why we see Beijing intensifying its construction activities on the artificial islands it has constructed in the South China Sea, and despite protests from the US and neighbouring states, continues with the construction of airstrips and other military facilities in these islands. In the economic sphere, China continues to intrude into the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of its neighbours to carry out fishing and oil exploration activities. With respect to Taiwan, Japan, Philippines, and some other ASEAN countries, China is resorting to increased military activity, especially in the East China Sea and in the Taiwan Straits, as also in exerting economic and diplomatic pressure. These changes are reflective of a weakening uni-polar world order taking place concurrently with China's rise. China now feels it can push back against the U.S.-led international system, to promote a new international order.

It must be remembered here that China's rise took place in a uni-polar world. While unipolarity creates strong incentives for states to balance the unipole, there is a cost attached to such balancing which makes the challenger tread cautiously. As China grew in strength, it resorted to soft balancing, which is what we see playing out today. While not directly challenging the United States, it is using military and non-military means such as territorial denial and entangling diplomacy to delay, frustrate and undermine US policies. It desists from hard balancing which is reflected by military build up and military alliances, because of the high transaction costs involved. Hard balancing is easier to achieve in a bipolar or multi-polar environment but in a uni-polar environment, hard balancing would be viewed as revisionism and as a dangerous threat to international order. That is why Beijing, rather than confronting the United States directly, has fixed its attention to its own neighbourhood. In East Asia, while Beijing is confronted with the dominant position which the US occupies, because of China's strengthened economic and military capabilities, and because of the advantage that accrues to it from geography, it has greater confidence to do something about it. No rising power would want military bases and forward-deployed troops of its rivals next to one’s own borders. This is why China, with the growth of its economic and military might, seeks to control its immediate neighbourhood and is pushing back at US dominance. The quest for influence between the US and China in this region will thus continue to increase in intensity as time goes by. The imperative for the US, due to geographical distance from the region, will be to continue to expand its diplomatic, economic and especially military reach in the region. The Quad is but one manifestation of US efforts to keep China in check. 

But the real story is that a change is in the offing, though it may be many years distant from the present moment. Essentially, the uni-polar dynamics is weakening, and other dynamics are strengthening, presenting Beijing with a variable set of options in which it can manoeuvre in east Asia. For this, the CPC would rely on the support of its people, in the absence of which its ability to manoeuvre gets restricted. As of now, the Chinese sense of nationalism provides the necessary level of support to the CCP to pursue its agenda.

The Chinese strategy of promoting a narrative of a peaceful and non-threatening rise amongst its neighbours was predicated on US unipolarity. In the circumstances, a low profile approach was possible. With China's rise, its resistance to US power has also increased, though it still desists from carrying out hard balancing options. An example of resistance is the defensive measures that have been instituted by China against the most threatening elements of US military power such as China's Anti Area Access Denial (A2/AD) strategy. This encompasses the creation of artificial islands and militarising the same with airstrips, submarine pens, logistical support for its warships etc, along with adequate Air Defence cover, to push back against US naval and air power. It is a sea denial strategy, to restrict US military options in the Western Pacific, more specifically in the South and East China Sea. 

The show by China of its anti-ship ballistic missiles in its military parades is also designed to send a clear message to Washington that China has the capability to sink US aircraft carriers. By augmenting its A2/AD capabilities, China has raised the cost and the risks for the US to operate its aircrafts and ships close to China's near seas. China is also attempting to shape international developments by  increased activities in setting the agenda in multilateral organisations, without directly confronting the US. In a Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), held in Shanghai in 2014, Xi Jinping, in his keynote address, sketched out a new security architecture for Asia. His advocacy for a new Asian based regional security cooperation architecture was obviously a challenge to the US role in regional security and was the first instance since the end of the Cold War that such an iteration had been made by a Chinese leader. In the economic sphere, China has responded to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and to the US led regional free trade agreement, with Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The latter was concluded in 2020, albeit without India. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has to be seen in this light. To maintain its position, the US launched its pivot or rebalance to Asia under the Obama administration and now is invigorating the Quad. But the US strategy has been a bit incoherent, which has resulted in uncertainty in US allies and partners about the extent of US engagement and commitment. This is still playing out.

But internal power dynamics are also playing out in China, which could impact on the single party rule of the CPC. The four Chinese modernisations which have been underway over the last four decades have seen rapid economic development in China which has huge implications for Chinese society and its relationship with the CPC. The economic reforms which were initiated necessitated granting more space to Chinese entrepreneurs, which in turn has created a more diverse and active Chinese society, in which voices have emerged that are not shy of expressing opinions that are critical of developments within and outside China. The spread of communication technology and the increasing use of social media platforms has also produced societal change which could potentially challenge the CPC’s capacity to rule. This has increased the party leaderships proclivity with maintaining domestic control and legitimacy, even to the extent of using increasingly repressive methods to deal with the situation, if so required. At the same time, efforts by the CPC continue apace to seek support from the society to maintain the existing order. The support sought is no longer for ideological legitimacy but for performance, the commitment being to provide the Chinese people with higher standards of living, economic development, peace and stability as part of the social contract. This remains the main claim to legitimacy of the CPC led by Xi Jinping, but as expectations within Chinese society are rising, the leadership will continue to be tested in the years to come.

Chinese societal expectations are not just confined to economic concerns but to nationalists ambitions as well. As China grows, the yearning in society to regain its perceived past glory is all too evident. This growing nationalist sentiment will constrain Chinese foreign policy choices, forcing it on a more belligerent path and reducing room for manoeuvre. This was evident in the 2012 anti Japanese protests in China that flared up after Japan's nationalisation of three Senkaku Islands. The Chinese government termed the act as a "gross violation" of Chinese sovereignty over the territory, and hinted at taking military action, but did not go down that path. That may change, with heightened concerns among the CPC to meet people's demands. We now see nationalism in China projecting to Chinese claims in the surrounding seas, and being linked to the domestic legitimacy of Chinese ruling clique. The CPC will however have to balance out its foreign policy objectives with the consequences such policies may have on the Chinese economy. How the dynamics between the top-down nationalism and the bottom-up nationalism in China plays out remains to be seen, but the present leadership is seen to be less averse to risk-taking and in promoting a more uncompromising nationalism, to advance what are perceived to be China's legitimate claims. The construct here is based on a Chinese civilisational rejuvenation, drawn from its imagined glorious past, which gives it adequate scope to operate outside the confines of a straitjacketed ideology and also to expand its territorial reach. Such an approach is perforce more aggressive, which explains why Chinese diplomats are taking a stronger position on nationalist issues. We can thus expect to see more volatility on foreign policy issues in the coming years, especially with relation to Chinese claims on Taiwan. It must be noted here that President Xi Jinping is personally invested in the above narrative, to claim his place among the leading figures in the CPC pantheon.

The coming years will thus see greater belligerence from China, with increasing militarisation of both the South and East China Seas. Military confrontation, in all probability will be avoided, with China resorting to non-military methods to attain its territorial objectives and to achieve national rejuvenation. The ASEAN countries will attempt some form of rapprochement with China, on their respective claim lines, but Japan will in all probability dramatically increase its defence spending and seek parity with Chinese naval and air power in the Western Pacific. 

For India, we have the advantage of geography in the Indian Ocean Region, but would have to ensure an effective naval presence to guard our interests. The Quad serves India's security interests though it is not yet a security grouping. On India's border with Tibet, it is a conflict which India will have to fight alone, should the situation so arise, though help in the form of intelligence and logistic support will in all likelihood come from the US and others. The key factor in any war over the Himalayas will be cyber and space capability and control over the skies over the Tibetan Plateau. So long as India is prepared, China will be reluctant to undertake a military adventure which she may well lose. Internal stability, economic growth, military preparedness and astute diplomacy thus will be the essential components of India's response to Chinese belligerence.

Published in IFJ, Sep-Oct 2022