Wednesday, January 13, 2021

Valour, Courage and Righteous Conduct: The Sine Qua Non of the Indian Army

When India became independent in 1947, Gandhi’s charisma and his philosophy of Ahimsa (non-violence), which had been imbibed by the Congress Party which assumed power, led some people in authority to believe that India would no longer need an army to defend herself. That bit of myopic wishful thinking ended almost as soon as it had begun, for soon after Independence, India was plunged into its first war with Pakistan, when the Pakistan army, in the guise of armed raiders attacked Jammu and Kashmir in October 1947. That was the first call to duty for the Army in the newly independent India and the men in olive greens came out with flying colours in heroically saving the Valley and pushing back the Pakistani forces to roughly the positions held today by both countries and now called the Line of Control.

Besides fighting the war, the army also escorted convoys of fleeing Hindus and Sikhs from Pakistan to India. Many soldiers laid down their lives in protecting their brethren from imminent death at the hands of the marauding Muslim mobs in Pakistan. The escorts were small groups, sometimes just 20 to 30 men, but they unflinchingly faced the marauders who were in the thousands and executed what can only be described as the most incredible evacuation in strife torn areas. And in all this, their personal conduct was unimpeachable.


When the first Indo-Pak war was fought in 1947-48, the Commander-in-Chief of the Indian Army was General Sir Robert Lockhart who served from 15 July 1947 till the end of the year. He was relieved by another British officer, General Sir Roy Bucher, who in turn served for just over a year and handed over the reins of the Indian Army to Lt Gen KM Cariappa, on 15 January 1949. General Cariappa thus became the first Indian Chief of the Indian Army and to mark this momentous occasion, 15 January is celebrated every year as Army Day. Over the years, the military leadership has honed the Indian Army into a force capable of tackling internal and external threats, out of area contingencies, natural disasters and calamities and in providing aid to the civil authority, when called upon to do so.


In valour, the Indian soldier is second to none—an inheritance from ancient times. In 326 BCE, Alexander, one of the greatest conquerors of all times, after vanquishing the mighty Persian Empire, set his eyes on conquering India. But at the banks of the river Jhelum, he met with the steely resolve of Porus, a minor Indian King, who stopped the mighty emperor in his tracks. That resolve of steel is till aglow in todays Indian Army, which rightly is held in high esteem across the world. But along with courage and valour, the Indian Army is known for its righteous conduct—a tradition carried over from the time of the Ramayana and Mahabharata.


Be it the four wars which India has fought—three with Pakistan and one with China, or its continuous engagement in counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism (CICT) operations, both within and beyond India’s frontiers, or even the numerous United Nations peace keeping missions that the Army has been engaged in, the conduct of the Indian Army has only drawn applause and acclaim across the world. Writing on this aspect of the Indian Army after the Liberation War of 1971, the well-known Pulitzer winning journalist, Sydney Schanberg, commented in the New York Times, that “I never saw them do a thing wrong not even when they saw just how bestial the enemy had been.” That one line sums up the high ethical standards of the Indian Army, despite grave provocation by some of its adversaries. 


While operating in Sri Lanka in Operation Pawan, the local population reposed total faith and trust in the Indian Army. I had the privilege to serve with my unit for two years conducting CICT operations, and at all times, the Indian troops deployed in Sri Lanka retained the trust of the local Tamil and Sinhala population as well as of the Sri Lankan Government and security forces—A commendable achievement indeed. Is it any surprise then, that despite continuous operations in J&K over the last three decades, the Army is held in the highest esteem amongst the local population in the Union Territory of J&K. The same can be said of the Army’s operations in the Punjab, and in North East India. Its reputation in the various UN peace-keeping missions it has been engaged in is unmatched and speaks volumes of the Indian soldier.


The Army of today is in many ways different from the Army of yesteryears. It has better firepower and mobility and is well equipped to handle the modern battlefield, especially in terms of communications and battlefield transparency. But what has not changed is its core characteristics of valour and courage, along with a high sense of moral purpose. 


Today, as the nation celebrates the Army Day, the Indian Army continues to maintain vigil on the borders with both its hostile neighbours, in extremely difficult terrain and weather conditions. The external threats are menacing with perpetual Chinese provocation in Eastern Ladakh and  a hostile and belligerent Pakistan not letting up in its proxy terror war against India. But the nation is at peace, because they have their Army to defend them. An Army with a tradition of valour and a very strong moral compass. That is what makes the Indian Army a truly remarkable and unbeatable force.

Chintan - 15 Jan 2021

Saturday, January 9, 2021

Modernising the Military within Budgetary Constraint

IntroductionIndia’s defence budget has generally been in the range of 2 to 3 percent of its GDP. This includes the expenditure on pensions. Since 2009, defence expenditure as a percentage of GDP has shown a decline (Figure 1). In terms of actual expenditure, however, there has been a year on year increase in the defence budget, as indicated by the graph (Figure 2). While the increase in defence expenditure over the ten year period 2009-2019 has doubled, in real terms it only reflects a marginal increase when inflation is taken into account.  


Figure 1

Figure 2





India’s military modernisation has not kept pace with the requirements of the force, largely due to budgetary constraints. To make up for decades of neglect in a short time frame is a Herculean task, especially as additional budgetary support is unlikely to be made available. There is a view in defence circles, more so in think tanks,  that the defence expenditure should be increased to a minimum of four percent of the GDP for at least one decade, to meet the requirements of the Armed Forces, but that outcome is unlikely to come about. The expenditure on defence, as a percentage of the total Union Budget is about 15 percent, and any further increase can only be at the cost of other sectors, which are equally vital for the welfare of the country. Either other means would have to be found to augment the budget or ways and means have to be found to optimise what is available.


With limits on what can be spent on defence, we need to look at optimising efficiencies. A great deal can be achieved through a radically different approach to the indigenisation effort, better and faster decision making for defence acquisitions, and through revitalising defence manufacturing, both in the public and private sector.


Indigenisation


Technology is an enabler, and this is one field where India has to push hardest. As of now, India is behind the technological curve in many defence related fields, and has to play the catch up game. A dual approach is required. One, getting to world standards in existing technologies and two, getting on board, as far as future technologies are concerned.


India’s space programme is a success story and this needs to be replicated in other sectors. The Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS), also called NavIC, (Acronym for Navigation with Indian Constellation) is now operational and has been recognised as a component of the World-Wide Radio Navigation System (WWRNS) by the Maritime Safety Committee of the International Maritime Organisation (IMO). NavIC covers India and an area 1500 kms around it and provides accurate real-time positioning and timing services. This has both military and civil applications. The US Congress formally acknowledged India’s NavIC global navigation satellite system (GNSS) to be an “allied system” in its finalised 2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The US military and government users can now utilise NavIC along with the US Global Positioning System (GPS), QZSS, and Galileo. Presumably, it will also allow similar privileges for India’s military and government to formally utilise GPS. The advantages are huge. More importantly, the commercial applications are immense, which can offset the cost of the establishment, and over time become a profitable venture. Niche technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotics , must hence be modelled on the lines of ISRO.


Another success story is in missile development. India has developed a range of strategic and conventional missiles, under the Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme, which began in the 1980s. Despite being put under sanctions in 1989 by the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which led to the denial of certain technologies, India successfully developed indigenously all the restricted components denied to it by the MTCR. While certain missiles are still being imported by India, like the Russian, French and Israeli BVRAAMS (Beyond Visual Range Air to Air Missiles), these will soon be replaced by missiles made in India like the Astra, which is already fitted on the Su 30 Mk 1 aircraft and are now being tested on the Tejas. With export curbs on weapons and platforms being eased, India hopefully will start exporting advanced weapon systems like Tejas, helicopters and missiles, to achieve the target set by the Prime Minister of weapons exports of USD 5 billion by 2025. To this can be added small arms which have a wide market. Export of the recently inducted Joint Venture Protective Carbine (JVPC), which is now being introduced into service could be considered.


Decision Making


Decision making on defence deals in India has been slow and tardy which has exponentially raised the cost of military equipment and delayed acquisition of critical systems. The saga of the Rafale fighter aircraft is a case in point, wherein after years of effort, the deal was scrapped at the last moment in 2014. Later, it was left to Prime Minister Modi to make an executive decision to buy 36 aircraft off the shelf, as a strategic imperative. Time delays and cost overruns have cost the nation dearly, both in terms of operational capability as well as financial outflows. Unfortunately, the Rafale case is not an exception, but rather the norm in defence acquisitions.


In the Army’s modernisation process, the artillery is finally looking up. But here too, we have seen many twists and turns which have led to exponential increase in costs and impacted on operational capability. The Bofors scam saw the supplying Swedish firm being blacklisted in India. But the gun itself was an excellent piece of equipment which later proved its worth in the Kargil War. India had paid for the technology transfer and had the blueprints to manufacture the gun, but failed to do so. It took three decades before the Army got to acquiring the next gun for the artillery—the M777 Howitzer from the US. This was folly of the highest order. Had we manufactured the gun in the 1980s itself, it would have hastened the modernisation of the artillery by at least two decades at a much lower cost. We must not repeat such follies again. The manufacture of an advanced version of the gun, called Dhanush is only now under production and the Army has placed an order for 114 guns.


The army’s search for a 155 x 52 mm Towed Howitzer finally culminated a decade back in two vendors vying for the same. Israels’ Elbit for its ATHOS 2052 howitzer and the French Nexter, for its Trajan gun. Elbit was in partnership with Bharat Forge and Nexter with Larsen and Toubro. In 2019, Elbit won the contract. But in the meantime, DRDO had also got in the act and made the Advanced Towed Artillery Gun System (ATAGS), which is currently under the last stages of trials and has 95 percent indigenous content. For manufacture of ATAGS, the DRDO is partnering with Bharat Forge Limited, Mahindra Defence Naval System and Tata Power Strategic Engineering Division.


There appears to be a lot of confusion in the thought process, both in the artillery directorate and in the MoD, over the way ahead. We have two guns now, the indigenous ATAGS being priced at Rs 15 crore and the ATHOS at 10.5 crore, with Bharat Forge a partner in both. Faster decision making would have resulted in India already having a few hundred howitzers from Elbit, and the indigenous manufacture of the same could have started by now. This is one area which needs great reform. A time bound acquisition procedure is an imperative and we need to build the eco-system for the same.


The second is the productivity factor of the public sector work force. While it is appreciated that certain costs must have been sunk in by DRDO in research and development of ATAGS, it cannot lead to such a wide price differential. The same occurred also in the Rafale fighter aircraft deal, wherein the fighter jets to be manufactured in India were projected at a higher cost than the ones bought in full built condition from Dassault. The figure below gives a comparison carried out ten years ago between a private sector company (Ashok Leyland) and a public sector company (Vehicle Factory Jabalpur) in terms of cost and worker productivity. The situation across the board is not too dissimilar, and calls for great reforms in the public sector entities and in the working of the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB).



Indicator

VFJ

AL

VFJ

AL


2008-2009

2008-2009

2009-2010

2009-2010

No of Employees

4809

11938

4368

13,662

Output per Employee

0.15

0.49

0.17

0.50

Per unit cost of Employee

3.83

1.04

4.79

1.04



An Acquisition Methodology


A look into advanced weapon systems and platforms acquired recently or which are in the process of being acquired indicates that huge budgetary support is required for the same. The S 400 deal with Russia comes at a cost of Rs 40,000 crore. The deal for 36 Rafale fighter jets from France cost India Rs 59,000 and weapon acquisitions from the US, largely for attack helicopters, strategic lift aircraft and artillery guns also came at a heavy price. Add to this the acquisition of missiles and other weaponry from Israel and the overall cost of defence imports gives a very grim picture. Reversing this trend will take time but that would depend on developing indigenous manufacturing capability in multiple sectors.  


It would be worth considering buying into technology for creating an eco-system which at present does not exist. An example is in the aviation sector. Brazil’s Embraer was up for sale and Boeing was in talks with them for the last two years for purchase of 70 percent shares of the entity for USD 4.2 billion. The deal however fell through in April 2020. What happens if India was to get into such a deal and buy out the Embraer which manufactures single aisle aircraft. As of now, Hindustan Aeronautical Limited (HAL), a Defence Public Sector Undertaking (DPSU), is the only major entity in the country in the aviation sector. For the aviation industry to come of age in India, the country needs to build its own passenger aircraft. So, if an Indian corporate acquires Embraer, backed by the government, it would give a huge boost to the aviation sector. Government support would be required to make it a leveraged buyout (LBO), enabling the banks to be the lenders for the deal. By 2040, India would need at least 2,300 such aircraft, at a cost of USD 320 billion. Indigenous manufacture would create tremendous economic opportunities as well as an indigenous eco-system as also provide strategic benefits. Starting from scratch to build such aircraft would take decades of effort and would mean diverting precious resources to the effort. LBO’s is an option India must seriously consider. We would need to change our operating methodology to execute such deals which can give great payoffs over a period of time. Buy outs can be considered for other sectors too, like semiconductor manufacturing. This involves front-end fab manufacturing and the back-end assembly, including packaging and testing. India has done well in design and verification for the semiconductor industry. However, it continues to import 100% of the chips, memory and display. The cost of imports of semiconductor chips alone is a staggering USD 10-12 billion every year.


Conclusion

While financial outlays are important, much can be achieved in military modernisation though improved acquisition procedures, informed decision making, improved productivity of the public sector work force, co-opting the private sector in a big way in the manufacturing process and by creating a business friendly eco-system. We also need to shed our ideological chains with respect to exports of weapons and platforms. Thankfully, this process has begun. Most importantly, we need to have a clear vision of the future and plan accordingly. Much can still be achieved with what we have, should we set our minds to do so.

Saturday, January 2, 2021

The Blue in India’s Flag

India’s Flag is oft called the Tricolour, for its three horizontal stripes in colours of saffron, white and green. But what is often missed is the fourth colour in the flag—the blue wheel in the centre. Prime Minister Narendra Modi made reference to this, in an address he delivered at the commissioning of the ‘Barracuda’ in Mauritius on 12 March 2015. Referring to the blue wheel, he said, “To me, the blue chakra or wheel in India’s flag represents the potential of the blue revolution, or the ocean economy”.

The Barracuda—a 1,300-tonne offshore patrol vessel (OPV) built by Garden Reach Shipyard & Engineers (GRSE), was the first warship ordered by a foreign country from an Indian shipyard. In his address at the commissioning of the ‘Barracuda,’ Prime Minister Modi sketched out India’s vision of the Indian Ocean. He spoke of the criticality of the Indian Ocean to the future of the world, and stated that all would prosper when the seas were safe, secure and free for all. The vision he articulated contained five key elements. These were:

  • India will do everything to safeguard its mainland and islands and defend its interests. Equally, India will work to ensure a safe, secure and stable Indian Ocean Region.
  • India will deepen economic and security cooperation with her friends in the region, especially her maritime neighbours and island states and will  continue to build their maritime security capacities and economic strength.
  • Deepen mutual understanding on maritime challenges and strengthen our collective ability to address them through regional mechanisms for maritime cooperation.
  • Seek a more integrated and cooperative future in the region that enhances the prospects for sustainable development for all.
  • The primary responsibility for peace, stability and prosperity in the Indian Ocean rests on those who live in the region. However, India recognises the fact that there are other nations around the world with strong interests and stakes in the region and India is deeply engaged with them.

From the above, emerged the acronym SAGAR or Security and Growth for All in the Region, which has become the fulcrum of India’s vision in the Indian Ocean and in the wider Indo-Pacific region. It is a tool for India’s development, and towards that end, this shared marine space would need to be protected. In a sense, this represents a transition in the Indian thought process, which for long has thought of itself as a continental power, but now also sees itself through a maritime lens.


Indian history records a long maritime tradition, covering a period of over five millennia. As far back as 2500 BCE, the Harappans built tidal docks at Lothal for berthing and servicing ships, and were perhaps the first in the world to do so. India’s strong naval tradition finds reference in her sacred scriptures, as also in Kautilya’s Arthashastra and in other texts. The Chola empire saw the zenith of ancient Indian sea power, but with the decline of the Cholas towards the end of the 13th century, Indian sea power declined. The Arabs gradually edged out the Indians from the sea faring trade and were themselves sidelined when the Portuguese came on the scene and assumed control of the seas in the early sixteenth century. There was a brief period which saw the resurgence of Indian sea power with the rise of the Marathas. Maharaja Shivaji had started creating his own navy, which reached the zenith of its power under the command of notable admirals like Sidhoji Gujar and Kanhoji Angre. But with the death of Angre, Maratha naval power declined.


An interesting aspect to be noted is the co-relation of India’s economic prosperity and its control of the seas. As India lost control of the seas, external forces entered to rule over the land, which in turn led to India’s economic decline. Post independence, the Indian security establishment had its focus on the land borders, as India had inimical neighbours. But now, maritime trade is becoming a key indicator in India’s growth story. And hence the need for a vibrant Ocean policy, emphasising the need to keep the sea lanes free, safe and secure for all.


Soon after assuming office for the second term in May 2019, the Narendra Modi-led government set a target of taking the economy to USD 5 trillion over the next five years. This was a daunting and an ambitious undertaking, but given that the fundamentals of the economy were strong, it was not something which could not be achieved. The pandemic caused by Covid 19, a virus that emanated from China, will certainly delay the timelines by perhaps another three to four years, so we could be looking at 2028 to achieve the laid down target. But a more important point to note is that to achieve the target, greater dependence has to be on the blue economy, which conceptualises the oceans as “shared development spaces”.


The World Bank has defined Blue Economy as the “sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth, improved livelihood and jobs, and ocean ecosystem health”. India’s development effort will increasingly be dependent on the Blue Economy and the Oceanic space thus becomes vital for India. According to the Ministry of Shipping, around 95% of India's trading by volume and 70% by value is done through maritime transport. India’s Sagarmala programme is designed to promote port-led development in the country through harnessing India's 7,500 km long coastline, 14,500 km of potentially navigable waterways and strategic location on key international maritime trade routes. A total of 189 projects have been identified for modernisation of ports involving an investment of Rs 1.42 trillion (USD 22 billion) by the year 2035. Peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific is hence a key requirement for India’s development agenda.


Growing Chinese naval and air power in the South China Sea and its expansionist designs in the region, have understandably raised concerns, not only amongst the ASEAN countries, but also among other regional powers, primarily the US, Japan, Australia and India. China’s ‘nine dash line’ is being unilaterally imposed on China’s smaller neighbours, in utter disregard to the UN Conventions. Evidently, there is a need to push back against Chinese expansionism and towards a rule based order. 


The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, popularly called the Quad—an informal strategic forum between the United States, Japan, Australia and India, is at present being maintained by semi-regular summits, information exchanges and military drills between member countries. There is a need to formalise the Quad and make it agenda and rule based, to prevent Chinese hegemony in the region. This would encourage some if not all the ASEAN countries to join the grouping, which will likely also see the United Kingdom, France and some other European nations coming in. 


A united effort is required to check Chinese expansionism, especially as the UN appears to be singularly ineffective in this regard. India must play a leading role towards that end, confronted as she is by Chinese hegemonist attitudes in its northern and Eastern borders. This is better done sooner rather than later, otherwise the world may well witness another moment, where lack of decisive action when required, led to the Second World War. Keeping the sea lanes of communication safe, secure and free for all, as stated by Prime Minister Modi, must hence be a priority not only for India, but for all who value peace and freedom.