A VISION FOR BHARAT

The Union Budget 2023-24 has been characterised as the first budget for "Amrit Kaal"— A vision to see a transformed Bharat by the time the nation celebrates its Independence centenary on 15 August 2047. For the first time, we have a long-term road map of what Bharat should be in terms of its human and developmental index, with clear markers for reaching the desired end state over the course of the next quarter century.

This, by itself is a quantum leap forward from the incremental development policies followed for the most part since 1947. There was a hesitancy in envisioning a great and prosperous Bharat, which perhaps was a result of a socialist mind-set, mired in a philosophy that pedalled poverty as virtue and derided wealth as being sinful and corrupting. For decades since independence,  the state set about controlling the means of production and telling the people what, how and how much they could produce and at what cost. The bureaucracy became all powerful as the arbiters of the nation's destiny and this soon morphed into a political-bureaucratic-criminal nexus. 

This was a recipe for disaster and by 1990, the nation was on the verge of bankruptcy. Then came the era of reforms, which since the last decade, have taken on a more focussed approach with major initiatives like the rolling out of the GST and the JAM trinity (Jan Dhan Yojana which has provided access to India's poor to the banking sector, Aadhar—a unique biometric identifier and the Mobile penetration). This has enabled targeted provision of benefits to millions below the poverty line with near zero pilferage and brought about a sense of inclusivity to an unparalleled extent. Rural housing, electricity access, toilets for all, are but a few of the myriad schemes which has seen wide penetration across the length and breadth of Bharat in a truly transformative manner. 

Budget 2023-24 builds on the India story which saw a rejuvenation in 2014 after a decade of stalled economic reforms. There is renewed focus on digitisation, indigenous defence manufacture, green energy, transparency in government, skilling of the work force, education sector reforms and the like. A host of initiatives have been announced to unleash the full potential of all citizens. In this new Bharat, there  is little doubt that every citizen will stand up to be counted. But a slew of challenges remain.

It would be naive to think that the major powers will look on benignly as India moves ahead. A strong and economically powerful Bharat poses a threat to the economic interests of other powers. An Atmanirbhar Bharat would be an economic challenger, and with defence indigenisation taking place at a rapid rate, a rival to the worlds military industrial complex as an arms exporter. So, there will be attempts made by both India's enemies as well as those with whom India has friendly relations, but who may view India as a serious competitor in future, to sabotage the Bharat growth story. An inkling of what the coming year holds can be seen in attempts being made to create rift in society by inciting the public. The ham-handed manner in which the BBC tried to inflame passions by making a documentary on the post-Godhra riots of 2002, is a case in point. Another is the hit job done by a US based short-seller on the Adani business group. We are now seeing fringe Khalistani elements raising their ugly heads in a clear bid at destabilising the country. We are likely to see radical Muslim elements within the country creating discord over inane issues. There will be others with perceived grievances, who will be funded by external actors like the George Soros Open Society Foundation, the Ford Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation, all of whom, through a network of NGOs, will attempt to spread a divisive agenda. And in all this they will receive support from both China and Pakistan, who have their own axe to grind. Unfortunately, there will be elements of certain political parties who have their own agenda, who will also lend political support to such groups.

But these challenges are an intrinsic part of trying to create a strong and vibrant Bharat. While the Government can provide the vision and the policy support, it is also up to each and every citizen to rise to the occasion, to achieve the objectives of Atmanirbharta. The nations public and private sectors too will have to play their role. The same goes for the nation's bureaucracy. Can they measure up to the Prime Minister's vision and play an enabling and supportive role? Therein lies the challenge. 

Published in the India Foundation Journal, 1 March 2023

The Ongoing Russo-Ukraine War: Taking Stock after one Year

On 24 February 2022, the Russian military carried out a four pronged attack on Ukraine, setting in motion a string of geopolitical events which reverberated across the globe. Today, as a consequence of the Russian invasion, new alliances are being formed, Russia has been placed under sanctions, Europe and Japan are militarising, China has moved closer to Russia and India is poised delicately, having to balance its relations with Russia which has been a long-term friend and ally as also with the United States and the West, with which India is seeking closer collaboration in the defence and economic spheres, especially with respect to cooperation in the field of upper end technology.

The four-front Russian invasion of 24 February was marked by a ground attack with mechanised forces from the North from Belarus towards Kyiv, another assault from the Northeast towards Kharkiv, a Southeastern thrust towards the Donbas region onto Donetsk and Luhansk and a Southern thrust from the South, from Crimea. All the attacks were supported by air power. The objective was not simple capture of territory, but to execute a regime change in Kyiv and instal a government which would be friendly to Russia. 

Most Russians regard Ukraine as a country with which they are strongly interwoven with many Russians expressing the view that Ukraine is ‘an inalienable part of Russia itself.’ President Vladimir Putin had stated of Ukraine that ‘We are one people.’ Post the Euromaidan protests of 2014, which Moscow believed were triggered by the Western powers inimical to Russia and which led to the overthrow of the Yanukovich regime, Russia captured Crimea in a swift retaliatory operation and after a referendum, merged Crimea with the Russian Federation. From a Russian perspective, the regime change carried out via the Euromaidan protests implied nothing less than ‘an existential threat,’ to Russia, which explains why the Russians moved swiftly to capture Crimea. It is important to mention that Crimea, which till the 1950s was a part of Russia, was ceded to Ukraine when the entire region was under the USSR. It has, for the most part, a Russian speaking population, but its importance to Russia lies also in the fact that the Naval base at Sevastopol hosts the Russian Black Sea Fleet. This area had been leased to Russia by Ukraine.

The Donbas region, on Ukraine's South-Eastern border with Russia, which too has a large Russian speaking population, also declared independence from Ukraine and sought help from Moscow, soon after Russia annexed Crimea. The fighting that ensued in the Donbas led to the Minsk Accord on 5 September 2014, but it was violated soon thereafter and fighting resumed. A new ceasefire, Minsk II was negotiated on 12 February 2015, but the Accord remained unimplemented for the most part, and the conflict remained stalemated and unresolved. Russian fears intensified over the years due to measures being taken by Ukraine to officially join NATO. That was a red line for Moscow and was the causative factor for Russia to carry out a military campaign against Ukraine, primarily to instal a more friendly regime in Kyiv. This was the causative factor for the Ukraine war which began on 24 February 2022 and which continues till date.

The war has, however, shown the Russian military as well as its military leadership in poor light. The operations conducted by the Russian military in February and March 2022 made little headway. More importantly, the political objective of executing a regime change were not only not successful but resulted in uniting the Ukrainian nation against Russia. After one year of conflict, Russia has captured most of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts of the Donbas region as also Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts. These were important operational objectives which has given the Russians a land link to Crimea, besides providing greater control over the Black Sea and providing depth to Crimea from an invasion from the North. President Volodymyr Yelenskky of Ukraine is, however, doggedly holding on and continues to fight, largely with liberal supplies of arms and ammunition from US and the West. Large parts of Ukraine have however been destroyed by the war, which has also led to 10-15 million Ukrainian refugees seeking shelter elsewhere.

The war appears to be stalemated as of now, but the picture could change from March this year, when the winter recedes. Ukraine has the wherewithal to fight for a prolonged period of time as they are fighting for their country and as such, their motivation levels are high. Europe, however, is fast getting tired of the war and their commitment to keep supporting Ukraine is increasingly coming under strain. The destruction of the over 1200 km. long Nord Stream natural gas pipeline has added to European woes as they are facing huge and critical shortages of energy and shifting to energy sources from other suppliers is adding on to the costs. The US, however, is not directly impacted by the war and will continue to support the Ukraine war effort. This suits their long-term strategic interests as a prolonged war will weaken Russia and energise the military industrial complex of the US. The recent unannounced visit of US President, Mr Joe Biden to Kyiv on 20 February 2023, is a pointer in this direction, wherein Mr Biden stated that the US will back Ukraine in its fight against Russia for "as long as it takes".

The Russians have the wherewithal and the will to fight a prolonged war, but the number of casualties they are suffering may soon turn public opinion against the war—a prospect that would not be to the liking of the Russian President, Mr Putin. They will still aim at regime change to end the war, but the prospects of the war coming to a close are dim, largely because neither side is prepared to back down. A ceasefire along the existing front line would not be acceptable to Ukraine who would insist on a restoration of the status quo as it existed on 24 February 2022. Russia may accept a ceasefire on the existing frontline, but they will not accept a ceasefire which demands a return of the captured territories to Ukraine. That is an untenable proposition, as it would mean giving back hard fought gains where the Russians have sacrificed thousands of lives. The war could however end if one side faces a military defeat, with the victor forcing terms on the vanquished. This appears unlikely as of now.

Predicting the future is always hazardous and so it is with the Ukraine War. I would assess that sanctions have had limited impact on Russia, but Europe has been a major sufferer of the impact of sanctions. High energy prices have led to a worsening of most economies leading to severe shortages in many countries in the West. They are looking for an early end to the war. One impact which the war has had on Europe, is that NATO has been energised. Japan and the European Union will now be spending more on defence— a prospect that pleases the US as it keeps the EU outside Russian influence, especially after the destruction of the Nord Stream gas pipelines, which many analysts believe has been the handiwork of the US.

This summer, Russia may continue with a limited offensive and attempt to capture Odessa. That would effectively cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea and make it a land-locked country. From a position of strength, Russia could then declare a unilateral ceasefire. Alternately, it may attempt to take the entire area East of the Dneiper River, making the river the new boundary line with Ukraine. This will, however, be hard to sustain.

Internationally, new power alignments are taking place, which are reflective of a return to the period of the Cold War. On one side we have an axis appearing encompassing China-Russia and Iran. On the other we have an alignment of the US, Western Europe and Japan. India will pursue its national interests which at times may be in sync with one side or the other, but will be driven by national interest.

India's interests in the Indo-Pacific align closely with the US and hence it remains an important part of the Quad grouping. However, India has a different set of interests in the Eurasian heartland, which spells divergence from US views. There is no dichotomy in pursuing different interests on the continental shelf and in the maritime domain, as in both cases, India's policies are aligned to suit India's national interest. Navigating the same in the coming years will require a great deal of dexterity.

The geopolitical outlines of tomorrow’s world remain undefined for now, but will become clearer in the years ahead. For the moment, the war has notably catalysed European integration and has pushed Russia closer to the Chinese embrace. But India will not be drawn into the power play of any one group and will continue to pursue its national interest. This reflects the emergence of a new, vibrant and confident India, which is ready to stand by itself, on regional and international issues. On Ukraine, India will push for peace, without getting entangled with any side. That perhaps is the best option to bring about peace between the parties to the conflict. 

Published in Organiser - 24 Feb 2023

Government-Change Toolkit Launched for 2024

A notable feature of global events as they unfolded since the turn of the century was the occurrence of mass protests aimed at paralysing governments with the underlying purpose of carrying out regime change. This was another form of colonialism by major powers to get a more favourable and pliable government in power. As an example, the 2003 Rose Revolution in Georgia which forced President Eduard Shevardnadze to resign also marked the end of the Soviet era leadership of the country. But the process to achieve this outcome had begun three years earlier, with huge funds being received by opposition parties and NGOs in Georgia from foreign governments and international organisations, to drum up anti-government sentiment. One such organisation was the Open Society Institute funded by George Soros. 

The Orange Revolution in Ukraine in 2004 again led to the annulment of the election result and the inauguration of Viktor Yushchenko as the new President in January 2005, after an election rerun. A decade later, the Euromaidan protests in 2014 once again led to a regime change as the incumbent President chose to have closer ties with Russia rather than with the European Union. The present war in Ukraine, which began a year earlier on 24 February 2022, can largely be traced to Russian concerns of the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, which would impinge directly on Russian security concerns.

The wave of pro-democracy protests and uprisings that took place in the Middle East and North Africa beginning in 2010 and 2011, are now commonly termed as the Arab Spring. This led to a change of regime in Tunisia and Egypt and spread to Yemen, Bahrain, Libya, and Syria in the early months of 2011. The protests led to bloody and protracted struggles between opposition groups and ruling regimes and the area remain volatile till date. 

It would be naive to believe that these protests were the result of a sudden awakening and desire for democratic norms among the local population. Local grievances were repeatedly highlighted and protests were conducted over long periods of time to bring about a magnification effect which resulted in regime change. We can see the same happening in India, ever since the NDA government was swept into power in 2014. Since then, deliberate attempt being made to create discord in society as seen by the protests on the alleged attack on churches, the CAA protests which led to some parts of the capital being placed under siege for months, protest by farmers groups, protests by climate activists, environmentalists and the like. These protests were organised, agenda based events which had huge funding from interested parties. The aim was regime change. The efforts of those who wanted a compliant government in the Centre could not fructify in 2019, where the ruling dispensation won an even bigger mandate than in 2014. Now, with the elections to the Lok Sabha just a year away, the process to create discord and disharmony in the country has started once again in earnest. This is a typical toolkit operation, the first salvo of which was fired by the release of a documentary by the BBC on the post Godhra riots, followed soon thereafter by a hit job on a leading industrialist of India by a US based firm called Hindenberg.

The BBC documentary was released a few days before India's Republic Day. It was a one-sided production, filled with inaccuracies, innuendo, hyperbole and downright distortion of facts, in an attempt to attribute culpability to the then Chief Minister of Gujarat and his government as being complicit in the riots. The people interviewed in the documentary were all ideologically motivated with slanted views, and were working towards promoting an agenda aimed at political destabilisation. So it was not surprising to see the names of people from discredited organisations like the Wire, Caravan and Newsclick as also individuals with far-left leanings like Arundhati Suzanne Roy and Christophe Jaffrelot spewing venom, devoid of facts. It was also no surprise that Karan Thapar chose to interview Jack Straw, a discredited British politician who was the then foreign secretary under Tony Blairs government. Conveniently left out of the documentary was the fact that it was muslim mobs which set fire to the train, killing innocent men, women and children, which was the causative factor of the riots. But surprisingly, the very mature and focussed role of the government in acting quickly to diffuse the situation was left out. Communal riots of far worse nature have taken place in India earlier too, but this was the first time that the Army was called out within 24 hours of the riots breaking out on 28 February. By 1 March, the Army was deployed and by late evening had started dousing the flames. They would have been deployed in an even faster time-frame, but at that time, the troops were deployed in the border and getting them together and sending them by air took some time. A lot of false reporting took place later stating that it took four days for the army to be called in. That was a blatant lie, with the spin doctors conveniently forgetting to tell people that February had only 28 days.

The documentary is a hit job by the BBC and a badly executed one. This organisation, which boasts of its credibility has played to an agenda, as it conveniently left out the fact that India's Apex Court has reviewed every aspect of what happened during those troubled times and has conclusively debunked the lie that the state was complicit in the riots. The timing of the documentary, over two decades after the riots, when the matter has been thoroughly investigated and the guilty have been punished, stands testimony to its biased nature. Why the BBC also chose to make a mention of the revocation of Article 35A and the operative parts of Article 370 as also of the CAA boggles the mind. These later events have no connection with what happened in Gujarat.

So, what was the BBC documentary aimed at? It appears to be an attempt to whip up communal passions before the 2024 elections. Ram Madhav has rightly called the documentary a damp squib, but nevertheless, it is merely the first of many such attacks that are likely to come up over the months ahead, leading to the 2024 elections. The aim appears to be to cause communal polarisation and the coming days will see an escalation of this trend. A responsible journalist like James Dorsey has also written two articles in which he characterises the RSS as a regressive anti-Muslim organisation. While Dorsey is too respectable a journalist to be a part of the toolkit gang, his views do tend to widen existing cleavages, when the Indian establishment is trying to bring communities closer together.

The hit job on Adani by the Hindenburg short seller group is also aimed at weakening India economically. We can expect other leading industrialists to be targeted, albeit in different ways. Ram Dev's Patanjali could be next on the list, but even prominent and well established business conglomerates like the Tata group and the Birla group will be on the radar of foreign entities. Economic turmoil, in conjunction with mass protests on the social front, whipping up sentiments on communal and caste lines will be the likely targets of the tool kit operators, looking at regime change. A politically strong and economically dynamic Bharat is anathema to those external powers that would like a subservient and pliable India. They have the money power to instigate protests and violence within the country. Keeping such forces and their Indian supporters at bay, will be the defining challenge for the coming year.

Published in the Sunday Guardian 5 Feb 2024.